2018 Kentucky Derby Pool 1 analysis

 

In studying the Future Wager, I kept to last year’s procedure for handicapping, duplicated from my previous post. Class, Churchill Downs pace, longest win, pace progress, AWD, run pace.
I kept the top 7 in each category, and added up the ranks in variables. Here first I’m listing the best of the rest, in the event one of my horses has too good of the odds.
8th: COPPER BULLET: Grade 2 winner of the Saratoga Special, following a 2nd in the Bashford Manor at CD, and his maiden win there with a 93 Bris. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/cd/2017/5/25/1/race-1-msw-at-cd-on-5-25-17
The 93 score ties for best CD effort of the 23 horses here. Lifetime runs: 94, 88, 93, 88.
7th: TIZ MISCHIEF: Won at maiden level in 3rd try at Keeneland 10/7, 8.5 furlongs, 90 BrIs.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/kee/2017/10/7/4/race-4-msw-at-kee-on-10-7-17

Prior race was 93 at CD, matching Copper Bullet’s best here. Maiden debut was 79, so the progress is hopeful.
6th: SPORTING CHANCE. Winner of the Grade 1 Hopeful after winning vs 83k maidens. Lifetime pace numbers: 98, 89, 79. Making good pace progress.
And here’s the top 5:
AVERY ISLAND Winner of the Grade 2 Nashua at Aqueduct on 11/5. Good AWD numbers (Street Sense/Kinda Spicy by AP Indy) Won maiden race at 8.5 furlongs.

UNTAMED DOMAIN: Won the Grade 2 Summer Stakes, 2nd last out in the BC Juvenile Turf with 89 Bris; 3rd in the G3 8.5 furlong With Anticipation. Good AWD numbers (Animal Kingdom/Ciao, out of Lear Fan). Progressing nicely in pace; 4 gains out of a possible race in each lifetime effort.

FREE DROP BILLY Winner of the Grade 1 8.5 furlongs Breeders Futurity, 2nd in the Hopeful (98 Bris) and Sanford. 9th last time out in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Union Rags/Trensa, out of Giant’s Causeway. Positive pace progress, with best at 98 coming in early September.

GOOD MAGIC: Already a superstar, winning the BC Juvenile while still a maiden. 2nd in the Champagne. Curlin/Glinda The Good, out of Hard Spun. Lifetime numbers: 105, 96, 92. Ideal pace progress, Grade 1 wins and 8.5 furlong victory
BOLT D’ORO is my most highly favored pick. 3 wins and a 3rd: Won his maiden debut vs 60k at Del Mar in August, then the Bashford Manor Futurity, and the Front Runner, then third in the BC Juvenile Medaglia D’Oro/Globe Trot, out of AP Indy. Lifetime numbers: 99, 105, 94, 91. Also with good pace progress and 8.5 furlong victory.

The plan is to wager on my top 5 for wins, and top 3 to each other in exactas, along with the field selections.

 

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