2017 Derby Sire Future Wager analysis

At last the results of both future wagers can be revealed. The variables involved are the same as in previous years:
AWD of the sire + grandsire of the horse (or the sire himself)
CLASS: Highest grade win by a horse
CD PACE: Fastest race at Churchill Downs by this horse
RUN PACE: Binomial method of determining current pace projection of horse for next race. Using the main Brisnet speed figures, the fastest is ‘the speed”. When using call numbers, I generally determine who has the best tactical speed.
LONG: Longest distance win by a horse
PACE PROGRESS: Any horse who has run before 9/1 and has since run faster before turning 3. Borrowed from Dave Liftin.
I add up who has most variables, and factor the top 5 for wagering. I keep others underneath this list in case the odds are very good.

WAGER GUIDELINES:
Betting $2 win with my top 5 in the Sire Future Wager. Avoid horses who are better than 6-1.
Continuing my theme from last year, I will play exactas between my top 3 and the field $22 in all.

Here’s who are in that 6-to-11 ranking…in the event I have to eliminate one of my top 5

11th: OVERANALYZE: Over Rider last time out posted a 90 Bris rating vs 40k claiming, 2nd as beaten favorite in that one. 7 offspring with pace progress. Longest win: 8.5 furlongs.
10th: WAR FRONT: 7.40 AWD is one of the better ranks here. 6 offspring with pace progress. Best class win: US Navy Flag, with 2 Grade 1 wins in GB.
Darley Dewhurst Stakes:

Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes:

9th: STREET SENSE: McKinzie’s lone run was on 10/28 vs 50k maidens, 100 Bris, winning going away by 5.5 lengths. 8.5 furlongs long distance win. Best class win: Grade 2 Nashua on 11/5 at Aqueduct, won by Avery Island.

8th: MORE THAN READY: Copper Bullet’s 2nd race was his maiden breaker, 93 Bris over 5 furlongs at CD.
Currently 4-2-2-0, including his other win, the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. Longest distance win: 8.5 furlongs.

 

7th: TIZNOW: 7.60 AWD. 6 horses with pace progress. Best win: Grade 1 Hopeful by Sporting Chance (now 3-2-1-0) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLLzW7_JseM

 

6th: UNION RAGS: 10 horses with pace progress. 8.5 furlongs longest distance win. Best class win: Grade 1 Breeders Futurity by Free Drop Billy.

 

Now for the prime top 5:
5th: CURLIN: 7.60 AWD. Run pace of 99 (Good Magic’s lifetime Bris: 105, 96, 92). Longest win: 8.5 furlongs. Best class win: Breeders Cup Juvenile, also Good Magic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce30z5aHLA4

4th: INTO MISCHIEF: Best run at Churchill is 93, by Tiz Mischief, who ran 2nd in his 2nd maiden race. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/kee/2017/10/7/4/race-4-msw-at-kee-on-10-7-17

 

Run pace of 93, courtesy of He’s Stylish, in maiden debut last month at Santa Anita, vs 50k maidens.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/sa/2017/10/28/8/race-8-msw-at-sa-on-10-28-17

 

3rd: TAPIT: 7.60 AWD. Best run at Churchill is also 93, by Arrival, defeating fellow 60k maidens on 11/8. Best run pace is 94, from the lone run of Airtouch, vs 83k maidens, 8/12, at Saratoga, losing by a nose. Longest distance win was 9 furlongs, by Biblical, vs 60k maidens, 11/17 at Aqueduct.
Airtouch: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/sar/2017/8/12/2/race-2-msw-at-sar-on-8-12-17

Biblical: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/aqu/2017/11/17/2/race-2-msw-at-aqu-on-11-17-17

 

2nd: SCAT DADDY: Best CD run was 90 by Combatant, defeating 60k maidens last month. 10 offspring with positive pace progress.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/cd/2017/10/29/11/race-11-msw-at-cd-on-10-29-17

Longest distance win: 8.5 furlongs. Best class win: Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, by Mendelssohn, in his US debut.
http://www.breederscup.com/races/juvenile-turf

 

1st: MEGDALIA D’ORO: 7.70 AWD. 100 run pace (Bolt D’Oro’s lifetime Bris numbers: 99, 105, 94, 91). Longest distance win: 9.5 furlongs, by Gyllen at Deauville in France, winning his maiden debut.
Best class win: Bolt D’Oro’s Grade 1 Front Runner and Del Mar Futurity, here: https://youtu.be/14ud_gPCi8I

This post was written as the pools were opening. So far, the sires taking the most money are Megdalia D’Oro, all others, and Curlin. If the pools closed now (of course, they will truly change for good on Sunday once the stakes races on Saturday are resolved), here’s who I’d wager on:
Scat Daddy, Tapit, Into Mischief, Curlin (must watch those odds) and Union Rags.

Coming a bit later, my take on Pool 1 of the Derby Future Wager.

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