Breeders Cup Classic 2017 prediction

BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC, 10 furlongs, $6 million, 3YO+.

ARROGATE had that nice 7 win streak, capped by the Dubai World Cup. Since then, a 4th in the San Diego, and 2nd in the Pacific Classic. His 124 in last year’s Travers remains the best score for this field considering the distance. Prior winner off layoff. Considerable bounce risk given his increase of 16 in Bris last time out. One of two horses I’m forgiving for a wide or tough trip yet fast performance. Best turn time of the field…gained 1.4 seconds between last two races, :24.1 last race.
My odds: 6-1.
Prediction: Not in top 6
Winning pace: slightly slower than average overall.

War Decree debuts in the US, first time Lasix. Winner in GB and Ireland, twice at Graded levels. One of 2 horses who have created a small new top against last year’s best score. This was acheived last time out at Dundalk on 9/29.
My odds: 22-1
Prediction: 6th.

Win The Space with a pretty decent record running in Cali. 0-3 at Del Mar. Gained 4 lengths on the leader last time out in the Awesome Again…finished 3rd with 100 Bris.
My odds: none.
Prediction: Worse than 6th.
Winning pace: average throughout

War Story has prior win first off layoff.Winner of the Brooklyn 3 races back; prior win was back in January in the Queens Count on a good inner track at Aqueduct. Increased by 6 points to 98 last time out in the Woodward. Waiting now 8 weeks to stretch out another furlong. 5 works, 1 local, 4 very fast, 1 bullet.
My odds: 7-5. Overlay
Prediction: winner.
Winning pace: Slow at first call, average at 2nd.

Gun Runner: 1st or 2nd in every race since 9/16, 8 races in all, and 9 races with a triple-digit Bris. Prior winner first off layoff. He’s the other horse influenced by a small new top. 114 win last out in the Woodward, ahead of last year’s 112. Gained 7 points from prior, so he might bounce. Waiting 8 weeks to stretch out. :24.1 turn time last race.
My odds: 9-1
Prediction: 4th
Winning pace: slightly faster than average throughout.

Mubtaahij won the Awesome Again last time out..first win in nearly 2 years. Best AWD numbers in the field (Dubawi/Pennegale, out of Pennekamp). Splitted time between US and Dubai. Good consistent runs, 10 of 18 in the money.
My odds: Not considered.
Prediction: Worse than 6th.

Churchill has 7 wins in 12 races, debuts in the US with Lasix for the first time. No real competitive numbers or form to consider him.
My odds: 18-1
Prediction: 5th

West Coast is 8-6-2-0, winning this year’s Travers, PA Derby, Los Alamitos Derby, Easy Goer. 108 and 112 ahead of 96 amidst her last 3…possible bounce risk. Also lacks evidence to dominate in any one variable in this great field.
My odds: none
Prediction: worse than 6th.
Winning pace: slightly faster than average throughout.

Gunnevara 9 of 13 in the money, serious pro horse who ran 2nd in the Travers with big lifetime best of 109. Could be forgiven for a tough trip in that one, tho a big bounce risk. Prior winner first off layoff. Notably he’s the only deep closer in the field.
My odds: 18-1. Almost enough for an overlay pick.
Prediction: 3rd.
Winning pace: Average at first call, slow 2nd.

Pavel the least experience of these, but is 4-2-0-1, with a win in the Smarty Jones. Lifetime speed figures: 95, 96, 100, 108. Bounce risk considerable.
My odds: none
Prediction: Out of the top 6.
Winning pace: Very slow throughout.

Collected 11-8-1-0, winner of 4 straight. 111 lifetime best 2 races back. Last out 110 here in the Pacific Classic, best Del Mar race of this field. Prior first win off layoff. Easily the speed of the field, best pace pattern as well. :24.1 turn time last out.
My odds: 6-1.
Prediction: 2nd.
Winning pace: slightly faster than average throughout.

Top 4: 4-11-9-5
Overlays: 4, 9

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