Oklahoma Classics 2017 handicapping

I’m still in the back of the pack for
this year’s ThoroEnduro contest at
Remington Park, but am confident I will
outlast others and land on some good
value horses. Today is one such day to
catch up, as there is a 6-race day that
counts instead of the usual 3. Today is
OK Classics Night, with the best state-
bred horses competing in various
categories. Contest races are 4-7 and
9-10.

Race 4 is the OK Classics Lassie Stakes,
6 furlongs, 100k purse on a fast dirt
track. Top 3 here are 6-3-2: Talkin
Shannon, Annieruok and Cherokee Lass;
all three not expected to take much
money at all and should shock those
betting favorites. Projected overlays
include each of my top 3 selections,
along with Wimbledonbondgirl.
Talkin Shannon won her 2nd maiden race
here at the 42k level vs statebreds,
with a increase from 42 to 69 Bris. Only
early-presser type in the field.
AnnieruOK has the best turn time between
her two lifetime starts, :23 and :23.3,
plus that gain of .3. 74 Bris last out
facing 75k OC/nx2 fillies with a wide
and tough traffic trip. Best AWD numbers
in this field, courtesy of dam sire
Allawinir
Cherokee Lass has 4 starts, still a
maiden. Lifetime best of 60 set 2 races
ago, bounced to 55 last out as a first-
time Lasix recipient under similar
conditions.
Wimbledonbondgirl also a maiden did gain
in turn time despite downturn in speed
figure; carries just 114 today; small
gain vs leader last time.

Race 5: OK Classics Distaff. 145k for
fillies/mares 3YO+, 1 mile and 70 yards.

Top 3: 4-6-7; the highly favored Steel
Cut, then Another Bond Girl, and Sunday
Night Miss. Projected overlays: none.
Not the best race to wager, as my top 3
match the ML standard exactly. Sunday
Night Miss forged 5 straight new tops,
last out an 83 here on 9/15. Track bias
favoring sprinters (43% win rate for the
distance, plus 16% for posts 4-7).
Carries just 113 here, and is waiting
the longest to stretch out.

Race 6 is the OK Classics Sprint, at 6
furlongs for 3YOs+, 130k purse.
Top 3: 8-4-6 Johnny Whip, Star’s
Valentino, Mr. N; 2 longshots ahead of a
favorite. Projected overlays: Johnny
Whip, Star’s Valentino and Hunter’s
Humor. Good betting race here.
Johnny’s Whip has the best AWD numbers
via damsire Seeking The Gold. 101
lifetime best at the distance. 4 works
in prep, all at RP, all very fast.
Star’s Valentino is the lone early
closer of the field. The 8YO gelding
might need a slightly soft pace
throughout. :22.2 turn time last out,
with a 85 Bris, tho he ran 5 wide and
couldn’t maintain the speed.
Hunter’s Humor gained .8 in turn time
from his previous start. Carries just
117 here; waiting since 9/8 to stretch
from 5 furlongs.

Race 7: OK Classics Cup; 8.5 furlongs
for 3YOs+, 175k purse. Top 3: 2-1-9;
highly favored Shotgun Kowboy, value
horse Makin the Dough, and longshot
Phantom Trip. Overlays: Phantom Trip,
Makin the Dough, Suite Gossip.
Makin the Dough won the Will Rogers
Handicap, then was 2nd in a stakes race
here on 9/15, surging from 75 to a
lifetime best 85. I like that he did
this 1st race after layoff, with
improvements at each call.
Suite Gossip 2nd race since reclaim by
Brent Charlton, who is 0-19 at the meet.
Improved on leader last time out, he did
jump from 69 to 78 while going up in
class by 14k and switch from Houston to
here. Chances are Brent must see
something good in this horse.
Phantom Trip removes blinkers for this
race; 6-3-1-0 record at RP and is the
defending champion of this race.

Race 9 is the OK Classics Distaff. Top
3: 4-9-3…Okie Diva, Showtime Sis,
Mischievous Misty. Top 2 are overlays,
along with 6, Master’s Bouquet.

Okie Diva won last year’s Lassie here,
with lifetime best 81. Peaked 2 races
later with 92, bounced a 2nd time to 68
last time out. 6-2-3-0 lifetime,
carrying just 113 today. :21.4 turn time
last time out, a gain of 1.2 seconds
despite the bounce.
Showtime Sis’s best mark at RP was 96
last November, stil best of these.
Looked great first after layoff with
gain from 92 to 101 at 2nd call, overall
gain of 74 to 80 and half-length on
leader by 2nd call.
Master’s Bouquet with best AWD numbers
(Foreign Policy/Shhh Hush Hush, out of
Real Quiet). Prior winner 1st off
layoff. Exploded to lifetime best 86
from 76. 1st or 2nd at each call in the
last 4 races, competing vs maidens and
25k and 43k allowance runners. 4 works at RP since last, all very fast, 1 a bullet.

Race 10 is the OK Turf Classic; 8.5 furlongs for 3YOs; 130k purse. Top 3: 5-8-7: Charlie Webb, Ibaka, Perfect To Please. Overlays: Charlie Webb and Runandyrun.

Charlie Webb is the lone early closer here and may benefit from track bias: his run style has won 3 of 7 races at the distance. 2 works since the Red Earth here on 9/24, both fast, last one a bullet.
Runandyrun 3rd race under reclaim by Tyrone Shaw, 2 winners in 18 races. Both races at this distance have been won by closers and he’s the only other one in the race.

Ranwick picks for Everest Day 10/14

Being a bit of a rookie at Aussie racing, I noticed a lack of variables I’d normally use.  Without the benefit of Brisnet as the provider of stats, there was no info on run-style, track bias, or lifetime speed ratings to compare runners with.   Despite this, I managed to construct picks for 8 races….and here they are:

Race 1: 5-1   Zamex, Mercurial Lad.     Zamex bounced from 77 to 70 since a barrier trial. 76 at 7 furlongs lifetime is the best of these at the distance. Seems to have the fastest speed figures. Positive jockey switch to Tye Angland.

Race 2: 1-2   Two horse race on paper, and that’s how I see it…Santos over Spin here with no real $ to make this one interesting.

Race 3:  1-7-4  Regimen, Workdrinks, Sweet Deal.  ML top 3 also, so probably one to pass up.

Race 4: 6-8-7  After All That, Pumpkin Pie, Darts Away.   After All That 3rd in ML odds, best track score of the field, gained somewhat on the leader last time out. Positive jockey switch to Robert Thompson

Race 5: 4-8-9   Harper’s Choice, Oklahoma Girl, Pygmy.  Harper’s Choice co-3rd choice in ML.   Best pattern of speed figures, fast tough trip last time out. Also best for off-track and Ranwick.   3 2nds in 8 races lifetime here…is she due?

Race 6: 9-2-5  Cismontaine over favored Big Duke and longshot Havana Cooler.  Cismontaine has a bunch of equipment (gear) changes in prep. Gained a bit on leader despite late fade out.  One of my big longshot picks.

Race 7: 5-4-12   Kuro, Japonisme, In Her Time. 2 more longshots upfront.  Kuro with fastest pattern of speed ratings and fastest tough trip coming in.

Race 8 is the big one, the Everest.  top 3 are 4-3-5. Redkirk Warrior over Redzel and Clearly Innoncent.   Redkirk Warrior improved nicely first race after layoff, 104 to 112, and did well behind leaders at that.

 

 

 

Slight return from slight hiatus

It’s been too long between posts, what with my work schedule and other projects taking equal importance at this time.
I do owe you some updates, including the 2017 Fear Factor stat reveal, both batters and pitchers. I will likely take this slowly, 1 team a day until the final list can be posted and comparisons madeand reveal the stats as we go and provide a summary afterward.

Enlightened Trails continue to present a good deal of parity. This is normal as most of the smaller tracks are getting their races in, and the big ones come shortly, starting with the Breeders Cup races in November. After that race, I will hope to solidify the divisions for each track, and provide yet another summary. Hey, maybe even some handicapping of these races, which I do miss.
Lately I’ve done OK with handicapping in several contests. I play contests at DerbyWars (rather, did), TVG, and the ThoroEnduro contest at Remington Park. My next time wagering actual $ will be the two-day Breeders Cup races, and I do hope I can be off one of those 2 days to fully enjoy the experience.

Yahoo! Sports fantasy football has underwhelmed in all 5 weeks thus far, and I’m about middle of the pack in my 10-team live draft league  https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/888387/6

Enlightened Derby Trail spreadsheet is updated at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZMfIOPgnbXXmYUKlxStJ0K6sOwWPlPhsRNLyjeb5PMs/edit?usp=sharing

Oaks Trail update: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10AeZ-2-yf2GW701zpzt-r62pzXQsxea4Km57h4sEunc/edit?usp=sharing