Enlightened Trails update (Lousiana Downs, Arlington Park)

Today’s Enlightened Trails take us to Arlington Park and Louisiana Downs. We’ll start at LaD and the Sunday Silence, an ungraded 1 mile race for 2YO colts, with a 60k purse. My top 2 here are High Providence and Smokin’ Truth (no confidence in picking 3) Smokin’ Truth and G’s Turn are the overlays.
Smokin’ Truth definitely will be my wiseguy selection. Winner of his maiden debut here on 6/14, he took 7 weeks off, ran 4 workouts, with 2 of them pretty fast. In the LA Cup Juvenile, first time vs state-bred, he started and finished among contenders, ending up 3rd, and matching his pace number in his debut. Of these 2YOs, he’s got the fastest ones of the field. Henry B Johnson is the trainer here, and he adds Lasix to this colt for the first time.

G’s Turn has run somewhat slower and only in maiden company. I like that he did run a pair of 3rds, and wound up with the best troubled trip coming into today’s field. I am taking out the money-line favored Sitting Bull, but will use over my overlays.

Next is the Happy Ticket, for leading 2YO fillies going 1 mile on the LaD turf course, also a 60k purse, also an ungraded race. Top 3 here are Frisco Girl, Lady O’Toole, and longshot/overlay Putsumdirtonit.

Putsumdirtonit won in her 3rd try vs 20k level maidens, the last one her debut vs state-breds and on a wet fast track. She scored a 59 BRIS.Track bias in her favor: in 17 turf routes, the majority (6) have won with her early/presser style. Also, the top posts in those races were the first 3.

Now to Arlington Park and the Arlington-Washington Futurity. This is for top colts going 7 furlongs for a 75k purse. My top 3 begin are all overlays in Captivating Moon and Ghaaleb’s Winner, followed by PR Radio Star. With the scratch of track 2nd choice Soul Of Discretion, I am going against the favored Barry Lee and setting up for a big score.
Captivating Moon enters with a single race and win, a nice 82 score vs 28k maidens here on 7/30 tho it was on the turf course. 4 works here in prep, 2 bullets.
Definitely better than 5-1 ML.
Ghaaleb’s Winner won his debut too, tho at Fairmount Park and vs 9k maidens and with a 66 score.
He is debuting on Lasix here. Track bias for 7 furlong races on the all-weather surface is kind to posts 8 and out (30% hit rate).
PR Radio Star edged out other contenders in The X and East Rand for my 3rd spot. I mainly like him because he had the fastest run of all horses coming in with some trouble in his last trip and no win. That race was here on 8/12, 5.5 furlongs

Finally there is the Arlington-Washington Lassie, for 3YO fillies going 7 furlongs, 75k purse. Top 3 here are Saucy At Midnight, Southampton Way, and Espressa. Overlays are Saucy At Midnight, Espressa and Bet She Wins. Can’t totally rule out favorite; be prepared for nice exacta payout.

Saucy At Midnight already has a win off layoff, so don’t expect rust. Her late closing style and outside plays into track bias. 5 works at AP, with 1 bullet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s