Enlightened Trails update (Lousiana Downs, Arlington Park)

Today’s Enlightened Trails take us to Arlington Park and Louisiana Downs. We’ll start at LaD and the Sunday Silence, an ungraded 1 mile race for 2YO colts, with a 60k purse. My top 2 here are High Providence and Smokin’ Truth (no confidence in picking 3) Smokin’ Truth and G’s Turn are the overlays.
Smokin’ Truth definitely will be my wiseguy selection. Winner of his maiden debut here on 6/14, he took 7 weeks off, ran 4 workouts, with 2 of them pretty fast. In the LA Cup Juvenile, first time vs state-bred, he started and finished among contenders, ending up 3rd, and matching his pace number in his debut. Of these 2YOs, he’s got the fastest ones of the field. Henry B Johnson is the trainer here, and he adds Lasix to this colt for the first time.

G’s Turn has run somewhat slower and only in maiden company. I like that he did run a pair of 3rds, and wound up with the best troubled trip coming into today’s field. I am taking out the money-line favored Sitting Bull, but will use over my overlays.

Next is the Happy Ticket, for leading 2YO fillies going 1 mile on the LaD turf course, also a 60k purse, also an ungraded race. Top 3 here are Frisco Girl, Lady O’Toole, and longshot/overlay Putsumdirtonit.

Putsumdirtonit won in her 3rd try vs 20k level maidens, the last one her debut vs state-breds and on a wet fast track. She scored a 59 BRIS.Track bias in her favor: in 17 turf routes, the majority (6) have won with her early/presser style. Also, the top posts in those races were the first 3.

Now to Arlington Park and the Arlington-Washington Futurity. This is for top colts going 7 furlongs for a 75k purse. My top 3 begin are all overlays in Captivating Moon and Ghaaleb’s Winner, followed by PR Radio Star. With the scratch of track 2nd choice Soul Of Discretion, I am going against the favored Barry Lee and setting up for a big score.
Captivating Moon enters with a single race and win, a nice 82 score vs 28k maidens here on 7/30 tho it was on the turf course. 4 works here in prep, 2 bullets.
Definitely better than 5-1 ML.
Ghaaleb’s Winner won his debut too, tho at Fairmount Park and vs 9k maidens and with a 66 score.
He is debuting on Lasix here. Track bias for 7 furlong races on the all-weather surface is kind to posts 8 and out (30% hit rate).
PR Radio Star edged out other contenders in The X and East Rand for my 3rd spot. I mainly like him because he had the fastest run of all horses coming in with some trouble in his last trip and no win. That race was here on 8/12, 5.5 furlongs

Finally there is the Arlington-Washington Lassie, for 3YO fillies going 7 furlongs, 75k purse. Top 3 here are Saucy At Midnight, Southampton Way, and Espressa. Overlays are Saucy At Midnight, Espressa and Bet She Wins. Can’t totally rule out favorite; be prepared for nice exacta payout.

Saucy At Midnight already has a win off layoff, so don’t expect rust. Her late closing style and outside plays into track bias. 5 works at AP, with 1 bullet.

Enlightened Trails update

Charts are now updated with all races through yesterday’s feature at Kentucky Downs.
Song From Above remains the one horse with multiple scores on the Oaks Trail. On the Derby side, 2 horses now have placed twice: Toledo Pache (Texas Futurity, Evangeline Downs Prince), and Land Battle (Prairie Gold Juvenile, Evangeline Downs Prince).
Next up on the Trails are Arlington Park, Woodbine and Louisiana Downs. I will give you analysis of the Trails races there, plus selections from The Racing Biz’s latest free handicapping contest for 9/9 at Laurel Park.

Derby Trail: http://bit.ly/2eQIzDz

Oaks Trail: http://bit.ly/2xICkGE

More weekend race prep analysis

The races mentioned here, as with yesterday’s post, are all part of my Enlightened Trails series.

Updating matters for Saturday: Rain postpones the Saturday racing at Kentucky Downs to next Wednesday.
Below I have thoughts on the remaining stakes races befitting the Enlightened Derby and Oaks Trails:

Del Mar Debutante: Gabrielleelizabeth, Gas Station Suzie, Just A Smidge.
Gabrielleelizabeth is the one overlay here. Best turn time in the field, a favorable sprinting speed while on the rail, won her 2nd maiden race stretching out 1.5 furlongs, stretches here again while carrying 118.

Evangeline Downs Princess: She’s Creative, Girls Life, Emily’s Lollipop.No overlays here.
Girls Life broke maiden with an 81, bounced to 59 in the LA Cup Juvenile Fillies on 8/5. I’m forgiving of the bounce and am seeking a return to the top 3.

Sorority Stakes at Monmouth: Pacific Gale, Mauk’s Tuff, Little Dipper.
Mauk’s Tuff is the one overlay. An 82 score in her maiden-breaker is best speed for distance of this field. She bounced to 66 last time out in the Ellis Park Debutante. She retains fantastic front-running speed and favorable rail position. Also owns best turn time of these.

Saturday prep race analysis

Lot of races to get to in the next 24 hours, including one today north of the border in Northlands Park, and the rest happening tomorrow on Saturday 9/2 at other tracks. This weekend is considered the first major one to determine which horses will be best considered for the Kentucky Derby and Oaks races. My Trail spreadsheets are updated with the sum total of prep races thus far.

I won out in the DRF $3k credit builder earlier in August. The next tourney in sequence is on 9/16.  Here was the tweet I did the day of the tourney..

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Onto the preps!

 

First on the list is the lone race for today, the Bird Of Pay Stakes at Northland. 6.5 furlongs, 2YO fillies, 50k purse. Top 3 here in this field of 6 are no surprise: Suzette (ML favorite), Dazzling Chic, and Red Bomber.
No real value in this race, as the 1st,3rd and 4th selections per morning line are who I have. No overlays to be found either.

Next is the Evangeline Downs Prince Stakes, for 2YOs going 6 furlongs, 50k purse. top 3 here are Cajun Creed, I Want A Picture (both 5-1) and favored Hardworkcleanlivin. No overlays. Not much value here either. Cajun Creed is a 6-1 choice though and I can take the favorite out of the top 2 positions. Cajun Creed won his debut, then increased slightly in BRIS speed last time out, under wet fast conditions gaining nicely by the 2nd call. 2 works since, 1 a bullet.

Next is the Fasig-Tipton Turf Showcase Juvenile Stakes, for 2YOs going 7 furlongs, 200k purse. Top 3 depends on the AE horses that are 13-16, and the possibility of rain that may take out some horses. Top 3 will come later on but I do see two horses that stand out at this time:
Sky Promise (8-1) took 4 tries to break maiden, the latter 2 on turf. Gained 8.5 lengths on leader between first 2 calls in last race. Best turn time of the field. He may become the lone deep closer based on scratches.
Pont Du Gard (10-1) won his maiden debut, 1 mile on the Arlington Park turf with 72 BRIS. 6 works in prep, 2 very fast, 1 bullet.
I will update choices tonight.

Next at Monmouth is the Sapling, 1 mile for 2YOs, 75k. Top 3 here are Admiral Jimmy, Coltandmississippi, and favored Kowboy Karma. None of these are of any great value between them. No overlays in this one.

Finally, the Spinaway at Saratoga, a Grade 1 race for leading 2YO fillies, going 7 furlongs. I have confidence in the 2 favorites, Pure Silver and Separationofpowers. No one else is definite for 3rd in this small field. The one overlay might be Obvious Two. 3 tries to break maiden and succeeding, sparking up to a 75, going 6 furlongs first time. Stretches out to 7 here and has a new barn.

Tonight I’ll update with 4 more Saturday races.