4/1/17 handicapping wrapup (Fair Grounds, Gulfstream)

Finally catching up to the big races I posted about yesterday, this before I even look at the updated future wager odds. I am rechecking my info and looking at how the scratches impact them.I also recheck my info for any overlays that might have come up and how I would have played them.

CRESCENT CITY DERBY: Original top 3 werer Underpressure, overlay Ida’s Warrior, and Tip Tap Tapizar. Freakonthelead was a scratch, a minor pick that I never seriously factored. Out of this, I actually made a minor change with TTT 2nd and Ida’s 3rd. The ideal play would have been to use Ida’s, still an overlay, as my lone win bet, and to put the 2 favorites, Underpressure and TTT over in exactas. Simple $4 investment total here.
Result: True Emperor turns the 29-1 upset over Underpressure. He was nowhere in my rankings, so I took a direct loss there.

CRESCENT CITY OAKS: Top 3 were Mr. Al’s Gal, Naughty Little Nun, and Madame Begue. Two scratches came through, D’Wild Muffin and Our Millie. No change to my top picks but several overlays presented themselves, all win-bet worthy: Sashimi Blaster, Madame Begue, My Gay Layla, EZ’s All Attitude, Naughty Little Nun. Mr. Al’s Gal to be used over them in exactas. Investment: $15
Result: Mr. Al’s Gal convincingly wired the field. Rose Guitar suprised with the 2nd place spot. She had set a lifetime best 2 races back, with a stronger surge in pace last time out, peaking at 75. She also managed a competitive gain in turn time between both races.

Top 3 for me were Wicked Luck, Farrell and Majestic Quality. After scratches to both the latter and Summer Luck, I changed my #3 pick to Queen Bernardina. She and Wicked Luck I regarded as overlays. I did win bets on 3 and 8, with 5 and 6 over them in exactas, $8 total.
Result: 6-3-5, with Farrell a solid winner here. Wicked Luck just moved into 2nd place at the wire to earn me the exactas here. I earned just $8 for the exacta, getting my money back.

LOUISIANA DERBY. My top 3 were 5-2-8, Monaco, Hollywood Handsome and Girvin. No scratches in this race. Overlays: 2,5,7,9. Wins on the overlays (Hollywood, Monaco, Sorry Erik, Hotfoot), with public top 2 (Guest Suite and Girvin) in exactas. $16 invested.
Result was chalky, as Girvin won, but Patch took 2nd here.

GP OAKS: I chose Shezaparado, Tequilita and Salty for my top 3. Summer Luck was scratched from this race. This did not leave a real impact in my wagering. Overlays: Shezaparado. I chose her for win, with Tequilita, Salty and Nonna Bella over her in exactas. $5 investment.
Result: A chalk finish here as Tequilita outpointed Salty. Shezaparado was never in it.

FLORIDA DERBY: My picks here were Battalion Runner, Gunnevara and State Of Honor. Battalion Runner was a scratch later on. I changed my top 3 to Gunnevara, Coleman Rocky, and Impressive Edge. I had win bets on overlays Quinientos, Talk Logistics, Coleman Rocky and Impressive Edge, and exactas using Gunnevera and Always Dreaming over the overlays. $15 invested.
Result: Gunnevara had this race in command and won out, with short-priced Always Dreaming second.

I’d have wagered $63 total, factoring $2 wins and $1 exactas. Just one payoff with the Fair Grounds Oaks at $8.

Putting this all together shortly with an Enlightened Trails update, and what will likely be my choices for the future wager in response to yesterday’s results

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