NCAA brackets were announced Sunday night. Between 2 jobs, I’ve just now taken enough time to get 3 brackets going, and a 4th composite to flesh out who will win, and who will be Cinderellas.
Bracket 1 will be via Yahoo! Sports, using historical coach, school stats, plus # of upperclassmen on the roster through the season.
Upset potential in Round 1: 11 seed Providence, 9 seed Vanderbilt, 11 seed Xavier, 14 seed FL Gulf Coast, 10 seed VCU, 9 seed Michigan State, 13 seed VT, 12 seed Middle Tennessee State. After that, I see just Xavier winning getting to the round of 16. My final four from here: Duke, Arizona, Kansas, North Carolina, with Duke winning a classic over NC in the championship.
Bracket 2 stats will employ W/L record vs top 50, # of wins vs teams outside conference in better conferences (using strength of schedule), closer distance of school to location of game (ignoring this if neither team’s school is close). In tiebreaks, I use the higher seed. This chart will be posted at http://www.espn.com
Upsets include E Tennessee State, Bucknell, and Michigan State. That’s about it. From there, it should be chalk. Final 4: Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, NC, with Gonzaga defeating Kansas for the title.
Bracket 3 involves specific stats at http://www.teamrankings.com; Offensive and Defensive Efficiency %, differential between opponent 2 and 3-point %, and turnovers per possession. I will use this one at the official bracket challenge at ncaa.com https://bracketchallenge.ncaa.com/#bracket?entry_id=1577504&controller=bracket
Upsets here include Marquette, Vermont, Wichita State, the latter two getting to the round of 16, but no further.
Final 4: Virginia, Gonzaga, Kansas, and NC, with Gonzaga over NC in the final.
The composite looks like this, which I’m using at http://www.cbssports.com
Look for ‘Dan Herman’s official bracket’
Upsets: Vermont, Wichita State.