Enlightened Trails update and recap of 2/11/17 predictions

I was away from the computer this past weekend, and did not get the opportunity to review my Saturday selections or update the Trails until just now.
California Oaks: This Enlightened Oaks Trail race went to my 2nd choice, the 2nd public choice in Tap It All. Tapped, the public favorite, finished 2nd. Shari, a longshot ,finished 3rd. My top choice, Simmy’s Temple, was public 3rd choice and finished 4th.  Solar Wind, my overlay pick here, was never in it, finished last of 9.   It would have been a losing race in handicapping, as there was no value between my picks besides Solana Wind. Top 4 finishers all get points in the Minor category. Tap It All seizes the lead in that category, and would be the single representative for my mythical Oaks if the field had to be drawn up now.  Still 3 more races left in this category: the Arizona Oaks coming up this weekend, and next months’ Caesar’s Wish and Sunland Park Oaks.

Sam F Davis went to McCraken, my consistent choice for the Kentucky Derby in 2 future wagers. Now undefeated in 4, McCraken was my 3rd choice here. I picked No Dozing for 2nd. He was the only other horse taking much money, and proved to be a money-burner, always in the latter half of the field. My top pick, overlay State Of Honor, did lead much of the race, and had enough stamina to finish 3rd.   The 2nd place horse was a bit of a surprise in Tapwrit.  I didn’t like him that much going in; the only reason for liking him at all might have been the trainer influence. He had a prior distance cutback win, a shipping win, and was waiting the longest to stretch out. I missed out on a $20.80 exacta from $1 wager.

Underpressure was a surprise winner in the LA Bred Premier Night Prince at Delta Downs. Also unexpected was Magic Vow for 2nd.  Saint’s Fan, the true lone favorite, and my top pick was upset and finished 3rd.  Freakonthelead, and Tip Tap Tapizar, never seriously factored.  Underpressure did have best average-winning-distance numbers from pedigree, and was one of 2 that had recently exploded/forged through in pace compared to his 2YO season. He also seemed to benefit from the prevailing track bias. Magic Vow had best distance and track speed ratings at Delta from this field; he also had an impressive turn time gain from his last race.    Nearly a 2-longshot exacta, $66 payoff with $1 wagered, which I did not foresee.

Next up this weekend are 3 Enlightened Trails races. On the Derby side, it’s the El Camino Real at Golden Gate (Cali division), and the Turf Paradise Derby (Minors). On the Oaks side, it’s the aforementioned Arizona Oaks.

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