A lot to get to in the next few days, what with the Pegasus World Cup, and the latest handicapping contest from The Racing Biz, which will involve the PWC, plus 9 other races at Gulfstream and Laurel Parks. But, this post focuses on Kentucky Derby Future Wager 2017, Pool 2. This on the heels of the Triple Crown nominations. Here are my findings:
Below I am listing the progeny of the 5 sires I have placed win bets on for this year’s Derby. The ‘in’ reference are horses I cited as key horses for making the sire wagers in the first places. “out” refers to those initial key horses that were not nominated.
BERNARDINI (13 horses, 14-1): Haul Anchor (in), Reedini, Shamsaan, Takaful (in), Texican, Third Day, Insurgent, Curate, Newman (in), Fuel The Bern, Outplay, Balandeen (in), Hemsworth (in). Out: Altito, Souper Catch. Hemsworth was 80-1 in Pool 1
INTO MISCHIEF (16, 24-1): Sheer Mayhem, Practical Joke (in), Into Belief, Pure Heart, One Liner, Excitations, Oxford Lane, Menace The Dennis, Westmont (in), Into Kings, Twisted Road, Spicoli, Marco Mischief, Cool Arrow (in), Troublewithatee, Dangerfield (in). Out: Bold Prophet, Calculated Risker, Candy Snatcher, Conquest Prankster, Cooked Are Good, Dab, Huevos Rancheros, KY Colonel, South Sea, The All Buttonm, Theoryintopractice.
Practical Joke is in KDFW Pool 2, and was 26-1 in Pool 1
KITTEN’S JOY: (4, 47-1) Gorgeous Kitten, Mistake Present, King Caymus, Kitten’s Royal. Out: Oscar Performance, Kitten’s Cat, Miracle Mountain, Unspoiled Moments, Kayla’s Kitten.
SCAT DADDY (6, 42-1): Wazzup Chuck, Daddy’s Placer (in), Papa Jazz, Conquest Farenheit (in), Conquest Bandit (in), Soglio. Out: Caravaggio, Nerinx, Scatoga, Ventry Bay, Wild Scat Blue.
UNCLE MO (15, 9-1) : Basha, Sakab, Monaco, Uncle Billy, Uncle Mojo, Mo Town, The Hardest Way, Letsgoidaho, Shareholder Value, Mo’s Mojo, Adorned, I Can Do Anything, Royal Mo, Absolutely Stylish, One Mo Chance
Mo Town is in KDWF Pool 2, and was 12-1 in Pool 1
The sires I selected have 54 nominations, the same total I garnered in 2016!
As for the future wager itself, I am taking the same approach as with Pool 1: Win bets on my top 5 horses, and exactas between top 3 regardless of odds, plus the field between each.
Should any of my top 5 horse be any worse odds than I may have selected in the first pool, with a higher payout of at least $10, I will put an extra win bet on that horse. For example, a horse who is 10-1 from Pool 1 has become 16-1in Pool 2 I would pay extra for, but not if he’s 14-1 or anything better than that.
The categories: Dosage, AWD, top class defeated, longest distance win, pace progress at age 2, Churchill Downs best BRIS speed figure, best general pace numbers based on BRIS numbers.
I kept the top 7 scores in each category for all 23 horses, including ties. The most placings in the top 7 would earn that horse a win bet from me, keeping the top 5. I ultimately found 6 horses, and it came down to logistics.
The #6 horse, and first out is very likely to become my #5: SONIC MULE joins initially at 50-1. Winner of his maiden start at Monmouth and 4th in the Saratoga Special, he’d finish 3r din the Sapling in his route debut, 2nd in the Armed Forces (turf debut), then won his last 3….a 75k allowance race, the Buffalo Man with a sharp 103 score, and the Mucho Macho Man. Appears to have the best pedigree overall. He is a son of Distorted Humor, who percentage-wise, has the best black-type score for all sires in North America. Dam side is Globe Trot, out of the great AP Indy. Combined AWD is 7.1 on the sire side, 8.2 for dam-sire, best combo here. His recent score prove him to be fast enough among the 23 (94 in the Mucho Macho Man, 88 in the OC race). On the downside, he hasn’t defeated Graded company yet, has not yet run at Churchill, and has not even been entered in a distance beyond a mile.
#5 and last in, is CLASSIC EMPIRE. I already have odds of 6-1 on him. If he were to be worse than 11-1, I’d play another win wager on him. By most accounts, he’s the big favorite for the Run for the Roses, having the most Derby Trail points. Chances are very good I will skip betting win on him and proceed to Sonic Mule. Besides, I will not bet win on any horse better than 6-1.
Winner of 4 of 5 lifetime, including his maiden start, then the Bashford Manor, the Breeders Futurity and the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Failed to finish in the Hopeful. His BC Juvenile score was an amazing 108. One of 4 horses to win at the Grade 1 level. His Bashford Manor score took place at Churchill, with a 94 rating. Factoring in his non-finish, I am slightly hesitating on giving more confidence to him. With his BC Juvenile score, he proved positive pace progress. One of 6 horses to win at 8.5 furlongs. Pedigree does not rank at all with this group.
#4: MO TOWN. I have him at 12-1. He is 20-1 morning-line. Indeed, if he’s worse than 17-1, I will play a win bet on him. 2nd in his first maiden race, winner in his 2nd as he ran his first route race, then won the Remsen Stakes with a 101 Brisnet while extending to 9 furlongs. Good AWD numbers here (Uncle Mo/Grazie Mille, by Bernardini). The Remsen Stakes win proved his pace progress at 2. Longest distance win of this group at 9 furlongs. Meanwhile he has not run at CD yet, and his current pace of speed figures is just a shade lower than the best.
#3 EL AHEED: 50-1 at ML. 4th in his maiden debut, then 2nd while dropping to 40k maidens, then broke through in 3rd start. Followed this with a win in the JF Lewis III 100k race at Laurel on 11/19, with a 102 BRIS score. Then posted a 100, winning the Grade 3 Jerome at Aqueduct, 1/2/17. AWD numbers are very good (Exchange Rate/Feathered Diamond, out of AP Indy). Currently among the fastest pace horses of the 23. Jerome Stakes was 1 mile-70 yards, shorter than the benchmark 8.5 furlongs for the 23. No runs at Churchill yet. Will most likely involve him in exactas.
#2 GUEST SUITE: Opens at 50-1 also. 3rd in his maiden debut, winner of his 2nd maiden score at 60k, in his route debut. 3rd in the Street Sense, winner of a 75k optional claimer (these 2 races at CD), then winner of the Grade 3 LeComte last week at 8.5 furlongs. 4 straight small new tops in pace, ranging from 85 to 93. 2 races at CD make him legit. Pedigree is weak compared to others. Despite being consistent in pace, his numbers are rather slow. Definite for win/exactas.
#1 pick is another repeat in MCCRAKEN. All races at CD..all wins. 43k maiden debut, then the Street Sense at a mile, then the KY Jockey Club at 8.5 furlongs, with a 93 Brisnet, pairing up with a 94 prior. Dosage figures are among the better ones here. He did not run prior to Labor Day, so I’m unsure if he’s progressing well. Also with a 94 at best, his pace numbers need to improve. He was 12-1 win bet that also got used in exactas. I will use him only if he is worse than 17-1. Somehow I don’t see that happening. If that’s the case, I’ll leave him for exactas, but I’d have to go to my 7th ranked horse. That horse would be MASTERY. Also undefeated in 3 races…52k maiden, G3 Bob Hope, G1 Los Alamitos Futurity. Pace scores range from 93 to 99, so the class and pace numbers are there, as well as the requisite distance. Meanwhile, he’s lacking in pedigree and has yet to run at CD.
Mastery is opening at 6-1. Should he better than 6-1, I’ll drop down to the 8th ranked horse, GUNNEVARA. 2nd in his maiden debut last June, 4th in the Birdonre, winner of his 2nd maiden event, winner of the Saratoga Special, 5th in the Breeders Futurity, winner of the Delta Downs Jackpot with lifetime best 96. The class is certainly there as well as the distance and pace progress. On the downside, the pedigree doesn’t measure up, and neither does his current pace overall, and he has no CD appearances.