Enlightened Trails update (stakes action at Churchill Downs)

A good renewal of the Golden Rod is ahead today at Churchill Downs…with implications in the Derby Trail, and my own Enlightened Trail series, not to mention the Derby and Derby Sire Future Wagers.   Top horse in the morning-line is a lukewarm 7/2 and I see some isolated overlays, not falling into my top 3.
Before mentioning the races, do note that my Enlightened Trails spreadsheets are up to date for today.
Also, I forgot to mention that I will not wager win bets on horses in the Future Wager for anything better than 5-1. I’ll go down my rankings to find the next best horses who fit.
Golden Rod Stakes , a Grade 2, 200k event, is for top 2YO fillies going 8.5 furlongs.
Top 3: Daddy’s Lil Darling, Fun, Dream Dancing.  Logical favorite with some mild value.
Overlays: Someday Soon, My Sweet Stella
Daddy’s Lil Darling has much to live up to. Winner in route debut and 2nd maiden race, then won the Grade 2 Pocahontas here, then 2nd in the Grade 1 Alcibiad, then 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. Forward pace numbers, with new tops in the 80s in each of her 4 previous races, along with best pace pattern. Difficult trip in the BC Juvenile Fillies despite increase to lifetime best of 89..I’m willing to forgive that one.
Fun won her maiden debut at the 47k level here in June…then was 2nd in the Schuylerville, 4th in the Spinaway, 3rd in the Alcibiad…the latter 3 all Graded races. Best AWD numbers of the field (Harlan’s Holiday/Home Run, out of Empire Maker).  A winner from her debut, coming off layoff, there should be no rust. Improved a length on leader at 2nd call in the Alcibiad. A bunch of local works, 2 of them very fast.
Dream Dancing won in her 2nd maiden race at the 83k level, then was 4th in the Pocohontas, then 5th in the Alcibiad, the latter two were first races on dirt.  Turn time gain between her last 2 races is best of the field, 1.6 seconds.  Gained 2.25 lengths on leader at 2nd call last out.  Also has a series of local works since last, a few very fast ones, including a bullet.
Someday Soon makes her Graded debut. Won an OH-bred maiden race at the 21k level in debut, then 5th in the Miss Ohio, 2nd in the Tah Dah, 2nd in a 15k allowance race, and winner of the John W Galbreith last time out. Best pace numbers of the field, ranging from 82 to 91. Track bias likes early/mid-pace horses in route races here this meet..39% wins at 8.5 furlongs in fact. Also 13% wins from posts 4-7
My Sweet Stella took 5 tries to graduate and did so last out on 10/20 at Keeneland.  Best tactical speed of the field, this sprinter with great 1st call numbers. 4 works at Churchill, last one a bullet.

Onto the Kentucky Jockey Club stakes, Grade 2, 8.5 furlongs, 200k races for top 2YOs.
Top 3: Total Tap, Wild Shot, Warrior’s Club

Overlays: Total Tap, Silent Decree, Shareholder Value, Jocker Justice.
An exciting value-filled race on tap, with Total Tap leading the way. Won impressively vs 43k maidens in debut, right here, tho on the turf course. Followed up with a 4th in a 62k allowance race a month ago.  Best AWD numbers (Candy Ride/Easy Tap, out of Tapit). Improved in 2nd place to close from .5 lengths to a head last out. 4 works, one very fast.
Wild Shot graduated from maiden in 2nd start, here at CD, 81 Brisnet. Followed up with 89, running 3rd in the Breeders Futurity tiring late. Nice gain in pace from 81. Prior stretchout win and shipping win. A bunch of local works, a few fast ones, 1 a bullet.
Warrior’s Club broke maiden in 4th try, doing so with a nice 95 Brisnet rating, then matched that umber in the Spendthrift on 10/30 here. Best track speed and turn speed of the field.
Silent Decree took 4 tries to graduate…afterward was 4th in the Street Sense.  Best recent pattern of pace numbers…last 3 range from 83 to 86, all taking place here at CD and in routes.
Shareholder Value graduated maiden status in 3rd start, last one a small new top to 86, first time on dirt. Best tactical speed here…2nd call numbers lifetime: 117, 104, 82. Track bias favoritism too (see above re Someday Soon).
Uncontested was a 6-length wire-to-wire victory at Keeneland vs fellow 60k maidens. 95 Brisnet very sharp. Waiting 5 weeks to stretch from the sprint

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