2017 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 selections and thoughts.

Pool 1 of the 2017 Kentucky Derby Future Wager begins in earnest right alongside American Thanksgiving (Turkey) Day. As in prior years I have put together a short list of those I will use in win bets. Following last year’s cue, I will also place exacta bets on some of those horses.  It was cool to have the winner from last year’s pool.  But I truly would have been the smartest one of all had I played the exacta. And I had both Nyquist and Exaggerator in the top 5 as well.
The variables I use are the same as for the Sire Future Wager, tho here I will also apply dosage…the measure of chef-de-race points, which determine whether a horse is speed favoring or stamina oriented, according to pedigree.  I measured the points for each horse against the typical score for all winners at Churchill Downs in 2015.  This info comes from http://www.pedigreequery.com and http://www.chef-de-race.com, the latter website which is no longer being maintained.
Here are the top 5 horses, all of whom I’ll be targeting
Ranked 5th: LOOKIN AT LEE: Top 7 in average winning distance from pedigree (Lookin At Lucky/Langara Lass, by Langfuhr). Top 7 in dosage profile. Top class win was 75k stakes level (Ellis Park Juvenile, 8/6). Entered in 3 Graded level routes since, finished 2nd twice, and 4th once. 2 races at Churchill, the better race was an 85 Brisnet speed rating in the Iriquois.  Current run-pace level puts him around 90, a bit slow compared to others. Positive pace progress: Before 9/1 his best score was 85; improved to 90 in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland.
Ranked 4th: MCRAKEN, winner at 6.5 furlongs vs 43k maidens, and the 80k Street Sense at 1 mile, both at Churchill. Top 7 in AWD and dosage (Ghostzapper/Ivory Engineer, by Seeking The Gold). 94 speed figure in the Street Sense was at lower class, yet matches fastest speed at CD of this field. Run pace measures currently at 90. Qualifies here for having the mile victory.
Ranked 3rd: PRACTICAL JOKE. Undefeated in 4, winning vs 83k maidens at Saratoga, then the Grade 1 Hopeful there, then the Champagne at Belmont, and 3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Run pace currently measured at 96. Pace progress: 90 in his debut was bettered in the Champagne with a 97. Met standard for distance with the mile victory.
Ranked 2nd: CLASSIC EMPIRE. 4 wins in 5…44k maidens at Churchill on 5/4 (there’s the other 94 score here), then the Grade 3 Bashford Manor, the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity, and the Breeders Cup Juvenile. In the Hopeful, he lost the rider at the start.  Factoring in that race, his run pace is much lower than others with an 85. BC Juvenile represented good pace progress with a dazzling 108. One of 4 horses with a win at 8.5 furlongs.
Top pick in Pool 1 is HEMSWORTH.  Top 7 in AWD and dosage (Bernardini/In Step, out of Unbridled’s Song). 4th in his 2 maiden races, both scores in the 70s then surprised winning the mile Grade 2 Nashua with an 89 Brisnet number. Run pace still lower than others with an 83.

My plan this year is to play these 5 horses in win bets, and then play Hemsworth, Classic Empire and Practical Joke plus the field selections in exactas to each others. This will be a $36 investment.

In so doing, sires Bernardini, Pioneer of the Nile and Into Mischief are getting extra action for my involving them in my Sire Future Wager.

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