Delta Downs 11/19/16 full card analysis

Lots to get to for this Delta Downs card, 11 races in all, with the Delta Downs Jackpot the featured race.  See my prior post for thoughts on the Princess and Jackpot races.
Race 1: Statebred maidens, 38k level, 7 furlongs.
Top 5: Kool Yankee, Florencio, Mob Posse.
Overlay: Mob Posse.
Should Kool Yankee or Mob Posse not appear, as they are ‘also-eligible, I have these ranked 4th and 5th: Coffee Cup and Freakonthelead.
Mob Posse ran 5th in his debut here 3 weeks ago, 54 pace figure.  Only horse in the field coming out of some trouble in his last race.  I like to play horses who are fastest with some trouble last time out.
Update:  New top 3 following changes: Kool Yankee, Florencio, Taylor
Race 2: 30k allowance, 1 mile, 3YO +.
I have no access to free past performances for this race, so I went with the top 3 based on jockey and trainer win percentage stats:  Kinker, Broberg entry of Fryers Well and Masculino, and Ruston Vow.

Race 3: Louisiana Jewel Stakes: 150k, statebred 2YOs, 1 mile.
Top 3: Big Game Baby, Naughty Little Nun, Sashimi Blaster
Overlays: Ivana’s Wish, Ourgoldshalaylee
Sashimi Blaster really a narrow 3rd over the overlays. Peaked sharply graduating from maiden status last time out, 72 Brisnet as favorite, 4th in 4 lifetime races with that distinction. Has to be considered with the pace threat. As for the overlays: Ivana’s Wish last race was important: 1st after layoff and 2nd lifetime race improved nicely at 2nd call, and gained quarter-length on leader. Ourgoldshalaylee might not go as she’s an AE horse. Improved 1 length from 1st to 2nd call last time out and 2nd lifetime race. One fast work since then here.

Race 4: Delta Mile. 250k, for 3YO+.

Top 3: Fear The Cowboy, Great Minds, Excessive.
Overlay: Excessive.
Only real longshot of the field, Excessive nevertheless must get consideration. Shares in having competitive turn time of 23.6 seconds. Only horse whose best run is on the backstreatch.
Race 5: Sam’s Town Stakes, 7 furlongs, 75k purse, 3YOs non-stakes winners.
Top 3: I Came To Party, Black Bear, Si Familia.
Overlays: So Sorry Ruston, I Came To Party, Si Familia.
I Came To Party first race under reclaim by Gerald Brooks, coming out of best races since the spring, best pattern of speed figures overall.  Longshot So Sorry Ruston has raced competitively enough for much of his career as well. Bounced from lifetime best 93 to 72 last time out upgrading to 34k and 2 furlongs plus jockey switch.  Did improve at 1st call, first race since 7 week layoff.   Si Familia is AE, switching back to prior winner Luis Batista, with whom he won a race here last year. Carrying just 116 as he is a non-winner for over 90 days.
New top 3 following changes: I Came To Party, Aces High, Black Bear.
Race 8: Louisiana Legacy Stakes, 1 mile, 150k purse, statebred 2YO colts/geldings.
Top 3: Jack Snipe’s, Tooth, Dixieland Native.
Overlays: Tooth, Drewmisterio.
Tooth won maiden debut vs statebred 38k level, 5 furlongs here on 10/19, 73 Brisnet, by 1.5 lengths. Gained 2.5 lengths on leader by 2nd call. Only early closer in the field in a race with a lot of speed on the backstretch.
New top 3 following changes reverses this order, Dixieland Native, Tooth, Jack Snipe’s.
Race 9: Orleans Stakes, 7 furlongs, 75k purse, fillies/mares 3YO+, non-stakes winners.
Top 3:  Manille, Kathballu, Strike Pleasure.
Overlay: Manille. Barely an overlay really as he’s 5-1 morning line and I like him to be at even-money.  Best tactical speed of the field, and best pattern of speed figures, he comes out of a bounced 82 speed figure vs 40k optional claimers, finishing last of 8, ‘hooked from inside’ after leading much of the 5.5 furlong race. I am certain it can be thrown out and he should take more money.  Prior winner doing the turf to dirt switch. Fastest turn-time as well.

Race 10 is the Treasure Chest Stakes, 1 mile, 200k purse for fillies/mares 3YO+.
Top 3 in this 5-horse field:  Favorites Danatrice, Savings Account, then longshot Brooke’s A Bookin.
Brooke’s A Bookin hasn’t won since January, has remained somewhat competitive since. Bounced from lifetime matching 85 to 74 moving up to 34k level and 7.5 furlongs, finishing 2nd for 2nd consecutive race.  Did win here a year ago at home track. Waiting since 10/22 to stretch to the mile. One bullet work since.

Race 11 is a 10k optional claimer, 1 mile, 20k purse for 3YO+.
Top 3: Coteau Kid,  Tickatee Tickatay, Disturbingbehavior.
Overlays: None.
Tickatee Tickatay best of these with any value won at the 5k claiming level, then 4th in last 2 at 10k. best track speed of field with 92, only deep closer in the field.

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