Handicapping OK Classics races at Remington Park (10/21/16)5-10

A nice collection of Oklahoma bred horses invade OKC’s Remington Park this evening. I am participating by picking contenders in 6 of the stakes races through the track’s ThoroEnduro elimination contest.  I’m in the middle of the pack thus far, with 2 lives remaining.    Here is some in-depth thoughts on the contest races:
Race 5 is the OK Classics Distaff Turf, 8.5 furlongs, fillies/mares 3YO+ bred in OK.
Top 3 are favored Zeta Zody, Lingering Smoke, and Penguini.
Overlays (judged against morning-line): Onemorefastdance.
Lingering Smoke the best possible value play here. 3rd in the B Barry Memorial here last time out, first after claim and summer layoff, this 5YO improved on her 2nd call numbers with the route to sprint move, as well as some gain on the leader. Owns a prior win while stretching out, and is waiting as long as others to stretch out, nearly 4 weeks.

Onemorefastdance is a frequent claimee, and was 4th in the B Barry Memorial. Only horse under reclaim (4th race since by Jade Lowder).  Small lifetime top of 80 2 races back, matched with 78 last out. Track bias for the meet favors early closers (4 wins in 12 races) and the rail post (2 wins in 12).

Next in race 6 is the OK Classics Sprint, 6 furlongs for 3YO+ OK breds. Top 3 are Okie Ride, Johnny Whip and Welder.
Overlays: Johnny Whip, and My Validation.
Johnny Whip won the Route 66 at Fairmont on 7/30, then was 8th in the Red Earth here on 9/25.  Improved 5 notches in speed rating 1st after layoff last out at 1st call. Also had slight gain on leader by 2nd call.
My Validation has 4 wins in 5 races, tho took 2nd last out in a DQ, and is offically 14-3-1-1 lifetime. 0-4 on the dirt at RP. Only horse who is on influence of recent pace; comes out of gain to 87, a nice new top, and can be regarded as the speed here. Early-presser type, favored at this distance (24 wins in 63 races, 38%), along with the middle post (14% wins). Best works of the field too, 4 of them here, 3 of them fast.

Race 7 is the OK Classics Juvenile, for top state-bred 2YO colts/geldings, going 6 furlongs.  Top 3 are Irish Capital, Heartland Hit and Uncle Pup.
Overlays: None to be found.
Irish Capital won 2nd maiden effort, then was 9th in the Kip Deville here on 9/25.  Leading AWD numbers here (Dublin/Taylor Madison, out of Kipling). Another early-presser type that should fair well via track bias (see above). Good turn time compared to others.
Heartland Hit broke maiden in 2nd start here on 9/24.  78 figure in his debut race is best for the distance of these. Matched with 79 last out, he must be considered strong here. Also, the E/P track bias.
Uncle Pup I like for 3rd, who was competitive but hasn’t shown all that much since maiden victory in July plus layoff.  3 races back he posted a lifetime best 77 on 8/31…I consider him somewhat influenced by that number to run back to.  Only deep closer in the field.

Race 8 is the OK Classics Lassie, 2YO fillies going 6 furlongs. Top 3 are Claire’s Music, Natalie’s Mischief and Js Pearljam.   Overlays: 4 of ‘em: Cuando Again, Js Pearljam, Sparkled and Natalie’s Mischief.   Nice opportunity to score here.
Natalie’s Mischief a maiden still after 2 races. Only deep closer in the field and gets maximum 4 lb. allowance.
Js Pearljam likewise a maiden after 2 races shows best turn time overall of this field and the same 4 lb allowance.

Cuando Again has best AWD numbers (Dominus/Jezebella, out of Wild Again). Also an E/P type with track bias influence.
Sparkled is maiden no more after 4th start on 9/14 and 65 speed rating. That 65 is her lifetime best, tho highly susceptible to bounce.
Race 9 is the OK Classics Cup, 8.5 furlongs for OK-breds 3YO+.  Top 3 are Z Rockstar, Royal Lion, and Ted’s Folly.
Overlay: Ted’s Folly.  Another good race with promising value.
Z Rockstar is a 7YO gelding with a 50-13-9-7 record, and is 20-5-4-3 at RP.  Lifetime best for 8.5 furlongs is 99. Prior winner first off layoff. 4 works since layoff, 1 very fast. Track bias favoring early/pressers and outside posts, albeit a small 4-race sample.
Royal Lion comes out of a 4th place finish in the Red Earth on 9/25, an 83 speed rating, and a 5-wide trip around in that race. Prior win while stretching out,  as well as turf to dirt. Gets maximum 5 lbs. allowance.
Ted’s Folly 1st start under reclaim by JR Caldwell. 83 speed figure 1st after layoff vs $6250 claimers and a 5-wide trip around the turn.
Race 10 is the OKC Turf Classic for OK-breds 3YO+ going 8.5 furlongs.  Top 3 are Charlie Webb, Ibake and Pacific Typhoon. Overlays: Charlie Webb, Pacific Typhoon.
Another great value race.  Charlie Webb a late closer who caught a great stretch run last out in a mile race, closing from 7th to finish 1.5 lengths out in 2nd, 4-wide while doing so. 87 speed figure for the effort is sharp. Only deep closer here so he is dangerous. 3 works at RP since, 1 a bullet.
Pacific Typhoon comes out of paired-up small new tops of 83 in last 2, great pattern of 80-83 in last 4.

Enlightened Trails Update (Zia, Hastings, Northland)

Covering 5 of 6 of the Enlightened Trails races for you, as I have all but one available from the assorted free PP site at about.com   Today, on Canada’s Thanksgiving Day, 4 of the 6 are north of the 48, as there is racing at both Hastings Racecourse and Northland Park, plus 2 more at Zia Park in New Mexico.

Northlands Park:
Freedom Of The City: Ruffenuff, Saveitforarainyday, All About Laughs
Ruffenuff won both lifetime starts here, 2 stakes races, in fact, both at similar levels. Easily the speed of this field, she also is benefit of track bias. Rail/sprinter horses at the mile distance during the meet have the best % of wins (40% rail, 18% post). Waiting longest to stretch out of this short field of 5. Best workouts too.
Should be a chalk finish between top 2.

Canadian Juvenile: Norm’s Big Bucks, Hyannisport, Trooper John.
Norm’s Big Bucks is 3-3, winning 2 stakes here at similar level. Best workouts, and is best speed of this field, along with best track performance (92, set in the 2YO Sales Stakes on 8/1 here).  This favorite, 1/1 ML, should win out, with some nice value underneath.
Hastings:
Fantasy Stakes: Yukon Belle, Anstrum, Swagger Cat
Yukon Belle won debut in the CTHS Sales Stakes, then 3rd in the restricted Diamond Futurity last month. 76 speed figure with wide trip last out, and improved on the leader some while in contention. One bullet work since last race.    Expect nothing but chalk from this event.
Zia Park:
Governor’s Cup: Thunder Dome, Another Brother, El Tule
Thunder Dome something of value that should win out.  2nd in first 2 starts, then won the state-bred Trial and the El Gran Senor Fillies last out, both wins coming at Ruidoso. Those 2 starts came after a 3.5 month layoff, with greatly improved speed figures of 78 and 81. Owns a shipping win and best work tab of this field.
Overlay: El Tule, 2nd in the Manzano last time out, gaining sharply in speed figure, has best turn time of the field. Love the 8-1 odds.

Permian Basin: Imsortaspecial, Vocally, Shoe Game
Imsortaspecial won a maiden effort at the 30k level, then finished 4th in the Prairie Gold Lassie.  Since layoff, she posted 4 works, 2 very fast. Best AWD numbers in the field (Big Brown/BR’s Girl, by Pulpit).   Should be the best value of these 5 races, as I like Vocally for 2nd. a filly with stronger pace form, and is 1st or 2nd in 4 lifetime, along with positive pace pattern.

NFL Week 5 momentum predictions

Summary of momentum predictions in NFL week 5 follows. I skipped games where there was no team with an edge on offense, and games with teams who have played 3 games.
HOU/MINN
Minnesota should dominate in the 2nd quarter. Houston to take over on offense in the 3rd, and on defense in the 4th.
CIN/DAL
I see Cincy getting a great start in 1Q, Dallas cutting into that lead via defense in 2Q, then both defenses trade blows in the 2nd half.
SD/OAK
Raiders start strong on D in 1Q, with offense doing likewise in Q2, defense again in 3Q. Chargers go all in in Q4.
BUF/LA
Expect a high scoring 2nd quarter, Bills getting the best of the scoring opportunities. They should keep momentum on offense in the 3Q, and LA bouncing back on D in the 4Q.
ATL/DEN
Denver to dominate in 2Q. Expect Atlanta to chip into the edge on offense in 3Q, and on defense in the 4Q.
WAS/BAL
Washington has the upper hand in Q2 on offense, with Baltimore coming back on D in Q3. Redskins win the tussle with offense in Q4.
TEN/MIA
Tenneesee to do well on offense in the first half, and on D in the 2nd half.  Dolphins might be able to match strides in 1Q but that is all.
Monday night game prediction will arrive early Monday.
Enlightened Trails are updated through the Fitz Dixon Juvenile Memorial Stakes at Presque Isle, which sees our first two-time winner of a Trails race in Wellabled. 3rd in that race was Romeo O Romeo, who was 2nd to Wellabled in the Arlington Washington Futurity.
I have built divisions for the horses, properly reflecting the locations of tracks with Graded races, and the minors for all those without Graded events at the top level.
I am doing a contest at Charles Town, presented by The Racing Biz. I have little time to handicap and get it done in one day, so I’m using a shortcut method to figure it all out.  The contest has no prizes; it’s just for bragging rights.
Meanwhile, in what does count for you, dear reader, is my take on beautiful Belmont Park’s representative races for the Trails, the Champagne and Frizette Stakes.

The Frizette Stakes is a Grade 1, $400k race for top 2YO fillies, going 1 mile on the dirt. This is the 3rd of the 4 Northeast Division races in the Oaks Trails.
Entering this race, just one horse has any ET points; Star Super was 3rd in the Sorority at Monmouth, good for 25 points in the Minor division.
My top 3 horses are Libby’s Tail, Yellow Agate and Nonna Mela.
Libby’s Tail won her maiden debut at Belmont, a wide trip vs 75k maiden fillies. Following a 7 week layoff, she appeared in the Grade 2 Adirondack and finished 4th. It was a similar uneven sort of trip, and a similar speed figure. Only early closer in the field. I’m banking on her consistency, considering her 2nd consecutive start following layoff. Good price at 8-1.

2 overlay possibilities here: The aforementioned Star Super bounced last time out in her Sorority run. Despite a bumpy start, her 77 speed figure is still plenty fast to compete with today’s field.   The other longshot, Colorful Charades, won her debut vs 83k maiden fillies at Saratoga on an off track. There is rain in the forecast today. Track bias is favoring pure sprinters (8 wins in 20 dirt miles during the meet) and posts 4-7 (18%). Also has the best workouts of the field.

On the Derby side there is the Champagne Stakes, a 500k race for top 2YO colts, going 1 mile on the Belmont dirt.   Top 3 for me are Practical Joke, Favorable Outcome and Lookin At Blessing.    Coming into this race, Practical Joke has the lone ET points, 250 points, for winning the Hopeful at Saratoga.  Paired up his maiden debut with a 2nd 90 speed rating. Turn time is easily best of the field. Only early closer here.
No overlays in this race.  Not looking for any upsets here.

Later on Saturday or overnight, I’ll post the rest of my NFL momentum predictions.

NFL Week 5 momentum predictions (2 games, beginning of a series)

With week 5 in the 2016 season past the quarter pole, I start up again with the mean/binomial projections of how the momentum of a football game will change.  This is the 2nd year I am introducing this system, which I originally introduced some years back for the Super Bowl. I’ll roll out 2-4 games a day, and 1 for the Monday night contest.
An example of the madness is on this post:
Today’s offerings:
Bears vs Colts:
1st quarter: Colts edge on offense and defense
2nd quarter: Bears defense takes over
3rd quarter: All Bears, both sides of the ball.
4th: Status quo
Titans vs Dolphins:
1st quarter: Both sides duking it out with the ball.
2nd: Titans offense remains strong
3rd: Titans D in charge, through the rest of the half as well.

2 more games coming on Wednesday.