A nice collection of Oklahoma bred horses invade OKC’s Remington Park this evening. I am participating by picking contenders in 6 of the stakes races through the track’s ThoroEnduro elimination contest. I’m in the middle of the pack thus far, with 2 lives remaining. Here is some in-depth thoughts on the contest races:
Race 5 is the OK Classics Distaff Turf, 8.5 furlongs, fillies/mares 3YO+ bred in OK.
Top 3 are favored Zeta Zody, Lingering Smoke, and Penguini.
Overlays (judged against morning-line): Onemorefastdance.
Lingering Smoke the best possible value play here. 3rd in the B Barry Memorial here last time out, first after claim and summer layoff, this 5YO improved on her 2nd call numbers with the route to sprint move, as well as some gain on the leader. Owns a prior win while stretching out, and is waiting as long as others to stretch out, nearly 4 weeks.
Next in race 6 is the OK Classics Sprint, 6 furlongs for 3YO+ OK breds. Top 3 are Okie Ride, Johnny Whip and Welder.
Overlays: Johnny Whip, and My Validation.
Johnny Whip won the Route 66 at Fairmont on 7/30, then was 8th in the Red Earth here on 9/25. Improved 5 notches in speed rating 1st after layoff last out at 1st call. Also had slight gain on leader by 2nd call.
My Validation has 4 wins in 5 races, tho took 2nd last out in a DQ, and is offically 14-3-1-1 lifetime. 0-4 on the dirt at RP. Only horse who is on influence of recent pace; comes out of gain to 87, a nice new top, and can be regarded as the speed here. Early-presser type, favored at this distance (24 wins in 63 races, 38%), along with the middle post (14% wins). Best works of the field too, 4 of them here, 3 of them fast.
Overlays: None to be found.
Irish Capital won 2nd maiden effort, then was 9th in the Kip Deville here on 9/25. Leading AWD numbers here (Dublin/Taylor Madison, out of Kipling). Another early-presser type that should fair well via track bias (see above). Good turn time compared to others.
Uncle Pup I like for 3rd, who was competitive but hasn’t shown all that much since maiden victory in July plus layoff. 3 races back he posted a lifetime best 77 on 8/31…I consider him somewhat influenced by that number to run back to. Only deep closer in the field.
Race 8 is the OK Classics Lassie, 2YO fillies going 6 furlongs. Top 3 are Claire’s Music, Natalie’s Mischief and Js Pearljam. Overlays: 4 of ‘em: Cuando Again, Js Pearljam, Sparkled and Natalie’s Mischief. Nice opportunity to score here.
Natalie’s Mischief a maiden still after 2 races. Only deep closer in the field and gets maximum 4 lb. allowance.
Js Pearljam likewise a maiden after 2 races shows best turn time overall of this field and the same 4 lb allowance.
Overlay: Ted’s Folly. Another good race with promising value.
Another great value race. Charlie Webb a late closer who caught a great stretch run last out in a mile race, closing from 7th to finish 1.5 lengths out in 2nd, 4-wide while doing so. 87 speed figure for the effort is sharp. Only deep closer here so he is dangerous. 3 works at RP since, 1 a bullet.