Enlightened Trails update, and weekend stakes analysis

It’s another busy handicapping Saturday for yours truly:
Free private contest from DRF Tournaments, with races at Kentucky Downs, Belmont, Arlington in the mix (5 of 7 yet to cover)
ThoroEnduro elim contest day two at Remington (3 races)
The Racing Biz monthly contest with Mid-Atlantic tracks involved (10 races)
Enlightened Trails races in 3 locales this weekend, which I have already done for you here (2 are part of the DRF contest)
For the Trails, we start with the Arlington-Washington Lassie, a race for 2YO fillies, going 7 furlongs, and for a 75k purse. My top 3 are R Naja, Sister Kan and Diadura
In terms of EOT points, all horses here are fresh on the trail, none having run beyond maiden status previously.
R Naja had the fastest run of all non-winners coming in out of a trouble trip.  His 2nd place finish in a 26k maiden event was good for a 76 Brisnet number at 5.5 furlongs. This deep closer had to run rather wide around the AP far turn  to be and to stay competitive. Has one of the better turn-times of the field.
Overlays: Hidenseek Sally, Sister Kan.  Seeking big prices in this race.

Next is the Arlington Washington Futurity, for 2YO colts going 7 furlongs for a 100k purse in this Grade 3 event.  In my top 3 are 2 overlays, Brave Benny and Stand and Cheer, followed by favored Wellabled.
Brave Benny won his maiden debut here in June at 4.5 furlongs with a nice 81 score, then was 5th in the Prairie Gold Juvenile at Prairie Meadows.  No Bute for this horse this time around, plus he’s been off since July 29.  Great workouts, 3 at AP, 2 bullets. Despite 5th last time out, this sprinter improved a bit on the leader.

Now to Louisiana Downs:
The Happy Ticket is for top 2YO fillies, running 1 mile on the LaD turf course, for a 75k purse. Top 3: Long Legged Model, Chases Dixie Belle and High Fashion Diva.  Chases Dixie Belle enters with 50 EOT points.   Overlays: longshot Careless Whisper.
Long Legged Model won her maiden debut with 58 Brisnet at 5 furlongs, then 2nd in the Louisiana Cup Juvenile on 8/6 with a nice 76 score.  Best turn time of the field, 22.8 in last race and 24.2 in previous, a gain of 1.4 seconds.
Last one for Saturday is the Sunday Silence, a 75k race for top 2YOs, going 1 mile on the turf.  Top 3 for me are Gentlemengentlemen, My Golden Aura, and Paddy O’Lionel.  N overlays here but I don’t see the favorite at all in this one showing up.
Gentlemengentlemen won both of his lifetime events, a 24k maiden race at 5 furlongs and 79 speed figure, and the LA Cup Juvenile with a 79 score. Never behind at any point of call, this sprinter managed a 96 1st call last time, and should benefit from track bias. Horses in the first 3 posts in turf routes are winning 14%, better trend than other posts.

On Sunday, it’s closing day at my home track of Emerald Downs. Their most important race that would fit on the Derby Trail is the Gottstein Futurity. It’s a race for top 2YOs foaled in 2014, for a 65k purse, running 8.5 furlongs.   Top 3 are Blazinbeauty, So Lucky, Mysterious Man.  Blazinbeauty and Sharkzilla are overlays.
Blazinbeauty was 2nd in her maiden debut, then 2nd in the Angie C, then won the Barbara Shinpoch (earlier race on the Enlightened Oaks Trail side), setting 2 small new tops, with 74 her best score.  Only filly in the bunch, getting 3 lb allowance; waiting a month to stretch from a sprint. Only early closer in the race. Track bias favoring early closers in dirt routes during the meet (42% winners), and 19% in posts 1-3. 3 works at Emerald, 1 fast.

Next, I’ll give brief summary of  my contest picks. With so many races, I must do a shortcut method, sticking to my most important variables, to find winners.

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