2016 Kentucky Oaks horse by horse analysis

Here’s my horse-by-horse synopsis of the 2016 Kentucky Oaks participants:
1: TERRA PROMESSA: 3rd in maiden debut, won 4 straight since including the graded Honeybee and Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn. Only horse in the field coming from small new top. Set bar at 86 in her maiden win, then 88 in the Honeybee. Solid similar figures in her 4 wins. Has 2 shipping wins, and 1 while stretching out in distance. Lower speed figure last out while increasing turn time. Best success when pace slows down.
Outlook: I have her ranked overall as 2nd best, owing to slight uptick in pace and her consistency. Morning line 10-1. My odds: 9-1.
2: WEEP NO MORE: 8th in her maiden debut at Churchill, won 3 straight since, including the Suncoast, then the Grade 1 Ashland.  Increased speed figure in each race beyond her first, best last out with 95. I have to think she will bounce eventually, tho deep closers like her don’t as often as pure sprinters. 2 shipping wins, 2 wins while stretching out.  Prefers a quickening pace. Best turn time and turn time gain between her last 2 races.  This was evident in her win in the Ashland, coming from 13 lengths at 1st call, 12 lengths at 2nd, 6 lengths in the stretch.
Outlook: Ranked to finish 4th overall, very very close between Rachel’s Valentina and Cathryn Sophia. The difference is in Weep No More’s better success in pace now plus the turn time difference. Morning line 9-2. My odds: 11-1.
3: LEWIS BAY: 2nd in maiden debut, would win next time at Belmont, 2nd in the Davona Dale, winner of the Demoiselle and the Gazelle at Aqueduct.  Best dosage profile resembling winners at Churchill (Bernardini/Summer Raven, out of Summer Squall). 99 last out in the Gazelle is best for the 9-furlong distance from this field. It does represent a sharp gain from the prior race, and also matches the track par for the distance, so I’m prepared for a bounce. 2 shipping wins. Prefers a slowed-down pace.
Outlook: Ranked in odds at 74-1, beyond her morning-line ranking of 8-1. I give her credit for pedigree, but the large spike to track par suggests a downward path in this race. I have her ranked last in finish.
4: GO MAGGIE GO won both lifetime starts, each at Gulfstream Park, the latter being the GP Oaks..  Won the GP Oaks while going sprint to route. One of the better dosage profiles (Ghostzapper/Magibel, by Tale Of The Cat). Needs a relatively slow pace.
Outlook: I rank her to finish 8th. Morning line 12/1. My odds: 74-1. Basically she has no real chance. 2 races, none at age 2, really lacks experience.
5 DREAM DANCE: Active since last June, broke maiden in 3rd try, moved from sprints to routes and stakes races. 3rd in the Pocahontas, 5th in the Alcibiad, 2nd in the Rags to Riches, 3rd in the Golden Rod, 2nd in the FG Oaks, and winner of an allowance race last time out. Best Churchill speed figure, a 90 in the Golden Rod. Consistent before and after but has not surpassed that score. Improved on leader and in turn time despite lower speed figure in that allowance race. 1 stretchout win. Best turn time gain between last 2 races, 1.4 seconds.  550 points in the EOT, not enough for my mythical field.
Outlook: I judge her to be a minor overlay at 14-1, better than her morning line of 30-1. I have picked her to finish 6th, owing to her track speed here.
6: MOKAT:   Graduated maiden in 2nd attempt, was 2nd in the Jimmy Durante, placed in 2 optional claimers, 3rd in the Santa Ysabel, 2nd in the Santa Anita Oaks. Won maiden, her only lifetime win, switching from sprint to route and dirt to turf.
Outlook: Did not get an odds rating from me, and is actually outclassed in all variables I work with.  I rank her next to last. One of the five Future Wager field selections.
7: MO D’AMOUR: 250 EOT points, not enough for my Trail. Won maiden debut, placed 7th in the Demoiselle, 3rd in the Ruthless, won a 50k optional claimer, won the Busher at Aqueduct, then was 3rd in the Gazelle.  Steady increases in pace through her career. Last out was her best at 89.  2 shipping wins. Requires a slight slowdown in pace.
Outlook: Like Mokat, outclassed, no real chance at all, no odds rating. I have her ranked to finish 13th.
8 ROYAL OBSESSION: Won her maiden debut here, also won a 50k optional claimer in 3YO and route debut. 4th in the Rachel Alexandra, 2nd in the Gazelle. Improved speed rating with each race.  Certainly a bounce risk as she went up 10 points in Brisnet in the Gazelle. She seems the fastest horse among those who had noticeable trouble in the last race. She got bumped around at the start of the Gazelle, and remained in the 2 path halfway through, never really challenging the winner, Lewis Bay, until it was too late. I think she could have won that race, noting that it was a muddy track, plus she sharply improved on her 2nd call numbers first race after layoff (only Rachel’s Valentina had a similar showing). Owns 1 shipping win, and brings back Florent Geroux to ride, who rode her to victory in January in an optional claimer.
Outlook: Predicted to finish 7th. Morning line odds: 20/1. My odds: 8-1. Definite overlay. She’s also a Future Wager field horse.
9 PAOLA QUEEN had one of the better dosage profiles (Flatter/Kadira, out of Kafwain). Won maiden race in 4th tray at Gulfstream at 50k, then finished 2nd in the GP Oaks in her route debut. Tripled up speed figures beyond her initial 2 races. Only pure sprinter in the field. 500 EOT points from the South division, would not have made my mythical field.
Outlook: I have her last, or next to last. I’m not confident she can continue racing with 90+ speed figures. Future Wager field horse.  By my definition she is an overlay but a risky one.
10 VENUS VALENTINE with just 25 EOT points was never in my crosshairs for my mythical Oaks. Yet she’s got an impressive background that suggests a win. Only filly in the field who can bounce back. She peaked with an 89 2 races back in the Rachel Alexandra, bouncing to an 80 running 5th in the FG Oaks.  Prior to this she had ran in the 70s in 4 races. The Rachel Alexandra was her 1 stretchout win. Trainer Thomas Amoss is adding blinkers for this race. She’s also one of two who are waiting since the FG Oaks to stretch out (March 26).
Outlook: This is your Oaks winner. I have her at 2-1, a nice overlay ahead of the 30-1 morning line.
11 RACHEL’S VALENTINA won her first 2 races, a maiden debut, then the Grade 1 Spinaway. Followed up with 2 seconds, the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and the Ashland. John Velazquez, who got both wins for her, returns to ride. Only other filly to improve at 2nd call first after layoff. Best pace numbers in the field considering run style. Increased turn time a bit while a tick down in speed rating.  Won both of her races with a moderate fast start.
Outlook: Predicted to finish 5th, very close between the aforementioned Cathryn Sophia and Weep No More. Morning line 7/2 and favored. I would make her 11-1.
12 CATHRYN SOPHIA gathered 250 EOT points, not enough for my Oaks, yet all she has done is win her first 4 races; maiden debut, the Gin Talking, the Forward Gal, and the Davona Dale. 3rd in the Ashland last time out.  Owns fastest overall pace numbers (lifetime: 99, 102, 99, 96, 94). 2 stretch out wins, 2 shipping wins.  Has the fastest patterned speed ratings for certain. Nice 1st/2nd call and turn time gain between last 2 races. Requires a slow and slowing pace to win.
Outlook: Ranked to finish 3rd, winning tiebreak between 2 others but not by much. Morning line 9/2. My odds 11/1.
13 LAND OVER SEA  2nd in maiden debut, won in 2nd try. 3rd in the Del Mar Debutante, 2nd in the Chandler, 7th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. 2nd in the Santa Ysabel and Las Virginnes, then won the FG Oaks last time out. Also waiting since 3/26 to stretch. JR Velazquez rode her to victory in the FG Oaks, regular rider Mario Gutierrez returns. Won her races with moderately fast consistent fractions. 1 stretchout win, 2 shipping wins.
Outlook: 9th. Morning  line: 5/1. My odds: Not ranked.  Trainer Doug O’Neill made a series of good changes here but this filly lacks evidence to win today.
14: TAXABLE: 500 EOT points from the heavily contested South division would have not made the cut for this filly.  Won her maiden debut, then won a 75k optional claimer first try at route, then 2nd in the Fantasy Stakes.  Best AWD numbers of the field (Tapit/Jackpot Joanie, out of Giant’s Causeway). Forged lifetime best of 89 in the OC 75k race, paired with an 86. I have to suspect the possibility of bouncing. 1 shipping win, 1 stretchout.
Outlook: 8th. My odds are 74-1, not near the morning line of 20-1.
Should there be a scratch, DOTHRAKI QUEEN draws into the field. Ken McPeek did a nice job of changes here: 1 stretchout win, 1 shipping win, reapplication of Lasix here, and she has a prior win switching from turf to dirt.  Needs pace to collapse for this deep closer to succeed.
Outlook: 10th. Not ranked in odds.
The wager:
I would place win bets among my top 3 for those worse than 5-1 at post time, and exactas to each other with these rules: No wagering 1st and 2nd or 1st and 3rd choices to each other, and no longshots with longshots (10-1 or worse).
I have 4 overlays: Venus Valentine, Dream Dance, Royal Obsession and Paola Queen. Should any overlays still be present at post time, I’ll play these to win also, and underneath the top 2 favorites, whomever they happen to be.
I have already spent $18 on this race. Here are the wagers I’ve made via the Future Wager:
Exacta box: Carina Mia, Rachel’s Valentinea, Songbird. This box is busted as 2 horses are scratched.
Exacta of future wager field over Carina Mia, Rachel’s Valentina and Songbird.   The 5 field horses all have a shot vs Rachel’s! I also have the reverse angle:  Carina, Rachel’s and Songbird over those 5 horses.
Win bets on Dothraki Queen (52-1!), Rachel’s Valentina (13-1), Carina Mia.   If Dothraki Queen somehow gets in, and wins….

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