Here’s my take on the all-stakes Pick 4 races at Belmont Park. I’ll give you a capsule form of races 4-9 of the Emerald Downs races later on.
RUFFIAN Stakes is a Grade 2 event for top fillies, going 1 mile on the muddy main track.
Top 3 are Welcome Aboard, Cavorting, Carrumba.
In using the big longshot of the 6 of this field, I am hoping that Welcome Aboard will represent good positive hidden pace form with an improved turn time as of late. Only early closer of the field. Light weight of the field too, carrying 115. Competitive works and similar move vs leader at 2nd call, so can’t throw out.
Overlay: Welcome Aboard
Speed requirements: Cavorting, early presser, needs a pace that slows down between calls.
Include Betty, deep closer, needs slower fractions between also. Spelling Again, early presser, needs slow and slowing fractions. Calamity Kane, sprinter, needs slow pace in general.
BEAUGAY STAKES is for top older fillies, 4YO+, going 8.5 furlongs on firm turf.
Top 3 will use of the favorites: Ball Dancing, Ticking Kate, My Miss Sophia.
g a deserving favorite, winner of the Jenny Wiley last year and the Sands Point in 2014, plus several races in France. Enters with best AWD numbers (Exchange Rate/Ball Gown by Silver Hawk)Prior wins first off layoff. Best work tab of the field.
This is a race I’d totally key the longshot Ticking Kate against the faves, who is my overlay as well. The case for Ticking Kate: multiple stakes winner in England, 5th race in the States, goes back to Belmont and back to a route as well. I’m aiming for her to run back to her 94 in the Canadian at Woodbine 2 races back. Prior win off layoff, fastest turn time of the field at 23.8.
Speed requirements: Recepta, closer, needs a fast pace at the beginning that slows down later. Tapitry, early presser, needs pace that slows down somewhat.
Sistas Stroll, closer, like Recepta, needs a fast pace that slows down.
Strike Charmer, closer, needs a fast pace.
Next is the Grade 2 PETER PAN, 9 furlongs on the ‘good’ Belmont dirt.
Top 3 are Singleton, Governor Malibu and Adventist. Totally using longshot and mild value, avoiding all chalk.
Singleton still a maiden after 4 races, showed promise 2 races back with a 98 score at Gulfstream at this distance. He is attempting to run back to that number after bounce last time. Track bias for distance and post is currently favoring posts 1-3. Turn time gain, plus his bounced figure of 81 shows he’s got much more in the tank.
Singleton and Governor Malibu, plus Wild About Deb are my 3 overlays here. Governor Malibu owns best Belmont speed of these with 91. Dropping 6 lbs to carry here, won with a 4 lbs drop earlier in career. Positive jockey switch to Joel Rosario at 22% and prior win with him, 2 shipping wins also.
Wild About Deb broke maiden in 2nd effort with a 99 last month at Santa Anita on a sloppy track. That score is best for the distance of this field. Also best AWD numbers (Eskenderaya/Smarty Deb, out of Smart Strike). Only early closer in the race. Improved on 2nd call last time out 1st after layoff. 24 second turn time leads this field.
Speed requirements: Governor Malibu needs a very slow pace. Unified needs a moderate pace that slows up.
Finally the MAN O’WAR Stakes, 4YOs+ going 11 furlongs on the inner turf. Top 3: Go Around, Closing Bell, Biz The Nurse.
Go Around: Won the Turf Classic at Tampa Bay last time out. Only horse in good pace form: Set new small top last time with a 99 figure, a few points ahead of his 95 in the Saranac at Saratoga. Fastest horse as measured by run style. Only early/presser type in the field, suggesting his tactical speed may be advantageous. All 4 of his wins are shipping wins, and he did win here a year ago today.
Overlays: Each horse in my top 3, basically. Closing Bell won a 300k stakes event at Kentucky Downs last year. Good work tab in comparison to these with 2 bullets. 2 shipping wins. Adds blinkers, Waiting 7 weeks to stretch out 2 more furlongs. Biz The Nurse is the big longshot. Racing vs top horses in Italy, she did win her US debut 14 months ago, with no real success since. Took a wide trip in the stretch last time, caused a DQ, still posted a 3rd straight 97 figure. I feel he can do better. This deep closer seems to have the fastest pace numbers of the field, and has consistent figures at that.
Speed requirements: Go Around, early presser, needs a pace that improves as the race goes on.