First Kentucky Derby 2016 analysis

Today I began examining the updated past performances via Brisnet to see how this year’s Derby might turn out with all potential eligible horses, 27 in all.    I did my usual array of variables instead of the handful I stuck to for the future wager pools.   I was rather surprised at the results.  Here are those that ranked at all, not considering jockeys/trainers or odds:
1st: Destin. Only horse to win first off layoff or otherwise first lifetime win in such scenario, he is waiting a full 8 weeks to stretch out (Tampa Bay Derby). Best turn time and turn time gain of the field of 27
2nd: Mo Tom shares the best Churchill speed figure of the field, a 94, achieved in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Only horse to be reclaimed by original trainer (Thomas Amoss, after victory in the Street Sense).
3rd: Danzing Candy has the best pace form, running a 101 best for 2YO year, spiking to 104 2 races and 8 weeks back in winning the San Felipe. One of a few horses with the ability to explode in pace and bounce back as well. Fastest pace numbers in field as measured by run style (last 3 2nd call numbers: 119, 107, 103). Lifetime pattern of numbers suggest his overall pace should have a nice uptick to 103.
4th: Mor Spirit ran 2nd in the KY Jockey Club and also gets the 94 speed figure for Churchill.
After this, there are 2 scenarios:
Should there be a wet track I put Exaggerator 5th. Best wet track run of the field, a 103 last out in the Santa Anita Derby. Fastest pace numbers overall.
On a standard dry track I’ll take Exaggerator out and use Oscar Nominated instead. This late entrant to the Derby has the best AWD numbers of the field (Kitten’s Joy/Devine Actress, by Theatrical).
After this I have 2 horses rather even with each other, both who’ve had to overcome challenging trips last out: Suddenbreakingnews (Ark Derby) and Tom’s Ready (Louisiana Derby)
Every few days I’ll examine the list and report on any repositioning.

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