Enlightened Derby Trail update/Arkansas Derby analysis

With the announcement of the entries for the Arkansas Derby, the Trials are
all over but the shouting.   Within the South division, there are 3 horses
with 1000.  Of the 12, just one horse has any points at all, enough
Therefore, the outright winner of this race will be the 4th and final solid
entrant in the division and no existing conflicts between horses with points
from other divisions.
So the Trails are complete.  The spreadsheet is updated to reflect the 19
Yes there is the one final race in the actual Trail, but I’m confident that
the 19 already labeled are my official ones.
Nightly News: 500 points. Winner of the Turf Paradise Derby
Abiding Star: 500 points. Winner of the Private Terms.
Two Step Time: 500 points, 625 total. Winner of the Texas Heritage Stakes.
4th in the Spiral Stakes (Heartland).
Gunfire: 250 points. 2nd in the Turf Paradise Derby
Flash McCaul: 250 points. 2nd in the Private Terms.
Berniestrike 250 points: 2nd in the Texas Heritage Stakes.
Gunfire and Flash McCaul rank ahead of the 3 because they finished 2nd in
higher purses than Berniestrike did. All 3 ran at the same distance.  But I
have room for just one, and none of the 3 have points from any other
division. Not sure how to resolve this yet.
Outwork: 1000 points, 1500 total. Winner of the Wood Memorial; 2nd in the
Tampa Bay Derby.
Adventist: 500 points. 2nd in the Wood Memorial
Trojan Nation: 250 points. 3rd in the Wood Memorial.
Greenpoint Crusader: 250 points: Winner of the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, 1
mile, 500k purse.   He wins tiebreak over Ralis and Conquest Daddyo. Ralis
won the Grade 1 Hopeful (7 furlongs, 350k) at Saratoga, while Conquest
Daddyo won the Grade 2 Sumner (1 mile, 200k).
Brody’s Cause 1050 points.Winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, 3rd in the BC
Oscar Nominated 1000 points. Winner of the Spiral Stakes.
Azar 500 points.2nd in the Spiral Stakes.
My Man Sam 500 points. 2nd in the Blue Grass.
Frank Conversation, 1000 points. Winner of the El Camino Real
Exaggerator, 1000 points, 1275 overall. Winner of the Santa Anita Derby and
Delta Downs Jackpot; 4th in the BC Juvenile.
Tusk, 500 points. 2nd in the El Camino Real.
Mor Spirit, 500 points, 600 overall. 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby and the KY
Jockey Club.
SOUTH: Barring unusual circumstances, the Arkansas Derby winner will join
Destin: 1000 points.  Winner of the Tampa Bay Derby.
Gun Runner: 1000 points, 1025 points total. Winner of the Louisiana
Derby.4th in the KY Jockey Club.
Nyquist: 1000 points, 1500 points. Winner of the BC Juvenile, Del Mar
Futurity and Florida Derby.
I am in agreement with just 10 of the current top 20.
Here’s how I see the Arkansas Derby, a Grade 1 race for top 3YOs, running 9
furlongs at Oaklawn on Saturday.  A number of good horses here, some that
I’ve considered in Future Wagers, some with actual Derby points, each
needing to win out to make it to the big race. Here’s my top 3:
Gettysburg exited the Sunland Stakes last time with a 100 Brisnet score in a
wide trip, best for the 9 furlongs of this field. Owns the best overall pace
numbers, and is the lone early speed.
Creator, another I like in prior future wagers, took 6 tries to break
maiden, then finishes 3rd in the Rebel last time out. Best AWD numbers
(Tapit, Morena, by Privately Held,      One of two horses who has strong
pace form. Set small lifetime top of 93 2 races back here on 2/27, then a 95
in the Rebel.  3 works at Oaklawn, his lone 5 furlong work was fast.
American Pioneer graduated in his 2nd start, and 1 race off layoff, both
races here at OP and at routes. Only horse in the field to win while moving
up in class.
Suggested odds: Creator 4-1; Gettysburg 8-5; Cupid 14-1; Whitmore 9-1; Gray
Sky 9-1; American Pioneer 5-1.  Overlays: Creator, Gettysburg, Gray Sky.
Case against Cupid, lone favorite: is outranked by all horses in my
variables tho does have best track speed of the field. Playing for a sure
upset tho I can’t totally throw out Cupid in exactas.   Gettysburg and
Creator I am rooting with my heart for as they are 2 future wager straight
win selections.

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