Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 analysis

With the Future Wager, Pool 4 edition at hand and already begun, I have a ton of horses to examine to see who might be taking less money and be worthy of quick selection. The tricky part to some extent is picking those now who are on the outside looking iun.  15 points gets you in the top 20, but realistically, 40 points seems more like it by the time the top races have run.
I’ve added dosage profile (courtesy to http://www.chef-de-race.com and http://www.pedigreequery.com) to the list of variables, making 7 total. Those that ranked in the top 7 of each the most are the ones I’ll consider first.   I had to use a 2nd series of tiebreaks to get down to horses with 3 top 7 appearances.  The categories: combined AWD stats, longest distance win, best class win, 2YO pace progress, current pace, best Churchill Downs speed figure, and dosage.
For this pool I’m taking my top 3 horses provided they are no better than 6-1 and those that I am getting worse $ on among those I’ve wagered on prior by at least a a $10 (5-1) margin.  For example, if I wagered on a horse at 6-1 and it’s dropped to 11-1, that will be just enough for me to consider another win bet.     The 3 I select in order of my rank will get $2 win bets. I skip over other horses as necessary.
For exactas I’ll take my overall top 3 and box them $1 each.  My exceptions will be using 2 horses under 6-1 each, also I will not repeat my prior exacta combo of Mohaymen, Brody’s Cause and Exaggerator.
Here’s a recap of who I’ve taken so far:
Pool 1:
Pool 1:
Gun Runner 57-1
Greenpointcrusader 28-1 (11-1 also via Bernardini in the Sire Future Wager)
Brody’s Cause 21-1
Exaggerator 25-1
Nyquist 9-1
Also, from the Sire Future Wager are all progeny from these:
Uncle Mo: 9-1
Tapit 7-1
Hard Spun 37-1
Kitten’s Joy 40-1
Pool 2:
Cocked & Loaded 96-1
Airoforce 16-1
Cherry Wine 31-1
Mor Spirit 12-1
Gettysburg 72-1
Pool 3:
$2 Win bets on:
Matt King Coal 43-1
Smokey Image 32-1
Suddenbreakingnews 14-1 (ranked 10th on my list)
$1 Exactas:
Exaggerator/Mohaymen/Brody’s Cause box, and over/under field selections
Odds for these: Exaggerator 23-1; Mohaymen 7-2; Brody’s Cause 21-1.
Now the rankings:
6th: Creator: last of the 5 horses in the 2nd place tiebreak but may well end up with a win bet, opening at 30-1. 2nd best AWD numbers as well as best dosage, which makes him the best-bred of the 23. Sire is Tapit, damsire Privately Held, who became a stallion in Peru, sired some stakes winners there.  Dam is champion Peruvian-bred Morena. 34th on the actual Derby Trail, certainly needs points as he has just 10. Broke maiden in 6th try at 8.5 furlongs, followed up with a 3rd in the Rebel last time out. 2 races at Churchill, best rating of 91.  Pointed toward the Arkansas Derby 4/16.
5th: Matt King Coal 2 wins, 4-2-1-1 lifetime. FL-bred NY runner might factor in too if I can get him worse than 50-1, which is where he’s opening. Broke maiden in 3rd race, won an 80k optional claimer. One of the faster paced horses here (101, 96, 96 his last 3 races). One of the better dosage profiles too (Cool Coal Man/Donna Marie, by Came Home). One of 6 horses with strong 2YO pace progression. No points on the Trail yet, so will need a top 2 in the Wood Memorial 4/9
4th: Mor Spirit, 1st or 2nd in 6 lifetime won the Robert B Lewis and the Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade 1), 2nd in the KY Jockey Club (94 Brisnet) and the San Felipe.  Last 3 pace figures: 102, 99, 96.  Will be in the Santa Anita Derby 4/9. Opening at 12-1, same price I have him at. Looks well in hand, ranked 8 on the Trail with 44 points.
Now we get to the exacta portion!
3rd: Exaggerator ranks 13th on the Trail with 26 points and should be able to survive to be in the top 20. Will be in the Santa Anita Derby on 4/9.  Won the Delta Downs Jackpot (grade 3) and the Saratoga Special (grade 2).  Triple-digit Brisnet ratings in last 3 races.  Opens at 20-1. I have him at 25-1, so he may be a borderline case. 2YO pace progression success too.
2nd: Mohaymen: undefeated in 5, winner of 4 Grade 2 races. Last 3 pace numbers 102, 99, 96. One of 3 horses to already win at 9 furlongs.  One of the leading dosage profiles (Eskenderaya/I’m A Dixie, by Dixie Union). Runs tomorrow in the Florida Derby.
1st: Gun Runner vaults to the top here after being in my top 5 all the while. 4 wins in 5, winner of the Louisiana Derby (9 furlongs) and Risen Star (Grade 2), 4th in the KY Jockey Club. You’ll see him next on Derby Day. No chance I’ll wager on him here as he’s opening at 15-1 and I already have a precious 57-1 bet on him from Pool 1. One of the leading AWD combos (Candy Ride/Quiet Giant out of Giant’s Causeway). 92 Brisnet in the KY Jockey Club at Churchill. One of the better pace rating totals. Last 3 are 104, 97, 92.
If I can score a potentially better payout for a Mohaymen/Exaggerator exacta, I’ll do a 2nd such bet within the box combos. If not, then I will use Mor Spirit instead of Exaggerator.  Then again, I will not use the top 1-2 or 1-3 horses in a field for an exacta.
Here are the others that I’ll drop down to in descending order if I can’t get 3 win bets out of my top 5:
Tom’s Ready: All but Derby-safe with 44 points and 9th overall. 88 Brisnet at Churchill, finishing 2nd in the Street Sense last year. Good 2YO pace progress and very good dosage profile. Opening at 20-1 and a new shooter for me, so chances are certainly good. Next race is the KY Derby.
Lani: Definitely in the Derby, 2nd overall.  Winner of the UAE Derby.  Hard to figure as he’s got no pace ratings to go on, but from reading his furlong speeds, he is likely rather slow compared to others. Still, he has that Grade 2 win, and at 9.5 furlongs at that. A leading AWD horse (Tapit/Heavenly Romance, by Sunday Silence). Opens at realistic longshot numbers of 50-1. Churchill is next for him.
Suddenbreakingnews: Borderline case, 29th with 10 points. I have him at 14-1 from a prior pool, opens at 30-1.  If he’s worse than 19-1, I might do the double dip and put another wager on him. Grade 3 win in the Southwest (8.5 furlongs). Good AWD numbers (Mineshaft/Uchitel out of Afleet Alex) Next: Arkansas Derby 4/16.
Cherry Wine: Desperately needs a win, maybe a 2nd, as he has just 5 points. I have him from an earlier pool at  31-1. 4th last out in the Rebel Stakes. 89 Brisnet in her maiden-breaker on Thanksgiving weekend at Churchill. Positive 2YO pace progress. Opening at 20-1, not sure if he’ll take that much less $.  Next race is the Wood Memorial on 4/9
Cupid: Derby-safe with 50 points.   Winner of the Grade 2 8.5 furlong Rebel, after 3 races in the maiden level (lifetime 4-2-1-0). Good dosage profile (Tapit/Pretty n’ Smart, out of Beau Benius) Next up: Arkansas Derby, 4/16
Nyquist:  Almost a mortal lock for the Derby, 12th with 30 points.  Duels with Mohaymen in tomorrow’s Florida Derby. I’d like to think they’ll survive all but a bad trip or placing in respect to future odds. Wins in the Grade 1 San Vincente, Breeders Cup Juvenile, Front Runner, Del Mar Futurity, Best Pal.  Last 3 pace numbers: 103, 97, 96.
Danzing Candy: Derby-safe, 50 points.   Grade 2 winner of the San Felipe. Last 3 pace numbers: 104, 98, 101. Next for him is the Santa Anita Derby.
The benchmarks created by this year’s pool:
Combined AWD of at least 14.7
Grade 1 or 2 winner
Any runs at Churchill
Must average 98+ in last 3 pace ratings
8.5 furlongs wins
Any 2YO pace progress
Above average dosage profile.
Finally with the Sire Future Wager, it’s no big surprise that the two big longshots, Kitten’s Joy and Hard Spun have no Derby points.  Bernardini does have a good crop with points, the best being these:
Greenpointcrusader (ranks 23rd with 14), Zulu (19th with 20), and Shagaf (7th with 50

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