Enlightened Derby/Oaks Trails update; first look at Fair Grounds Oaks

The fun part of the Enlightened Trails is just about here. 7 races remain in either Trail, with the highest number of points being awarded for the top 4, and the very best tracks and their most important races on the real Trail.  This week the South division in both Trails is in focus.
Here are the horses who have scored thus far within, EDT points first:
Exaggerator 250 (275 total)
Sunny Ridge 100 (300 total)
Harlan Punch 50
Found Money 25
Destin 1000
Outwork 500
Star Hill 250
Rafting 125 (225 total)
And the EOT horses:
Jet Black Magic 250
La Apassionatta 100
Above Fashion 50
Learning Curve 25
Baciami Piccola 1000
Enjoy Yourself 500
Family Meeting 250
Princess Princess 125
There are still 2 more races in their respective divisions, the Gulfstream Park Oaks and Fantasy Stakes for the fillies, and the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby for the colts.

The announcement of the Fair Grounds Oaks field, next up for my EOT, came on Sunday.  Just 8 got through the process, 4 of whom have prior points: Midnight On Oconee with 10 points, 4th in the Trapeze; Venus Valentine, 10 points, 4th in the Arlington Washington Lassie; Stageplay, 100 points, 2nd in the Golden Rod; Dream Dance, 50 points, 3rd in the latter race.

Looking at the Equibase past performances I can draw a few conclusions.
Northwest Tale & Stageplay have each posted 94 Bris speed figures here at Fair Grounds, best of the field of 8.
Carina Mia’s 101 last out in the Golden Rod is the best off-track speed of the field
Northwest Tale’s 94 is a small new top compared to his 2015 best of 89. Land Over Sea peaked last time out in the San Ysabel with a 99, ahead of a 95 in the Chandler last September.
All but 2 horses coming in have a prior win off layoff or otherwise won their maiden debut: Dream Dance and Land Over Sea.
Speaking of Land Over Sea, he’s had Brisnet runs in the 90s for his last 4 races, peaking last time out at 99 in the San Ysabel.
As for Dubai, the final fields have been released. No past performances just yet.  I still feel a bit vague and insecure about wagering $ here despite prior success and hardly any variables to work on.  But I will perservere and I will certainly wager on the World Cup and maybe one other race.    Having picked up some extra handicapping skills between’s last year’s race and this, I hope to score a repeat victory.

Podcast coming Friday with my take on the Fair Grounds Oaks and Louisiana Derby, and 2 of the Dubai races, plus a recap of my NCAA success in picking winners.

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