Enlightened Trails update (Fair Grounds) plus Risen Star Stakes thoughts

This week, one race out of 2 in my Enlightened Trails series, turning to the Oaks side and the Arizona Oaks at Turf Paradise. Not having free access to the Derby equivalent, the Turf Paradise Derby, I am skipping coverage of it this year, but I’ll certainly update you on the point totals.

Arizona Oaks is 25k, 1 mile for 3YO fillies.  My top 3 are Protective Shield, Dollys Party Doll, and Big Bad Janine, morning-line favorite plus 2 longshots.
Protective Shield returns from a field-long 8 week layoff, winning the Arizona Juvenile Filly Stakes here at 6.5 furlongs by 7 lengths. Before that, she won her maiden debut, 30k, 6 furlongs 3 weeks prior, winning by 3.  Best track performance came in that debut, an 86. From two lifetime races, appears to be fastest of field according to run style.  4 works since last race, 3 were fastest of group or nearly so.

Dollys Party Doll, 1 win in 4 races,broke maiden status here on 1/9,followed up with a 4th placefinish against 20k maidens. Earned 70 lifetime best in her maiden win on 1/9, bounced to 59 thereafter.  I like playing the bounceback here.
Big Bad Janine with alternating wins in 4 starts, winning vs 12k maidens at Assiniboia Downs last summer, then a 20k optional claimer here last month, first off layoff, earning a strong lifetime best of 73.  Easily the best turn time figures of the field; will not be surprised to see her as a price in the top 3. She is my one overlay here for now.
Suggested odds: Protective Shield 1-1; Big Bad Janine 5-1; Grindstone Shine 11-1; Joan Of Arch 14-1; Dollys Party Doll and Rich Girl 19-1; Hymn’s Girl 29-1.
Switching gears to a major race for the actual Derby Trail plus my own contenders based on the Future Wager, I look at the Risen Star Stakes, Grade 2 event, 8.5 furlongs for top 3YOs, 400k.
My top 2 here are pretty much how the morning line falls:  2-10: Mo Tom and Airoforce.
The case for Mo Tom: winner of the LeComte (Grade 3) here last out, pairing up a 94 Brisnet, which he also scored in the KY Jockey Club prior. Measured as fastest of the field per run style (deep closer).  Only horse here under reclaim (Thomas Amoss). 24 second turn time, quickest of field.
Airoforce won first time with blinkers and first on dirt last out, winning the aforementioned KY Jockey Club. Prior to that, 2nd in the BC Turf, and winner of the Grade 1 Bourbon. This should be his first appearance on fast dirt track.  96 Brisnet in last 2 races, fastest horse for distance here, fastest overall pace. Lifetime scores between 92 and 96.
For 3rd I picked out Forevamo. Winner of the Jean Lafit at Delta Downs in October, 6th in the Delta Downs Jackpot.  Lifetime Brisnets very solid between 80 and 87.  3 fast works in prep, one a bullet at 5 furlongs.  Best turn time gain of the field between last 2 races, 2.2 seconds.
Forevamo is the sole overlay.
Suggested odds: Mo Tom 8-5; Airoforce 7-2; It’s All Relevant and Tom’s Ready 18-1;  Forevamo 9-2;, Zapperini, Candy My Boy 55-1.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s