Please note I’m factoring in an ‘off’ track, and that these were made on Thursday. This post was edited 815am PT reflecting scratches/changes. Also I’ve noted there is fast dirt conditions. Overlays will be noted on my Twitter feed along with further changes.
A huge day of horses for me as I look at racing at Laurel Park, Gulfstream Park and Golden Gate Fields, plus keep an eye on the Enlightened Trails, and some future wagering.
We’ll start with The Racing Biz, and their monthly handicapping contest, usually taking place the 2nd Saturday of every month. I have been playing most months in the last years, winning the sole prize in March 2015. The prizes included swag from the Maryland Jockey Club (pullover sweater, autographed Jim McKay “Maryland Million” hat). I’m aiming for the top prize once again. For this contest, there are 10 races in which I score based on win and place payout, capped at 20-1 per. I have direct free access to all but the 5th at Laurel; 8 races there plus 2 at Gulfstream are hooked up in this contest. I’ll post my top 3 horses, and just list analysis of my best horse for each, plus possible overlays when comparing my betting line to the morning-line
Laurel Park race 1: 25k race, 1 mile, 3YOs
5-4-1: D’Humerus, Bissinger, Hey Willie. Top 2 here I have actually ranked very close together
D’Humerus makes 5th start, 1st under claim, first at route, 20k tag. 1 win, 2 thirds. Exploded/forged pace last time out with small new top of 77. Measured as having fastest speed figures overall. Was part of a 3-horse battle last time out and remained competitive to the final furlong out of 6. One of 2 horses here who won after stretching out. Gets 7-pound allowance. I like his mid 70’s pattern of figures.
Overlays: My top 2 here both fit the bill. The case for Bissinger: Lifetime best 80 for track and distance; 3rd start under reclaim; marginally best works of the field; returning to route after singular sprint effort. Love him at 20-1.
Laurel Park race 2: Optional claimer fillies/mares, 4YO+, conditional, 16k, 6 furlongs
3-2-4: Oh What A Delite, Chica Fabulosa, House Red
Oh What A Delite 2 wins and 2 2nds in 7 total at Laurel. Lifetime best 84 achieved here twice last fall. 2nd such score represented positive pace progress following a year long layoff. Fastest speed figs in the field. Best turn-time speed and gain of the field as well.
Overlays here are my 2nd and 3rd choices. Chica Fabulosa has best AWD numbers; 2 races removed from lifetime best 82 score; best works of the field; nice pattern of speed figures in last 3. House Red posted lifetime best in early November; prior win with stretchout, owns a shipping win; gets 7 lb. allowance
Laurel Park race 3: 10k claimers going a mile, 4YO+, non winners of 3.
3-4-2: Farmer Jones, Consistency, Kowboy King.
Farmer Jones 13-2-2-1 at the distance, best score a 93. Scored 79 in last 3 races. Ranked as having best turn time and gain of the field.
Overlays: Andy’s Love I have at 6-1, below his morning-line of 10-1. 2 races back he set lifetime best of 80, paired with 76 after before being claimed. Returns to route after those 2 sprints.
LATE CHANGE: 2-3-1: Kowboy King, Farmer Jones, Reach For Yield
Laurel Park race 4: Optional-claimers, 32k, fillies/mares 4YO+, nonwinners of 2, 5.5 furlongs.
Dallas Cowgirl comes out of two small lifetime tops, an 86 in May at Charles Town, and an 87 in December here. Fastest horse as measured by run style. 2 very nice works in prep, one a bullet.
Overlays: None. Not much value to work with in this one.
LATE CHANGE: 5-4-8: Loveable Lady, Avie, Pret Say Aye
Laurel race 5 change: 3-9-10: Excellent Royale, Andy Picked Me, Gator Gold, as I choose based on jockey/trainer win %. This is the race I’ve not had access to PPs.
Laurel race 6: Maryland Racing Media Stakes: 8.5 furlongs, 75k purse for fillies/mares 4YO+.
2-3-5 Gypsy Judy, Mei Ling, Agawa.
Taking longshot over what should be a heavy favorite. Gypsy Judy 2 races removed from exploding pace of 94 in the Commonwealth Oaksand subsequent bounce to 72 in a 100k stakes event here in November. 3 works since, last one at 5 furlongs 2nd best of 14. Horacio Karamanos returns to ride (prior winner with her); blinkers go on her too for this. With 3 months away, she must be raring to go.
Overlays: along with Gypsy Judy, Agawa might get less attention. A NY track staple, she has a lifetime best 96 on off-track conditions (there is snow forecast for Saturday); Should bounce back from 80 after reaching 88 to 91 in 3 prior races and layoff. Her 80 first after layoff, and improvement to 90 2nd call above 74 suggests she’s already gaining in form.
Laurel race 7: John B Campbell Stakes is 9 furlongs for 4YO+, 75k.
8-3-5 in a pricey race: Classic Giacnroll, Kobel, Pappa Portmore
Classic Giacnroll hits the board the majority of the time. This 5YO gelding intrigues for one reason only; his improvement on turn time between his last two races dominates everyone here. Returns to route after a 2nd place sprint finish here 2 weeks ago.
Overlays: Besides my top pick, Pappa Portmore should get a piece. 4th race under 2nd reclaim by Sam Davis. Also returns to route after 3 sprints with mixed results.
LATE CHANGE: 7-8-3, picking Souper Lucky over my original 1st and 2nd choices.
Laurel race 8: Barbara Fritchie Handicap, 300k, 7 furlongs for fillies/mares 4YO+
5-1-4: Lady Sabella, Sweet On Smokey, Princess Violet.
Lady Sabella one deserving favorite, 2015 defending champ and winner of a number of ungraded stakes races 12-7-2-2 record at her home Laurel track. 3 wins of 4 on off-track conditions including 102 speed figure. Prior winner first off layoff. True speed of the field. Waiting since December to stretch from 6 furlongs.
Overlays: Sweet On Smokey reliable runner in the past year. Comes out of small new top of 95, 2 nice works since then.
Gulfstream Park race 4: Grade 2 Royal Delta Stakes, 8.5 furlongs for fillies/mares 4YO+, 200k.
6-1-5: Best Behavior, Call Pat, Sandiva in a likely chalk finish.
Best Behavior a consistent placer, 24 of 28 lifetime with Grade 3 placings in her last 2. 16-6-5-3 with 103 best mark here at GP, achieved last out on 12/26. Fastest of these here. Great works, 2 of 3 are bullets at 4 furlongs. Edgard Zayas returns to ride her. Also returning to route after that singular sprint. Concerned that she may bounce from that 103 mark.
LATE CHANGE: 6-4-5: as I replace the scratched Call Pat with Penwith
Gulfstream Park race 5: 7.5 furlongs on the turf course, 25k optional claimers, non winners of 2, fillies/mares 4YO+
4-3-6 Wild About Jass, Tasunke, Share The Music
Wild About Jass for the longshot upset. Deep closers such as her have won 21 of 54 races for surface/distance. On uptick of pace pattern covering last handful of races. Only horse in field to improve from 1st to 2nd call last out.
Overlays: Besides my top pick, Share The Music intrigues. Prior winner first off layoff, busy works during 4 months off. Goes dirt to turf, won last time she made that switch