Super Bowl L score/prop analysis & prediction

With Super Bowl 50 (L) at hand, it’s time to do more longform basic math and rollout my spin on Bill James’ Favorite Toy method, a method that I borrow for determining who will win a paricular matchup and how the flow of the game should go
First, the hard numbers:
Determining by mean average
Offense CAR
1st: 7.22  2nd: 10.61   3rd: 7.77  4th: 6.27
Via binomial:
Offense: 8.84/11.53/7.55/6.14
Defense: 3.80/2.63/5.30/7.50

Denver via mean:

Offense: 4.27/6.44/2.94/7.61
Defense: 3.16/5.77/3.94/5.61
via binomial:
Defense: 4.16/4.96/3.59/6.08
Estimated scoring using mean:
Carolina: 5.39/8.29/5.86/5.94 =  25.38
Denver: 4.07/4.83/4.87/7.22 = 20.99
Carolina by 4.5
using binomial:
Carolina: 6.50/8.25/5.57/6.11 = 26.11
Denver: 4.60/4.17/3.99/7.30 = 20.06
Carolina by 6.
As for the trends;
Carolina offense is upward in 1st half, downward 2nd.
Defense upward first 3 quarters, down in 4th.
Denver: Alternating up/down on both sides, tho both sides 3Q, down in 4th.
Combining the trends, here’s how I see the game:
Carolina should strike early and often in the first, with their defense maintaining hold in 2Q. Denver’s best chance of turning the tide is in 3!, mainly on defense .  The 4th should be largely defensive.
Denver positive biorhythms
QB Peyton
RB Hillman
LB Ware
WR Latimer
TE Davis
LB Marshall
Denver negative
RB CJ Anderson
TE Daniels
P Colquitt
DB Harris
Carolina positive
WR Ginn
DB Coleman
P Nortmann
LB Shaq Thompson
Carolina negative
QB Cam
LB  Keuchly
DB Harper
RB  J Stewart
Prop bets I like
Either scoring first 6.5 minutes of game YES
Final 2 minutes of first half NO
Score in last 3 minutes 30 seconds NO
First kickoff by McManus results in touchback NO
Carolina TD 1Q  YES
Carolina TD 4Q NO
Denver TD 4Q NO
Cam total TD passes UNDER 1.5
Special teams or defensive touchdown? YES

Cam TD pass 1Q  YES

Ginn rushing TD YES
Corey Brown  total catches UNDER 3.5
Nortman UNDER 4.5 punts
Carolina rushing TD 1st half YES
Kurt Coleman OVER 5.5 tackles
Peyton OVER 2 TD passes
Peyton passing TD 3Q  YES
Hillman TD YES
Receptions by Hillman OVER r.5
Shaq Thompson UNDER 4.5 tackles
Owen Daniels OVER 2.5 receptions
Owen Daniels TD YES
Denver OVER 2.5 QB sacks

Cam to throw first interception of game
MVP: Ginn

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