#2 Coup de Grace has appeared mainly in stakes company, winning the Amsterdam and the Bay Shore last year. Out of the money last 3 races. Prior wins with gain in class and stretch in distance, along with a shipping win. One of several with the 5 lbs allowance, 116 lbs today. Gained slightly on leader between calls in the Louisiana Stakes last out,and first after layoff showed a slight improvement at 2nd call from prior.
Arizona Oaks is 25k, 1 mile for 3YO fillies. My top 3 are Protective Shield, Dollys Party Doll, and Big Bad Janine, morning-line favorite plus 2 longshots.
Protective Shield returns from a field-long 8 week layoff, winning the Arizona Juvenile Filly Stakes here at 6.5 furlongs by 7 lengths. Before that, she won her maiden debut, 30k, 6 furlongs 3 weeks prior, winning by 3. Best track performance came in that debut, an 86. From two lifetime races, appears to be fastest of field according to run style. 4 works since last race, 3 were fastest of group or nearly so.
Big Bad Janine with alternating wins in 4 starts, winning vs 12k maidens at Assiniboia Downs last summer, then a 20k optional claimer here last month, first off layoff, earning a strong lifetime best of 73. Easily the best turn time figures of the field; will not be surprised to see her as a price in the top 3. She is my one overlay here for now.
My top 2 here are pretty much how the morning line falls: 2-10: Mo Tom and Airoforce.
The case for Mo Tom: winner of the LeComte (Grade 3) here last out, pairing up a 94 Brisnet, which he also scored in the KY Jockey Club prior. Measured as fastest of the field per run style (deep closer). Only horse here under reclaim (Thomas Amoss). 24 second turn time, quickest of field.
Airoforce won first time with blinkers and first on dirt last out, winning the aforementioned KY Jockey Club. Prior to that, 2nd in the BC Turf, and winner of the Grade 1 Bourbon. This should be his first appearance on fast dirt track. 96 Brisnet in last 2 races, fastest horse for distance here, fastest overall pace. Lifetime scores between 92 and 96.
Public rank: A,C,B
Overlays: None to be found.
One thing I don’t do is play the 1st and 2nd public choices or 1st/3rd choices together in exactas. With that I placed win bet on my value horse #3, and did 2-3, 2-1, 1-2 and 1-3 as exactas, avoiding doing all 6 combos. $6 wagered. Result was 2-4-8 a chalk finish up front. A small loss, easily absorbed.
Race 4: 5-4-8: Loveable Lady, Avie, Pret Say Aye
Overlays: 8, whereas my line suggested 8-1, it was going off at 15-1.
Public top 3 were 5-7-6.
I played win bets on 4 and 8, and did exactas between 5-4, 5-8, 4-5 and 4-8. To avoid playing all 6 combos, I took the horse with the worst odds and did not put her in the front position of the exacta. $8 wagered.
Result was 5-1-2, chalk winning again on top.
Public ranked my horses C,A,B. Not bad. They also ranked the top 3 in odds as 9-2-10.
Overlays: Didn’t compute,as I had no past performances for this one. The wager: Win bet on #3, and exactas 3-9, 9-3, 3-10, 10-3, $6 out.
Result: 10-3-9! Not only did I have the contenders pegged, I hit the $1 wager for $43.60Race 6: 2-3-5, public ranked as C and A. Agawa was a late scratch and I didn’t bother replacing with another for some reason. Public top choices were 3-1-7 Overlays: Gypsy Judy seemed more like 8-5 to me than 12-1. My wager was win on 2, then 3-2 and 1-2 in exactas. Result was 1-7-3, so I took that small loss.
Race 7: 7-8-5: Souper Lucky, Classic Giacnroll, Pappa Portmore. Public ranked them as A,D,D. Public top 3: 11-6-7. Overlays: 9,8,5. I played 8 and 5 to win, and 7 over both in exactas. I also played an extra win bet on 8 and played 11, 6 and 7 over the 8. $11 wagered. Result: 11, 7, 3, chalk in the first 2 spots.
Race 8 at Laurel: 5-1-4, A-D-C. Public top 3: 5-3-6. Overlays: Sweet On Smokey, 1, was the big price at 53-1. I played 1 and 4 to win, then 5-1, 3-1 and 5-4 in exactas. $7 wagered. Result: 6-2-5, a loss for 3rd straight race.
Gulfstream race 4 6-1-5: Best Behavior, Call Pat, Sandiva in a likely chalk finish in a 5 horse field. Call Pat was scratched, so I went instead with 6-4-5, putting Penwith in the 2nd spot. A-A-A. True chalk here and a race I passed up wagering. Result: 4-5-6.
Overall I played $64 in tickets: 1 winning win bet and 2 exactas.Total payout was $117.90.