Going sans podcast this week as i spilled something on the keyboard.Sounds almost cliched, as if it is a sign of aging computer geek, or something. Where have i read of it before? While you muse on that answer, here’s what I’ve lost for a while: down arrow, occasional right arrow, touchpad stability. It’s enough to drive one batty. I’ll need to get one of them cans of air, short of taking ye olde laptop (a gift from my cousin when my 8 year old PC died last year) in for some cleaning and keycap repairs (missing the A, D and right shift keys). Somehow, this laptop still works. While attempting to solve this issue, I had lost the original draft of my notes to go along with each bowl game, just to add color and panache for sake of the Clammrs (those soundbites you hear me use at clammr.com/app/idealisticstats).
Never mind my woes, for herein I do go old school with using the blog as the focus. I do have my bowl projections, just in time for the first games to commence. Attached is a spreadsheet outlining just about all the bowl games, with these variables at stake:
Coach: w/l record of the team’s current coach in bowl games
School: Ditto for the lifetime record of the school in bowls
SOS: Strength of schedule team-for-team (changing from conference strength which I used last year)
TRAVEL: Which team is closer to the neutral field (Y), which team has a virtual home field or is much closer via metro or state locale (H). If both have a ways to travel, I ignore.
YARDS: Average yards per pass attempt of starting QB for the game.
Common opponents: Better W/L record wins out. If both tie, I judge on margin of victory. If similar (within one score) I judge on whether the games were home or away. I break it down further by fewer points allowed if necessary.
Within these I ranked the variables by what could impact the game the most today: Travel, yards, SOS, common opponents, school, coach.
USC was the easiest game to rank among all of these in terms of confidence. The toughest game was #22 Lousiana Tech vs Texas Tech.
In ranking via confidence I took the mean score of the variables per team. Coach is 6, school 5, up to travel (1). Lower score is best. I further ranked the games by the general number of categories won vs the other. A 5-0 matchup is easier to call than a 3-3 matchup
I hope to have a healthier laptop by this time next week and a return to podcasting. I probably won’t be doing the NFL selections but I have a fantasy football update to sneak in here: I made the playoffs!! Mike Evans puts up 157 reception yards, exceeding the projected number of points. I’m still on the underdog side tho. Still kicking self for not upgrading the RB situation, so I have the Bernard/Hill committee to rely on. http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/647484/7