2015 College football bowl analysis

Going sans podcast this week as i spilled something on the keyboard.Sounds almost cliched, as if it is a sign of aging computer geek, or something. Where have i read of it before? While you muse on that answer, here’s what I’ve lost for a while: down arrow, occasional right arrow, touchpad stability. It’s enough to drive one batty. I’ll need to get one of them cans of air, short of taking ye olde laptop (a gift from my cousin when my 8 year old PC died last year) in for some cleaning and keycap repairs (missing the A, D and right shift keys). Somehow, this laptop still works. While attempting to solve this issue, I had lost the original draft of my notes to go along with each bowl game, just to add color and panache for sake of the Clammrs (those soundbites you hear me use at clammr.com/app/idealisticstats).
Never mind my woes, for herein I do go old school with using the blog as the focus. I do have my bowl projections, just in time for the first games to commence. Attached is a spreadsheet outlining just about all the bowl games, with these variables at stake:

https://idealisticstats.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/2015-bowl-analysis.xls

 
Coach: w/l record of the team’s current coach in bowl games
School: Ditto for the lifetime record of the school in bowls
SOS: Strength of schedule team-for-team (changing from conference strength which I used last year)
TRAVEL: Which team is closer to the neutral field (Y), which team has a virtual home field or is much closer via metro or state locale (H). If both have a ways to travel, I ignore.
YARDS: Average yards per pass attempt of starting QB for the game.
Common opponents: Better W/L record wins out. If both tie, I judge on margin of victory. If similar (within one score) I judge on whether the games were home or away. I break it down further by fewer points allowed if necessary.
Within these I ranked the variables by what could impact the game the most today: Travel, yards, SOS, common opponents, school, coach.
USC was the easiest game to rank among all of these in terms of confidence. The toughest game was #22 Lousiana Tech vs Texas Tech.
In ranking via confidence I took the mean score of the variables per team. Coach is 6, school 5, up to travel (1). Lower score is best. I further ranked the games by the general number of categories won vs the other. A 5-0 matchup is easier to call than a 3-3 matchup

I hope to have a healthier laptop by this time next week and a return to podcasting. I probably won’t be doing the NFL selections but I have a fantasy football update to sneak in here: I made the playoffs!! Mike Evans puts up 157 reception yards, exceeding the projected number of points. I’m still on the underdog side tho. Still kicking self for not upgrading the RB situation, so I have the Bernard/Hill committee to rely on. http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/647484/7

Enlightened Trails update (Remington Park) 12/13/15

Final Enlightened Trails for the 2YO 2015 crop comes up on Sunday, 12/13. The Trails are both in Oklahoma City and Remington Park. Looks like an off-track condition will be in play. All points awarded are in the Minor division,
First of the two races is the 100k ungraded Trapeze Stakes for 2YO fillies, going 1 mile. Top 3:
Texas Gem won her lifetime start vs 55k maidens here 6 weeks ago, 6 furlongs, also sloppy track. Layoff should not be a concern as she has had 4 works here, one of them 4th of 14 going 5 muddy furlongs. Showed one of the better turn times last out of the field. 88 speed figure is fastest of the field for track as well as off-track scores. Must-bet if she is near her 5-1 morning line odds.
Another Bond Girl has 7 starts, 5 since summer layoff here. 2 races removed from peak speed figure off 77, bounced to 68 first time at a mile, sloppy at that. I’m banking on the bounceback, as I often like to do in this scenario.
My Master Plan undefeated in 3, each 6-6.5 furlongs here, off for about 6 weeks, has had 3 works here, one quite fast. Already winner while gaining in class.
Suggested odds: Hailstorm Slew 9-1 (overlay), Family Tree 29-1, Texas Gem 8-5 (overlay), Dorodansa 14-1 (overlay), Go No Go 14-1, My Master Plan 5-1, Another Bond Girl 4-1 (overlay)
Then for the colts, there’s the Springboard Mile,$250k,one mile,also the same ET points in the Minor division.
Evan Deadly Sin after finisihing 8th of 12 in a 100k statebred stakes event, went on layoff, put in 6 works, all at RP in training for this, stretching from 6f here. Turn time gain between last 2 starts already best of the field….1.6 seconds. Amidst all this he’s the lone pure sprinter of the field
Esposito won in 2nd lifetime race vs 56k maidens and is fastest horse as measured by his pace style. Proven to win while stretching out, leads all with turn time of 24 seconds last out.
Discreetness with alternating wins in 4 races was 6th in the Arl/Wash Futurity, 4th in the Street Sense. Pattern of Brisnets for his upside puts him potentially in the mid 80s.
Suggested odds: Blue Wings 29-1; Cash Bonus 29-1; Uncle Brennie & Sudden Breaking News 14-1; Discreetness 4-1; Esposito 3-1; Evan Deadly Sin 2-1.

NFLweek 14 mean/binomial trend predictions

As posted since week 4, I look at most of the Sunday matchups and compare who is up and down on either side of the ball per quarter.  Whereever I see a discrepancy, I’ll unveil it here

WAS/CHI: Redskins….big D battle much of the game, WAS finally breaks free on offense in 4Q
GB/DAL: GB by a score….they score in 3Q….no other advantage
ATL/CAR: CAR to win again. Both sides trade furious blows in 2nd half, but CAR D 2Q is the small difference
TEN/NYJ : Too close to call.. Both sides light up scoreboard in 2Q and 4Q.
SD/KC: SD by a score: They will have momentum throughout, scoring first 3 Q, tho Jets might have comeback via D in 4Q
PITT/CIN: CIN: edge in defense 1Q, then offense 2Q. No gain for PITT at all.
SF/CLE: All Niners; they sport the edge 2Q D, 3Q offense.
BUF/PHI: Too close; both sides look good on offense 2Q and 4Q
DET/STL: STL for win. Establishing momentum on both sides of bll in 2Q, then DET scores well in 3rd, STL seals on D in 4th
IND/JACK: Jacksonville with the edge on D in 2Q, IND likewise on D 3Q, Jacksonville breaks through on offense in 4th.
NO/TAM: High scoring game..both sides trade blows in 3rd but NO offense keeps momentum in 4th with ball.

Idealistic Stats podcasts 12/13/15

29th edition of the weekly Idealistic Stats podcast is now available.

RSS: http://idealisticstats.podomatic.com/rss2.xml (available at iTunes and
via http://www.idealisticstats.podomatic.com )

Also accessible permanently at the Internet Archive: https://archive.org/details/Idealisticstats121315New

mp3: https://idealisticstats.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/idealisticstats121315-new.mp3
Main website: idealisticstats.wordpress.com

Listen to exclusive soundbites of my analysis at Clammr:
http://www.clammr.com/app/idealisticstats
(no Clammr’s this week but please check out earlier ones)

This week’s podcast includes the following:

Fantasy football thoughts re my team toward Week 14
NFL binomial trends & predictions for week 14
Baseball hall of fame selections revisited
Enlightened Trails update (Remington Park)
Music used in this program:
Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride The Sky CD http://www.anniewenz.com
DJ Flowerdove “Distant Project Gate (Remix)” “Shimmer” & “Sol Aurora”

http://www.soundcloud.com/djflowerdove

New selection of music to debut on the next podcast. Please inquire to suggest artists.
Thanks for listening!

Dan Herman
idealisticstats.wordpress.com
dan@radiocrystalblue.net
Twitter: @idealisticstats
Clammr: http://www.clammr.com/app/idealisticstats

Summary of NFL week 13 binomial predictions

CIN/CLE: Cincinnati in a low scoring game. They will dominate Q1. Cleveland might score with the ball in Q3
SEA/MIN: Seahawks and the over. They will score in 3Q; both sides score in bunches in 4Q
ATL/TB. Pick ’em. TB scores first in 1Q, likely via d. ATL leads with their defense in next quarters TB scores on offense in 4th. Back-forth game
NY/NY: Jets in defensive battle. Scoreless 1Q, then Jets D will build momentum in Q2, Q3.
JACK/TENN Jaguars to win, striking first on D in Q1. Tennessee comes back on D in 2Q. Jacksonville finds edge on D again in 4th
SF/CHI: All Bears: Defense strong in first half, offense picking up momentum in 3Q.
BAL/MIA: High scoring game winner for BAL, with strong D first half. Dolphins cut into lead in 3Q and lose in 4Q shootout.
HOU/BUF: All Texans, scoring on offense 1Q and 3Q, maybe also on defense in 2nd.
CAR/NO: Panthers dominate 1Q. Saints might strike back on D in 2nd but CAR keeps pressure via D in 3rd. Both sides shut out 4th.

I plan to have the late Sunday games and MNF game prediction here and on Twitter (Clammr feed is currently giving me errors)

Idealistic Stats week of 11/29/15 podcast

28th edition of the weekly Idealistic Stats podcast is now available.
RSS: http://idealisticstats.podomatic.com/rss2.xml (available at iTunes and
Also accessible permanently at the Internet Archive:
Main website: idealisticstats.wordpress.com
Listen to exclusive soundbites of my analysis at Clammr:
http://www.clammr.com/app/idealisticstats
(no Clammr’s this week but please check out earlier ones)
This week’s podcast includes the following:
Fantasy football thoughts re my team toward Week 13
NFL binomial trends & predictions for week 13
Baseball hall of fame selections
Music used in this program:
Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride The Sky CD http://www.anniewenz.com
DJ Flowerdove “Distant Project Gate (Remix)” & “Sol Aurora”
I’m currently seeking more music appropriate for this program. Contact me
directly to inquire.
Thanks for listening!
Dan Herman
idealisticstats.wordpress.com
dan@radiocrystalblue.net
Twitter: @idealisticstats