NFL Week 12 binomial trend prediction!

MIN/ATL. Falcons in a high scoring game, who will dominate Q1. Both sides light up 2Q scoreboard, and Vikings will do even better in Q3,but all the momentum is established early by ATL.

NO/HOU: Texans and the under.  All Texans in the 2Q.Saints only bother showing up on D late, but it’s too late.

BUF/KC: KC and the under. Chiefs score well in 1Q, both sides are scoreless in 2Q-3Q, KC may score on D in 4th

NYG/WAS: All the noise is generated in 1Q. Giants D does best in 2Q, Redskins likewise in the 4Q. Too close to call but certainly a defensive-minded game.

MIA/NYJ: Jets and the under, way under, as they strike best on defense in 1Q and 4Q. Miami has no advantage at all.

 

TB/IND:  Colts and the under, whose offense does best for the entire 1st half. Bucs might cut into lead on D in the 3Q.

SD/JACK:  Jacksonville by at least a score and strong D today. ..Their only offensive strength comes in 4Q; meanwhile their defense is strong in every other quarter. Chargers might shutout in 2Q, but offense not showing up.

TEN/OAK:  Tennessee with slight edge as their defense will be best in 1st half.

STL/CIN:   Rams and maybe the over.  Bengals should do well in 2Q. Rams sweep ahead in 3Q and keep the firepower going in 4Q.

 

Derby/Derby Sire Future Wager selections/analysis (Pool 1)

This year, the Future Wager pools have a new wrinkle; Derby Sire Future Wager, a single pool that runs this weekend, in which you must figure which sire of a current Derby hopeful will be lucky. I’ve decided to go for it and do 5 $2 win bets, ignoring the all-others and any exacta wagers. I really do like the idea; those that champion the breeding aspect and old-timers in general may well enjoy this aspect most.
I’ve decided to use the following angles to pick out the sires:
CLASS: I rank based on who had their best win; naturally the Grade 1 winners are best.
CHURCHILL DOWNS PACE: Fastest overall Brisnet score at this track.
AWD: Combined average winning distance from sire and dam-sire.
RUN-PACE: Average pace of last 3 starts using the binomial method.
PACE PROGRESS: # of horses who have started at least once before 9/1 at age 2, then raced after 9/1 with an improvement on his best pace since before 9/1.
LONG DISTANCE: Longest distance the horse has won at.
I rank the horses by how many times they appear in the top 5 here. Most appearances find their way into my top 5.
With this method, 8 horses found their way into the top 5, with 2 more that achieved more. So, onto the tiebreakers. Here were the ones I had to cut first: Curlin, Giant’s Causeway, Harlan’s Holiday, Scat Daddy, Tiznow, and War Front.
And here’s the 5 I’m going to roll with, in reverse order:
#5: KITTEN’S JOY: Top 5 in AWD Key horses: Oscar Nominated, winner last out at Churchill with 90 Brisnet, and at 8.5 furlongs in race prior; Smarty Kitten, winner at 8.5 furlongs; Camelot Kitten, likewise in his first start.
#4 BERNARDINI: Top 5 in AWD. Key horses: Greenpointcrusader, winner of the Grade 1 Champagne; Brisnet scores lifetime ranging from 86 to 97; Regalo, 2 starts in Japan, winning at 9 furlongs by a neck last time out; Rachel’s Valentina, winner of the Grade 1 Spinaway.
#3 HARD SPUN: Key horse: Young Brian, 100 Brisnet in his lone start. One Legend, wired field at 8.5 furlongs last time out. Positive pace progress from Donation, It’s All Relevant, Nana Looch, One Legend, San Dimas, Spin Cycle.
Clear 2nd choice in this field of 23 is TAPIT. Key horses: Mohaymen (Grade 2 Nashua); Synchrony, 89 Brisnet at Churchill; Tathqeef, winner of an 8.75 furlong maiden event in GB. Positive pace progress from Acoustic, Gray Sky, Hollywood Don, Rafting, Tarpon Bay Road, Tusk.
My top overall selection is UNCLE MO. Key horses: Nyquist (winner of 3 Grade 1 races, 2 of them at 8.5 furlongs), Brisnet scores from 94 to 102 lifetime; Uncle Walter, 2nd in a 75k optional claim race last time out, 89 Brisnet; Mo Tom won the 80k Street Sense at Churchill with an 89 Brisnet. Positive pace progress from Abiding Star, Forevamo, Junkers, Little Schmo, Uncle Brennie, Uncle Jerry, Uncle Jimmy, William Crofty.
*****
I’m very likely to pass up Pool 1 of the standard Kentucky Derby Wager, as I did last year. Too much of a crapshoot at this juncture to make a serious pick. The only category that I add here is dosage, comparing the typical 2015 Churchill Downs chef-de-race numbers to the 23 in this wager. http://www.chef-de-race.com provides this information. Here’s the top 5:
GREENPOINTCRUSADER won the Champagne Stakes in his 3rd start, followed up by a disappointing 7th in the BC Juvenile. Ranked 3rd overall in AWD. Positive pace progress, with scores of 92, 97, 92 above his debut of 86.
GUN RUNNER won both of his races, 1 mile at 81 Brisnet at CD, 8.5 furlongs at 85. Ranked 2nd in AWD.
NYQUIST undefeated in 5, winning the BC Juvenile, Front Runner, Del Mar Futurity and Best pal, last 3 races at 8.5 furlongs. Brisnet scores lifetime range from 94 to 102.
EXAGGERATOR won the Delta Downs Jackpot (8.5 furlongs) and Saratoga Special. Ranked 5th in AWD.Top rank in Brisnet pace; last 3 races were 103, 94, 93.
BRODY’S CAUSE gets my top choice here. Winner of the Breeders Futurity (8.5 furlongs), and 3rd in the BC Juvenile. 81 Brisnet in his maiden-breaking race. Top AWD numbers in the field.

Enlightened Trils update

Enlightened Trails return in focus this week along with the Derby and Derby sire Future Wager opportunities. Churchill Downs itself takes a turn in the spotlight as it hosts the Golden Rod for top fillies and the KY Jockey Club for top colts. Gulfstream Park West, a new track to the Enlightened Trails has the Hut Hut for colts and the Smooth Air for fillies.

For Churchill, this is the 3rd of 4 Heartland division races for colts and fillies,last ones until Keeneland in April.
We’ll start with the Golden Rod, 8.5 furlong race for 2YO fillies, a Grade 2 event, 200k at stake, along with EOT points. My top 3 are these:
Stageplay is undefeated in 2, winning against 56k maidens at nearby Keeneland in October, stretching to a mile in the 80k Rags to Riches on 11/1, and survived a bumpy start to win this. 91 Brisnet score in the latter race is the best CD performance of this field. Track bias for this distance is favoring the inside posts. Matching 91 Brisnets make her a good threat.
Susies Yankee Girl won both of her lifetime starts on this track and both with big late closing moves. First was a win v. 38k maidens, then a 75k optional claimer. Brisnet scores in the 80s not as fast as Stageplay, but reveals she cannot be used out of the top 2.
Dothraki Queen won her maiden debut, and the Grade 2 Pocahontas here in September, then was 2nd in the Alcibiad, and 3rd in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Fully recovered in pace 3 races after layoff for much of this summer. Fastest horse as measured by run style.One of several with shipping wins. Her 94 in the BC Juvenile Fillies easily could have been more had she not been bumped around at the start.
Suggested odds: Sugar Cone 8-1. Dothraki Queen 2-1. Charlotte Marie 14-1. Stageplay 6-1. Carina Mia 3-1. Susies Yankee Girl 11-1.

Next is the KY Jockey Club, 8.5 furlongs for 2YOs, a Grade 2 event, worth $200k. Here’s my top 3:
Airoforce won his maiden debut,a 120k race at Kentucky Downs on firm turf in September, 95 Brisnet. Then won the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland with 92 score,then was 2nd by a neck in the BC Juvenile Turf, another race with yielding conditions, 96. This closer is the absolute speed of the field,and proved to win once while stretching out, and adds blinkers while trying dirt for first time.
Annual Report ships from Belmont,winning the Grade 2 Futurity with 86 Brisnet, twinned with an 81 score in his maiden debut. Waiting since October to stretch from sprint. Best turn time and progress of the field.
Force It took 5 races to break maiden, as well as switch from turf to dirt and route to sprint, then backed it up with a 75k optional claimer win here on 11/1, with a dazzling 94 score. That score is best at CD of this field, along with the ‘good’ track condition, so he bears watching should there be enough precip on Saturday as forecast. Track bias likes the inner posts.
Suggested odds: Force It 7-1; Airoforce 5-2; My Majestic Flight 9-1; Gun Runner 14-1; Annual Report 4-1; Mo Tom 14-1; Derby Express 14-1

Off to GPW now, another track in the big Minors division of the Trails, and the Hut Hut, 75k ungraded race at a mile for 2YO fillies. 2 horses stand out, far among 3rd place.
Andreya’s Reward won her maiden debut at 47k, slumped to 5th in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies then won a 75k stakes event, then was last in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. Too easy for me to assume she’ll hold trend and win this time around. Her 80 Brisnet in the 75k stakes was her peak, bounced to a 74; she would seem likely to bounce back. Only filly here to win after gain in class; also owns lone shipping victory in the field.
Baby I’m Worth It is the other choice here. 4th in her debut vs 60k maidens, then a win at 50k in October, off since then. She’s made good use of the time,with 3 works at GPW, last one 3rd of 9 at 5 furlongs.
Suggested odds: Virgin Morena 14-1; Little Priscilla 7-5; Raisedtobeawarrior 14-1; Andreya’s Reward 7-2; Chief Attraction 14-1; Baby I’m Worth It 5-1
The Smooth Air is a 75k stakes event for 2YOs, also 1 mile. Top 3
Fellowship is an overwhelming first choice. Runs exclusively between here and GP. Won her maiden debut at 48k,2nd in a 75k stakesevent, then 5th, 7th, 1st and 2nd in restricted and state-bred stakes events. Peaked 2 races back with a 91 Brisnet, his first time at a route. Best track and off-track condition speed, an 89, achieved last time out. Fully recovered in pace form since his spring layoff and 5 races in. Fastest figures of the field for certain. On top of that, he’s waiting 3 weeks to stretch from a sprint distance. As for the best of the rest:
El Charro has alternating wins in 4 starts, including a 75k optional claimer win here last time out, 86 speed figure, best mile score of this field. 3 works since that race, one particularly fast. 3 of his 4 races with speed figures in the 80s.
American Phantom is the lone sprinter of the 8-horse field. Broke maiden last out in her 3rd try, 25k, first time at a route and on turf, sharp gain with 85 speed figure. Best turn time of this field alongsides.
Suggested odds: Rafting 29-1; Fellowship 8-5; El Charro 9-2; American Phantom 6-1; Sumpter 10-1; Asterisk 8-1.

Idealistic Stats show #26 (11/27/15)

26th edition of the weekly Idealistic Stats podcast is now available.

RSS: http://idealisticstats.podomatic.com/rss2.xml (available at iTunes and
via http://www.idealisticstats.podomatic.com )

Also accessible permanently at the Internet Archive:
https://archive.org/details/idealisticstats112715

mp3:

Main website: idealisticstats.wordpress.com

Listen to exclusive soundbites of my analysis at Clammr:
http://www.clammr.com/app/user/27316

This week’s podcast includes the following:

Fantasy football thoughts re my team toward Week 12
NFL binomial trends & predictions for week 10
Selections for the Derby and Derby Sire Future Wagers, pool 1
Enlightened Trails update

Music used in this program:
Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride The Sky CD http://www.anniewenz.com
DJ Flowerdove “Distant Project Gate (Remix)” & “Sol Aurora”

http://www.soundcloud.com/djflowerdove

I’m currently seeking more music appropriate for this program. Contact me
directly to inquire.

Thanks for listening!

Dan Herman
idealisticstats.wordpress.com
dan@radiocrystalblue.net
Twitter: @idealisticstats
Clammr: http://www.clammr.com/app/user/27316

Delta Downs Princess/Jackpot selections/analysis

It’s time again to get to serious racing business.  The Enlightened Trails now get interesting as we progress into the Future Wager for next week, plus this week’s major races on the trails, the Delta Downs Princess and Delta Downs Jackpot.   Both are the first of 6 races in the Southern Divison. Top 4 from this race get points.  Top 4 in points over the 6 races get into the show.
Thus far the Jackpot is the 4th such race in the overall Derby Trail to be run at 8.5 furongs. 2 horses enter with EDT points: Exaggerator, 4th in the BC Juvenile, and Sunny Ridge, winner of the Sapling, ,with 100
Here are my top 3 out of  10 entered:
Forevamo won the 200k Jean Lafit on this track 3 weeks ago, his debut at a route, breaking maiden with his 3rd of 3 lifetime races featuring a Brisnet in the 80s. 85 in that race is best of the field on this track. One of several winning from class gain and stretch in distance. Generally good work in prep on 11/14.
Memories of Winter for the upset in price: 2 wins in 2 races, maiden at the 36k level at Monmouth, then a 50k optional claimer at Laurel on 10/9, first time in a route, good for a 94 Brisnet score. Best breeding in the field (Hard Spun/Memories for Us,out of the Irish horse Street Cry). Measured as fastest based on his first call numbers.  3 works coming since since his last race.
Exaggerator won the Saratoga Special, 2nd in the Breeders Futurity, and was 4th in the BC Juvenile. Lots to like of the morning-line favorite: Best class of the field, 3 straight Brisnets in the early 90’s.   Best absolute pace based on those Brisnets.
Suggested odds: Exaggerator 3-1;Forevamo  9-2; Texas Jambalaya 9-1 (overlay); Memories of Winter and Sunny Ridge 7-1; Harlan Punch (overlay) and Found Money 8-1; Iron Dome 11-1 (overlay)
In the Delta Down Princess are 7 fillies going 1 mile, 400k at stake. This race is also the first of 6 in their South division.   Top 3:
Shesthewinner won her maiden debut, finish well back in stakes and allowance events and won out last at the 75k allowance level a month ago. Spiked up in Brisnet from 46 to 84, so we should expect a bounce.Also that race is where she dropped 6 lbs from prior race (not to mention losing blinkers), adds that back here. Best turn-time and turn-time gain of the field, tho that can be attributed to the sprint-to-route move.   Early-presser horses for the distance in the meet are winning 34% in 38 races total. 
La Appassionata winner of 2 of 2 lifetime, maiden  38k race at Churchill on 9/13, and a 100k stakes event here on 10/25. Both races earned him a 90 Brisnet, best of this field.
Angelita won her maiden debut at 15k, 2nd in the La Senorita, won a 15k allowance race, all at Retama. Best AWD numbers in the field (Harlan’s Holiday/What Happens,out of Alphabet Soup). She is the other early-presser horse who may find the pace advantageous. 
Suggested odds: Angelita 5-1 (overlay), Shesthewinner 9-5(overlay), La Appassionata 7-2; Above Fashion 9-1; Jet Black Magic and Charlie’s Pal 25-1 (overlay)

Idealistic Stats podcast #25 (11/21/15)

25th edition of the weekly Idealistic Stats podcast is now available.
RSS: http://idealisticstats.podomatic.com/rss2.xml (available at iTunes and
Also accessible permanently at the Internet Archive:
Main website: idealisticstats.wordpress.com
Listen to exclusive soundbites of my analysis at Clammr:
This week’s podcast includes the following:
Fantasy football thoughts re my team toward Week 11
NFL binomial trends & predictions for week 10
MLB classic game database update (2004-2009)
Enlightened Trails update
Music used in this program:
Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride The Sky CD http://www.anniewenz.com
DJ Flowerdove “Distant Project Gate (Remix)” & “Sol Aurora”
I’m currently seeking more music appropriate for this program. Contact me
directly to inquire.
Thanks for listening!
Dan Herman
idealisticstats.wordpress.com
dan@radiocrystalblue.net
Twitter: @idealisticstats

NFL binomial predictions (early Sunday), week 10

DET/GB. Very low scoring game. Giving itto GB, who are actually best on D in 2q and 3Q. No advantge either side on offense.
CLE/PIT   I have Pitt narrowly..high scoring game. Pitt is great on offense 1st half, CLE best 2Q-3Q, Pit again in 4th.

PHI/MIA   All Philly, in a rout, as they dominate in 2Q. Offense picks up slack in 2nd half.

CHi/STL. STL in a thriller, low scoring game. I see CHI only managing advantage on D in 3Q, Rams will dominate in the 4th..

CAR/TEN. I have TEN winning this one. Both sides will score a lot in 1Q and also pitch shutouts in the 3Q. But TEN actually has offensive edge in 4Q.

NO/WAS     NO in a close one…their offense is great in 1st half. WAS will come back and dominate 3Q, NO D shines best in 4th.

DAL/TB All Dallas. Their offense strikes first in the 1Q, Both Ds will record shutouts In 2Q. Dal resumes momentum on D in 3rd, then with the ball in 4th.

JAC/BAL Low scoring game, too close to call
Jacksonville to score on offense 1Q, then Baltimore likewise in 2nd, then both sides go scoreless in 3rd.