Breeders Cup 2015 (Friday) selections/analysis

The big weekend, Breeders Cup Weekend, has arrived at least. In this post I’ll give you analysis and selections of my top 3 choices for the 4 Friday races, plus suggested odds. On my Clammr feed you’ll hear my top choice and suggested odds for my picks among each field.
BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE TURF is a mile race for 2YO colts/geldings, Grade 1, $2000K.  15 in the field, Shiek of Shieks the one also-eligible to drop in in the event of a scratch.   Here’s my top 3:
Hollywood Don shines with pace form here. 3 races on the Del Mar turf course, breaking maiden, then peaking to 94 in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, then stretch to 8.5 furlongs while switching to dirt in the Grade 1 Front Runner..finished 3rd there. Back to a mile and turf here, 2 wins at the distance with the 94 Brisnet score, bounced to an 88 in the Front Runner. I’m playing the bounceback angle here at good price.
Airoforce won both lifetime starts, 6 furlongs here at nearby Kentucky Downs and 8.5 furlongs here at Keeneland, that on yielding turf. Track and turf speed of 92 in the Grade 3 Bourbon last time out is the best of this field.Paired with his debut of 95 Brisnet he’s easily the speed of the field.
Conquest Daddyo won the Summer Stakes with a 94 Brisnet at Woodbine, good for 250 points in the East Coast division. Prior to that, he was 2nd in the restricted Vandal Stakes, and a 56k maiden win, both at Woodbine also.   The 94 Brisnet is the best for the distance of the field. On 7 week layoff and having won his debut, he is very capable of winning today. Very good worktab, with 3 works at Keeneland during layoff.
Suggested odds: Shogun 29-1; Sky Marshal 29-1; Conquest Daddyo 4-1 (overlay); Hollywood Don 9-1; Airoforce 7-1; Manhattan Dan 10-1 (overlay); Azar 10-1; Highland Sky 8-1 (overlay); Ray’s The Bar 10-1 (overlay); Hit It A Bomb 8-1.
Lots of value in this race where the morning line fave Cymric is 7/2 and nowhere in my plans. Airoforce should do well among the low-price choices. A number of directions to go in between the overlays.

LAS VEGAS BREEDERS CUP DIRT MILE is for 3YO+s, Grade 1, 1000k.
Liam’s Map deserves the top slot here. 1/1 morning line pick has 5 wins and 2 2nd lifetime. Wins include the Woodward and Harlan’s Holiday.  3 wins in 3 route starts, peaking at 105 in the Harlan’s Holiday, best of this field.Only horse to recently forge and set a new small top, referring to his 109 in the Whitney. Prior winner while cutting back in distance, as well as with weight gain . You have to love a horse with 5 straight triple-digit Brisnets. Even with slight drop to 106 in the Woodward, he gained in turn time from 25:2 to 23:4.
Lea won the HalHope twice and the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream. Best pedigree of the field (First Samurai/Greenery, out of Irish horse Galileo). Prior winner off layoff. Ony horse in field to win at similar stage of Keeneland of this field.  Also has prior wins from gain in weight.   Gained 2 full seconds in turn time from last race.
Bradester mainly races in Monmouth.Winner of the Ack Ack, the Salvatore Mile and the Monmouth Cup.Prior wins off layoff, Best works of the field;5 of them during layoff, 3 bullet works, 2 at Keeneland

Suggested odds: Red Vine 11-1; Bradester 8-1; Lea 4-1 (overlay); Street Strategy 22-1 (overlay);  Liam’s Map 2-1; Valid 7-1; War Story 18-1 (overlay); Mr. Z 14-1 (overlay)
Another race with overlay but I actually like the big fave on top. Still enough value underneath to play with other pools in.
Next is the JUVENILE FILLIES TURF, one mile for top 2YO fillies,Grade 1, 1000K.
Ruby Notion 3 wins in 4 races, the only blemish a 5th place finish in her lone race overseas and her turf debut. Won the Colleen and Selima Stakes. Forged sharp lifetime best of 94 last time out, but high risk of bounce. Only filly here to win while gain in class. Has prior win with stretch out (today from 5.5 furlongs). Brings back Rafael Herndandez, who has been aboard 2 of her 3 wins.   Loses blinkers for this race.  Waiting the longest to stretch out. Fine work tab: 3 works at Keeneland, 2 very fast, 1 bullet.
Harmonize is the lukewarm 7-2 morning line choice.  2 wins and 1 second lifetime; won the Jessamen (Grade 3) right here and PG Johnson. Both races gave him paired up Brisnets in the 90s. 90 is best at Keeneland of this field.  Best speed of the field as measured by overall Brisnet scores. Only early-presser horse of the field.
Catch A Glimpse 2 wins in 3 lifetime including the Grade 2 Natalma last time out, with a dazzling 98 Brisnet, and 250 EDT points for that effort.  The 98 is best of the distance and surface in the field.  4 works during layoff, 3 of them here, 2 of the early works very fast.  Real risk of bounce as the par speed figure for the distance is 95. I usually go the other way if a horse spikes beyond this
Suggested odds:Ruby Notion 4-5 (overlay); Alice Springs 29-1; Sapphire Kitten 29-1; Catch A Glimpse 7-1; Harmonize 3-1    I love seeing Ruby Notion in this spot for the win; enough value to go around using the weak favorite
EOT impact: Nemoralia enters with 100 points out of the East Coast division.
LONGINES BC DISTAFF is for top 3YO+ fillies/mares going 9 furlongs, 2000k. Top 3:
Wedding Toast has had a dazzling career, winning the Comely, the Miami Shores,the Ruffian, the Ogden Phipps and the Beldame.  8 wins in 12 starts, just one out of the money. With a 97 in the Madison, then up to 103 in the Ruffian, 104 in the OPhillps then down to 99 in the Beldame, I’d believe shed rise again for this race.  Fastest of the field as measured by overall Brisnets, not to mention the low variance of scores. Nice turn time as well, 24 seconds.
I’m A Chatterbox won the Silverbulletday,, the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Rachel Alexandra, the Cotillion, and the Coaching Club American Oaks.  2 races removed from her lifetime best of 99. Prior win while stretching out, along with prior shipping wins and her maiden win over this track last year.
Gained 1/5 turn time between last 2 races while losing 2 points in Brisnet.
Peace And War draws into the field as also-eligible and I’m hoping she will, as she does have good stats. With trainer Graham Motion, she’s become a different filly than before with Brisnets in the 90s.  Also has shipping wins, won the Alcibiad here a year ago too. 3rd in the Cotillion, and gained slightly at 2nd call than prior race…so she may be in great form here.
Should Peace and War not draw in, I have Stellar Wind for 3rd. 5 wins in 7 races, include the Torrey Pines, the Summer Oaks, the Santa Ysabel and the Santa Anita Oaks.  2 straight wins off layoff, and prior stretch-out win. Waiting since August 30 to stretch out.  Only concern is that the Espinoza/Sadler connection hasn’t run during this meet yet.
Suggested odds: Got Lucky 29-1, Frivolous 29-1,Untapable 14-1, Stopchargingmaria 6-1, Yahilwa 4-1 (overlay); Wedding Toast 3-1; I’m A Chatterbox 11-1; Stellar Wind 11-1; Peace And War 11-1 (overlay).
Another excellent race. My top pick actually morning-line favorite at 4-1, so value might be a premium.
That’s enough for now.  Tomorrow I’m recording the latest IS podcast and will present thoughts on all 13 races.

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