Beginning the Saturday action is the BC Juvenile Fillies, a race on my Enlightened Derby Trail. The top 4 earn extra points in the Trail’s Heartland Division. Top 3:
Rachel’s Valentina comes in with excellent breeding (Bernardini/Rachel Alexandra, by Medaglia D’Oro) 2 wins in 2 races at Saratoga, one of which was the Spinaway. Layoff since that race should help immensely. Prior stretch-out win, and good works entering, 4 in all, 3 at Keeneland, 2 of those 3 very fast. Slight concern of a bounce as she increase from 87 to 94.
Nickname won an 83k maiden race 2nd time in class,then won the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont last time out 4 weeks ago. Paired up Brisnet speed figures in the 80, measured as fastest of the field by pace.Proven winner while stretching out, good work tab and prior shipping win. As with Rachel’s Valentina, she was faster at the 2nd call.
Dothraki Queen has 2 wins (maiden, Alcibiad) and a 2nd (Pocahontas). Best track performance of this field,an 83. Turn time between those races was 24 seconds, impressive to contend, along with his drop in speed figure.
Suggested odds: Rachel’s Valentina 6-5; Tap To It 29-1;Songbird 6-1; Dothraki Queen 5-1 (overlay) Nickname 10-1 Not much value here, tho I don’t like favorite Songbird to factor.
Next is the 1000k Turf Sprint 5.5 furlongs for 3YO+. My top 3
Marchman is fresh off 2 month layoff and reclaim by Bret Calhoun. Won the Turf Sprint at Churchill in May of 2014 and the Shakertown a month prior. Best track/surface/distance performance of the field coming from that race, 103 Brisnet. Robby Albarado was aboard for both those wins and he comes back to align again. Very capable of winning after coming out from route distance and having once exceed track par speed.
Jimmy Bouncer is a CA bred has 4 wins in 6. Impresses with :22 turn time, reclaimed by Doug O’Neill to start off the year.
Stacked Deck probably has had the toughest trip among non-winners coming in, a 99 Brisnet score and 3rd place in the Woodford here on 10/3. That score represents a small new recent top, only horse in the field to do so..nice advantage there.
Suggested odds: The Great War 29-1; Stacked Deck 7-2 (overlay); Marchman 6-5 (overlay); Jimmy Bouncer 3-1 (overlay)
The FILLY/MARE SPRINT is for 3YOs+,going 7 furlongs, 1000k.
Taris with strong AWD numbers (Flatter/Comedy out of Irish horse Theatrical; Best distance/track numbers of this field,winning the Raven Run here last with a sparkling 115, a 9-length win. Fastest of field as measured by pace. Prior stretchout win, nice works coming in (2 at Santa Anita, both fast, one a bullet.); Stevens/Callaghan combo haven’t appeared yet during the meet. Impressed me at first call with 103 Brisnet, much better than 88 Brisnet before this along with layoff.One of two who increased turn time while lowering speed figure.
The other horse in that category is my 2nd choice Super Majesty. 4-3-1-0 record,winner of the Dogwood last time out in September at Churchill. Bounced to a 94 in that race. 5 works since then, 4 of 5 at Keeneland all fast, 1 with bullet. Solis/Hollendorfer no experience this meet. Gained full second of turn time in the Dogwood.
Stonetastic won the Grade 2 Prioress last year. Comes out of a 40k allowance race winning by 15 at 6.5 furlongs 2 months ago at Parx,109 Brisnet. Only horse in field to recently make small new lifetime top compared to 2014 races. Prior win while going up in class, and her 2 month wait to stretch is longest of field Question mark about the 109 and if she will bounce from that.
Suggested odds: Taris 5-2 (overlay); Wavell Avenue 9-1; Stonetastic 3-1; Dame Dorothy 14-1; La Verdad 14-1; Super Majesty 7-1; Room For Me 12-1
Another great race I’m totally ignoring the favorite (Cavorting) in.
FILLY/MARE TURF is 8.5 furlongs, 3YO+,2000k. Top 3:
Secret Gesture makes 3rd US start Prior races were across Western Europe at top level.Stateside she has won the Grade 1 Beverly D and last year’s version of this race at Santa Anita. Prior winner straight off layoff, I rate her fastest of these based on available pace numbers (Brisnet doesn’t have pace parameters for horses racing outside North America, a shame)
Elektrum is one of the also-eligibles.Winner of the JC Mabee in August and a stakes race in France last year. One of two horses who recently forged a lifetime best mark. That was 2 races ago in the Mabee, a 98. After bouncing to 88 in the Rodeo Drive, I feel she can bounce back here well into the 90s.Best turn time gain and adjustment compared to Brisnet of this field.
Dacita is 10-7-1-1, and won her US debut at Saratoga last time out in the Ballston Spa,a 91 Brisnet score. Prior races were at Santiago in Chile. Also has prior wins from layoff. Best work tab of this field; 7 works in all, most of them on Belmont turf. Best turn time also at 23 seconds
If Elektrum does not make it to the show,I’ll add Legatissimo.She is 10-5-3-0 lifetime, and makes her US debut; all prior races in GB and Ireland at top level. Loses 6 lbs to 120, she has won in a prior adjustment. Brings back Ryan Moore as jockey, who won with this horse earlier in the year. Also owns shipping wins, and is a first time Lasix user for this race.
Suggested odds: Bawina 44-1; Sentiero Italia 7-1 (overlay); Talmada 44-1; Stephanie’s Kitten 3-1 (overlay); Elektrum 9-1 (overlay); Secret Gesture 3-1 (overlay); Legatissimo 8-1; Dacita 8-1
UPDATE: With the scratch of Elektrum, my top 3 are now Secret Gesture, Dacita, Legatissimo
BC SPRINT is 1500k race, 6 furlongs for 3YOs + Top 3:
Kobe’s Back made 1 start here,winning the Grade 3 Commonwealth in April. I like the alternating pattern of Brisnet scores here and slight gain on leader last time out. 22 second turn time is best of the field.
Salutos Amigos is 32-10-3-4, a sharp 114 lifetime best at the distance. Jose Ortiz won with him prior and is back aboard, tho nor he or trainer David Jacobsen have any record this meet. Ran 2nd with a 104 Brisnet last timeout in the Vosburgh Invitational, overcoming a squeezed start.
Wild Dude I only really like for his great turn time and gain (22 seconds, up 2/5) between last 2 races.
Suggested odds: Private Zone 2-1; Wild Dude 7-1; Big Macher 13-1 (overlay); Stallwalkin’ Dude 13-1; Salutos Amigos 17-1; Kobe’s Back 5-1 (overlay); Runhappy 19-1; Masochistic 19-1.
BC MILE is for top 3YOs+, 2000k, Grade 1.
Mondialiste raced across Europe before making his American debut in September, winning the Woodbine Mile. earning a 97 Brisnet. Best breeding of the field (Galileo/Occupandise, 2 Irish horses, by Kaldoun,based in France). Prior win first off layoff. Track bias may be in favor. In 11 raceis70is70s, deep closer have won 3, and 11% wins are coming from posts 4 through 7. 23.3 turn time matches best of the field.
Mshawish has best works of the field, 3 here, 3 at the Spa, all very fast. Wide trip running 5th in the Fourstardave last time out, but posted a 99, so maybe has a better trip here.
Impassable makes his US debut after 7 races in France, with 4 wins, the last 2 at Grade 2. Lowest weight of the field at 120, and first time Lasix. Maxime Guyon returns to ride; owns prior win in the Prix de Sandringham.
Mondialiste 5-2 (overlay); Mshawish 4-1 (overlay); Karakontie 7-1 (overlay); Grand Arch 4-1 (overlay) Impassable 4-1 (overlay)
Breeders Cup Juvenile is for top 2YOs going 8.5 furlongs, Grade 1, $2000k.
Nyquist undefeated in 4 races, winning at the distance last time in the Grade 1 Front Runner. Fastest horse as measured by overall Brisnet speed, and good close pattern of scores as well. Each of his Graded victories, this plus the Del Mar Futurity and the Best Pal, saw Swipe finishing 2nd.
Greenpointcrusader won an 83k maiden race at Saratoga, then took the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont on 10/3, 97 Brisnet. May benefit from track bias: Deep closers at this distance have won 11 of the 36 races here, 31%. 7 races have been won from the first three posts.
Cocked and Loaded is my overlay pick. Winner of the Iroquois at Churchill at this distance, as well as the Tremont at Belmont. 1 prior win first off layoff. 4 works since the Iroquois, 2 of them very fast, 1 a bullet.
Suggested odds: Waterloo Bridge 11-1 (overlay); Unbridled Outlaw 7-1 (overlay); Nyquist 6-1; Brody’s Cause 14-1; Cocked & Loaded 6-1 (overlay); Greenpointcrusader 6-1; Isotherm 10-1 (overlay); Ralis 11-1.
BC TURF is run at the classic 12-furlong distance. 3000k for 3YO+
Cape Fighter recently posted small new lifetime best of 100, nearly wiring the Knickerbocker Stakes field at Belmont 3 weeks ago. Only early-presser pacer in the field, so he’ll have command of the backstretch. Turn time of 23.4 is best of the field, along with the 1.6 second gain from previous race. Hasn’t been out of the top 4 in some time. He should not be 34-1 like last time.
Big John B has won 14 out of 34 lifetime including 3 straight. Prior winner first off layoff. Also has won with a similar noticeable weight gain, and is waiting the longest among those stretching out.
Ordak Dan, another longshot I like here, makes his US debut after years of racing in his native Argentina vs top competition. I’m mainly sold on his workouts. Off since May, he’s got 5 in all, 3 here, one a bullet. Also is a first-time gelding.
Suggested odds: Found 44-1; Slumber 44-1; Twilight Eclipse 17-1; Big Blue Kitten 17-1; Red Rifle 9-1; Cage Fighter 5-2 (overlay); Big John B 3-1 (overlay); Da Big Hoss 44-1; The Pizza Man 44-1; Ordak Dan 5-1 (overlay)
BC CLASSIC won’t have Beholder or Smooth Roller but it will have 8 other challengers, including American Pharoah, in the Triple Crown winner’s final race. 5000k at stake for this 10 furlong race of champions.
Keen Ice won the Travers after having mixed results in Graded stakes going back to a year ago. He’s the lone early closer, so watch him at the far turn and early stretch. Tripled up in Brisnet scores last 3 races…have to wonder if he’s subject to bounce here. Also, best turn time of 23.2 and gain (1.2 seconds) from prior race
American Pharoah truly has nothing left to prove. Finished 2nd to Keen Ice in the Travers, and I see that result here again. Only horse in field to win first after layoff; fastest of these as measured by his early-pressure pace. Best works coming in; all 6 of them at Santa Anita, 4 very fast, 1 a bullet .
Honor Code always a threat: 10-6-2-1 record, with wins in the Whitney, the Metropolitan and the Gulfstream Park Handicap. Ran 101 in the Kelso a month ago with a lot of trouble, both at the gate and running 5 wide. His performance in the Kelso is better at 2nd call as compared to prior, a good sign for horse 1 race after layoff. Also is one of two who had recently bounced.
Suggested odds: Gleneagles 44-1;Honor Code 9-1Tonalist 8-1; Effinex 22-1; Hard Aces 22-1 (overlay); American Pharoah 12-1; Keen Ice 3-1 (overlay); Frosted 9-1.