And away we go….. 5 races on a Super Saturday for the Enlightened Trails. Here they are in order of post time:
Woodbine: Natalma Stakes, 1 mile on the turf for 2YO fillies; this Grade 2 event pays out $200k, and offers 250-100-50-25 for the top 4 finishers in my EOT (Enlightened Oaks Trail) system. It’s the 2nd such race in my East Coast division.
My top 3 are these: 1-10-4
Caren is undefeated in 3, winning stakes of 100 and 125k here, each against restricted and statebred. Each race earned him Brisnet between 85 and 89 figures. First time on the grass. Some risk of bounce with regard to her big stakes winning efforts, but she has best works of the field, 4 in all right here, 2 of them very fast. Can she improve further at a route? My instinct says yes.
Miss Metropolitan won her maiden debut,then faltered to 7th in a 150k event,then 3rd first time on turf in a 74.5k allowance race. Nice pattern of Brisnet ratings, 75 to 81 in all 3 of her races. Only early-presser pace type in the field, so should contend sometime along the backstretch. Longshot and worth the price.
Gamble’s Ghost won her maiden debut with an 87 Brisnet and by 8.25 lengths. Gained 1.5 lengths vs leader, and showed turn-time of 22:4, best of this field.
Suggested odds: Know Clouds 29-1; Paddy Point 29-1; Catch A Glimpse 7-1; Caren 3-2;Miss Metropolitan 4-1 (overlay); Pulled The Goalie 16-1; Gamble’s Ghost 7-1.
Good wagering race as I can eliminate the favorite out of the first 2 spots.
Next is the Happy Ticket at Louisiana Downs, a 75k event for 2YO fillies, going a mile on the turf. My top 3: 3-12-4
Jazz Song has 2 3rds and 2 wins, breaking maiden in her 3rd start,which was her first on turf and a stretch to 7.5 furlongs. Back on dirt last time and shortening to 7, she won fairly easily in a 21k allowance race. Those last 2 races represented Brisnet scores of 75 and 78. Best speed figures for the distance and the surface. Track bias is favoring early-pressers in turf routes at a rate of 38% wins, plus 14% in posts 1-3. With the increase in class and distance,plus the prior shipping win, and a return to turf, she’s worth the 5-1 morning line choice.
Saritta has one start, winning her maiden debut in July at Lone Star Park by 1.5 lengths and a 79 Brisnet, a score that’s best of the field. Has a number of workouts in prep, all very fast.
Flashy Appeal won the EvangelineDowns Starlet by 7 lengths with a 70 Brisnet last time out,first race other than maiden class. Pattern of Brisnets are 62-70.
Suggested odds: Theron 16-1(overlay); Jazz Song 2-1; Flashy Appeal 4-1; Dreamofhonor 11-1 (overlay); Saritta 4-1 (overlay); Sombree 8-1.
Very tasty wagering race here also; no faves in my top 3. As it turns out, Sombree is the morning-line fave at a weak 4-1.
After this is the Sunday Silence Stakes at LaD, 75k ungraded event for top 2YOs, going 1 mile on the turf. My choices here are 1-10-9.
Kid Creole broke maiden status in his 3rd try vs statebreds, peaking at 78 speed rating, that effort on turf. Faltered to 56 in the Evangeline Downs Starlet, returning to dirt. Best speed figures for distance and surface. I am willing to play the bounceback angle here. He’s measured as top speed here based on pace.
Masterly has 1 win in 2 starts, graduating from maiden status last time out with a nice 79 Brisnet score, first time on a fast track,5.5 furlongs. Yes he could bounce from that,but I like his turn time most among other variables. Can’t see him bouncing here.
Better Than Magic was 3rd last time out in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile, impressed with a 73 Brisnet…this above his maiden win of 62 Brisnet, which was his only race on turf. Possible bounce risk here. No Bute for this race; switch back to turf, where he’d won before, should be a positive. 3 works at Remington in prep.
Suggested odds: Hunsa’s Magic 29-1;Mimosa Morning 29-1; Kid Creole 2-1 (overlay); Masterly 3-1 (overlay); Aztec Lion 5-1 (overlay) Better Than Magic 5-1.
Another great race that promises a lot of value.
Next is the Summer Stakes at Woodbine, Grade 2 event for 2YOs, 1 mile on the turf. My top 3 are 4-1-3
First time starter Conquest Enforcer a deserving morning-line pick. I’m banking on the strength of his works; 6 of them here, 2 of them very fast, mainly at 5 furlongs.
Sky Marshal has 2 good runs on this turf course, with a 92 last time out in a 74.5k allowance. It was his first time with blinkers. That speed figure is best on this track of this field. With a win increasing in class and in distance, plus a sharp work since last, he must be considered at a price.
Manhattan Dan (love the name) is a turf specialist with scores of 27, 81 and 95 running at the NY tracks. Best turf speed of the field, best pace of the field overall. Turn time last time out was 22:4.
Suggested odds: Hollywood Hideaway 11-1; Hammers Vision 29-1; Sky Marshal 9-2; Manhattan Dan 2-1 (overlay); The Zip Zip Man 6-1; Dragon Bay 19-1; Gigantic Breeze 10-1; Conquest Enforcer 8-1 (overlay).
Decent value here but favorite in my top slot.
Finally there is the Shakopee Juvenile at Canterbury Park, a 75k race,6 furlongs,for top 2YOs. My top 3 are 4-9-7
The highly regarded Stormation is my top choice. 3 wins in 3 races, 2 here, one at Prairie Meadows, Brisnet scores from 81 to 86. Wire to wire victories in all 3 as well. He’s the absolute speed here. Track bias is favoring sprinters in posts 4 through 7 in 6 furlong dirt races. Gained 4/5 of a second of turn time in last race despite a lower speed figure. I cannot see anyone defeating him..so here’s the best of the rest:
Bushrod has one start, a win in his maiden debut here on 6/7, 62 Brisnet. Lots of works since the layoff, all at Canterbury, some of them rather fast.
Native Princess was 2nd in the Sorority at Prairie Meadows, prior to that a 3rd in the Prairie Gold Lassie. Brisnets range from 72 to 78. Best Brisnet speed figures for the distance.
Suggested odds: Cable Jet 29-1; Bushrod 3-1; Native Princess 8-1 (overlay); Amariah Grace 14-1; Rocket Joe Copper 24-1, Cashel Rock 24-1; Stormation 1-1.
Probably a race to pass up.