Enlightened Trails stakes analysis (Parx, Emerald, Albuquerque)

I intended to publish this on Friday but consistent tech issues prevented such.  My apologies.

This week, 3 races in the Enlightened Trails cover, each in the Minor divisions, each on the Derby Trail side of things.
Albuquerque Downs features the 60k Manzano Stakes for 2YOs, going 6 furlongs. Points for the top 4 are 100-50-25-10.   2 horses that finished 1-2 in an earlier EDT race, the minor-level Winnipeg Futurity, Heber (100 points) and Coolidge (50 points)  Here are my top 3 contenders out of the 7-horse field:
Heber who won the Winnipeg, did so with a 78 Brisnet, best for today’s distance.  I measure him as fastest on speed figure alone. He’s also the lone early-presser type, which means he’ll be fastest somewhere along the backstretch. His first race, the 25k Osiris produced a 73 Brisnet.  In the Winnipeg he picked up 1.2 seconds of turn time from the Osiris, good sign of good form.
Cattle Company with one race, his maiden debut, a winner at 4.5 furlongs on ‘good’ footing at Lone Star.  Off since then on 5/30 plus getting claimed, he’s had a bunch of works, 8 in all, 3 of them competitively fast.  With a win in his first start and his first race coming after layoff, don’t expect rust on his part.
Coolidge, shipping first time out of Assiniboia,  is 3-1-2-0, second in the Winnipeg, a pair of Brisnet in the 70s above his 2nd place maiden debut. His pace speed and form is what stands out.  I measure him as fastest by his speed at different calls (95 in his first 2 calls in the Winnipeg)

Suggested odds: Heber 8-5. Concord Fast 44-1. Cattle Company 2-1. Feed The Streak 44-1. Coolidge 4-1.   No overlays in this bunch.  Frankly, not sure you’ll find value at all in this for wagering purposes.

Now to Philly and Parx, and the Hall of Fame Stakes, 150k purse for 2YOs, going 6.5 furlongs.  7 horses in this field.  Full Salute, 2nd in the Sapling, has 50 points for the trail.  My contenders:
Get Jets won his debut vs NY-state breds at the 73k level, by 4.5 lengths, 91 Brisnet.  Best AWD numbers in the field (Scat Daddy/Sunny by Dixieland Band). He was measured at 94 for the last call, easily the fastest of this field. Only deep closer of the field, who should reel in the speedsters if they tire out.  3 works since that race, all 3 very fast, one a bullet.   22.8 turn time is best of the field.

Discreet Lover has 3 races here, 4-1-1-0 overall, took 4 tries to break maiden status,did so last time in style; 8 length win at 5.5 furlongs with 89 Brisnet. Owns best track speed here, possible bounce risk after posting 3rd straight score in the 80s ahead of his debut.
Formal Summertime won 2 of his 3 starts; his middle start, the Tyro, saw him falter soon early into the 5 furlong contest, his debut on turf.  Came back to win the Laurel Futurity on a race scheduled for turf,changed to dirt.  Fastest potential here by pace, this is the lone pure speed of the field.  Only horse here to have similar win by class gain and distance, and only shipping win alongsides.
My odds:  Bird Of Trey 14-1. Get Jets 6-5. Formal Summation 8-1. Discreet Lover 3-1.  Full Salute 8-1.
No overlays in this one either.   2 favorites steal this one..

The Gottstein is the representative race on the Trail for my home track of Emerald Downs.  8.5 furlongs, 65k for 2YOs.   My top 3:
Wando Cat broke maiden in her 4th try, winning a 20k allowance race, first time on a sloppy track 4 weeks ago. Forged lifetime best in that race with 73 Brisnet. 3 of those 4 races were within similar speeds. 2 works since, 1 was 2nd of 31 horses, 46.2 for 4 furlongs. 24.4 turn time is among the best of this field.
Packy’s Out is still a maiden, burning a fair amount of money in the process. 4th in the Emerald Express on 7/19, then placed in 2 maiden races with 76 and 77 Brisnet speeds.  Had some trouble at the start of his last race, plus a wide trip. I’m willing to forgive that trip considering his 3rd place finish and the speed. Also has 24.4 turn time from last race.
Gold Rush Dancer burned his share of money too, 4-1-2-1 record, won his maiden debut, but no wins in 3 ungraded stakes at 50k, all here.  Best track peformance, with 83 Brisnet in the state-bred Captain Condo last time out.  Forging the new top as part of 3 fast races, could bounce today.  Fastest speed figures of the field, consistent figures at that.

My odds:
Packy’s Out: 6-1.  Gold Rush Dancer 2-1.  My Heart Goes On 11-1. Wando Cat 8-5. Morning-line odds are 8-1 for Wando Cat, therefore a big overlay.

Idealistic Stats 9/25/15 podcast details

17th edition of the weekly Idealistic Stats podcast is now available.
Also accessible permanently at the Internet Archive:
Main website: idealisticstats.wordpress.com
Listen to exclusive soundbites of my analysis at Clammr:
This week’s podcast includes the following:
Analysis of top stakes action at Parx, Albuquerque and Emerald Downs
Fantasy football thoughts re my team toward Week 3
Update to the MLB greatest games project, now entering its 2nd phase
Analysis of the WBC world heavyweight title fight taking place on 9/26.
Music used in this program:
DJ Flowerdove “Distant Project Gate (Remix)” & “Sol Aurora”
I’m currently seeking more music appropriate for this program. Contact me directly to inquire. .
Thanks for listening!
Dan Herman
Twitter: @idealisticstats

Analysis of top stakes races at Parx 9/19/15 (updated)

Here’s 3 stakes races at Parx, the top races of the day for Saturday, in lieu of Enlightened Trails coverage.

This posted was edited 930am PT to reflect scratches/changes announced on Saturday.

First is the Gallant Bob Stakes, 6 furlongs, G3 event for 3YOs. My top 3 here are 4-2-3

Trouble Kid 2 wins in 6,5 in the money.  Best AWD numbers from pedigree (Harlan’s Holiday/Triumphantly by Mr.Greeley).  Posted new tops each of last 3 races, peaking last time with 99 in a 25k allowance, winning by 9 in a 5.5 furlong race.  46% of sprinters at 6 furlongs during the meet are winners (plus winners at 13% in posts 1-7). Owns a shipping win; waiting until 8/26 to stretch.
Recount in the money all 7 races,with 5 wins, notably last years Arlington-Washington Futurity.  Forged a 97 Brisnet 2 races back in a 50k ungraded race there, then bounced to 82 last time out at same level.I’m playing the bounceback angle here.  Also,3 strong works at AP in prep, and decent gain on leader early on last time.

Limousine Liberal 2 wins and 1 second lifetime; 2nd in the King’s Bishop last out with a 105 Brisnet, this ahead of a 98 in an allowance win,then his maiden debut win at 54k with an 83. Can he continue to reach new heights? I’m doubtful but his turn time last out is among the best here.
Suggested odds: Trouble Kid 2-1; Bayerd 9-1;  Hebbronville 14-1; Catalina Red 2-1 (overlay); Recount 5-1.

Next is the Cotillion, Grade 1 race, 8.5 furlongs for 3YOs. My top 3 are 4-5-11.
Stroke Play has 5 wins in 12 races, and 3 of 4 at Parx.  Owns 94 Brisnet on this track,best of this field, achieved 2 starts ago, followed up with a 93. This deep closer is best horse as measured by pace. Prior wins gaining in class and distance. Showed gain on leader in last race, as well as increased turn time despite slightly lower speed figure.
Take Charge Brandi 5 wins in 10 races including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies,the Delta Downs Princess, the Starlet and the Mount Washington, all consecutive. Best AWD numbers (Giant’s Causeway/Charming, by Seeking The Gold). 3 bullet works out of 5 strong efforts in prep.  Nice early effort in the Test last time before folding to last of 10.

Don’tforgetaboutme has 2 wins in 6, spiking to a 98 Brisnet last time out. Prior wins gaining in distance and class; gained the lead halfway through her 1 mile-70 yard race at Monmouth last time.
Suggested odds:  Take Charge Brandi 12-1.  I’m A Chatterbox 29-1; Embellish The Lace 14-1; Stroke Play 8-5 (overlay); Desert Valley 9-1 (overlay); Don’tforgetaboume 6-1 (overlay); Tara’s Tango, Keen Pauline, Peace & War, Calamity Kate all 20-1.  No favorites in this one.
Finally the Pennsylvania Derby is a Grade 2 race at 9 furlongs for 3YOs, $1 million at stake.  Top 3 are 7-6-1Tommy Macho 2 wins and 2 seconds in 5; 3rd in the Dwyer, then 7th in the WV Derby last time. Slight downturn from 98 to 93 Brisnet, maybe a mini-bounce. 4 works since, 2 of them very fast.

Frosted won the Wood Memorial and placed in a number of other prime stakes races; 11-2-6-1 lifetime.  Seconditis will not leave him in this race.   Best AWD numbers in the field (Tapit/Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister);  107 Brisnet achieved in the Wood Memorial is best for distance of the field. I measure him fastest of the field on basis of speed figures. His scores since the Wood: 96, 104,100 98. Joel Rosario returns to ride him again. Improved turn time and lowered speed figure in the Travers last out, should improve here.
Upstart won the Fountain Of Youth,Holy Bull and Funny Cide. 10-3-3-2. I like him mainly on the strength of his turn-time dominance.  His 23:2 turn time in the Travers is best of the field, itself a full 2 second gain from his run in the Haskell Invitational.
Suggested odds:  Frosted 3-1; War Story 9-2 (overlay); Island Town 7-1; Madefromlucky 7-1; Tommy Macho 7-1; Upstart 6-1; Mr.Z 10-1.

Idealistic Stats podcast 9/18/15

16th edition of the weekly Idealistic Stats podcast is now available.
Also accessible permanently at the Internet Archive:
Main website: idealisticstats.wordpress.com
This week’s podcast includes the following:
Analysis of top stakes action at Parx for 9/19
Fantasy football thoughts re my team toward Week 2
Update to the MLB greatest games project, completing first phase of data.
Music used in this program:
Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride The Sky CD http://www.anniewenz.com
DJ Flowerdove “Distant Project Gate (Remix)” & “Shimmer”
Thanks for listening!
Dan Herman
Twitter: @idealisticstats

Enlightened Derby/Oaks Trails update (track list, scoresheet)

Attached within this post is the latest EOT and EDT spreadsheets.  I’ve added a few tracks to the list and filled much of the available data relevant to the 2016 races.

In the aftermath of the 9//12 races, if you ask me now to figure who will win the Derby or Oaks, I will simply point to those who lead their divisions. There are 5 divisions in all, top 4 of each get in). Without drawing up another spreadsheet, and to keep the argument simple, one must look to these horses on the Derby side: Shogood, Nyquist, Ralis, Conquest Daddyo.  Also note 2 horses who ran 2nd and 3rd in races to each other, the only horses with multiple cashes in ET races thus far: Royal Lion, Better Than Magic

Oaks: Rachel’s Valentina, Songbird, Catch A Glimpse, and Native Princess (who also placed in an EDT race, the Shakopee Juvenile)


Enlightened Trails update (stakes analysis of Canterbury, Woodbine, Louisiana for 9/12/15)

And away we go….. 5 races on a Super Saturday for the Enlightened Trails.  Here they are in order of post time:
Woodbine: Natalma Stakes, 1 mile on the turf for 2YO fillies; this Grade 2 event pays out $200k, and offers 250-100-50-25 for the top 4 finishers in my EOT  (Enlightened Oaks Trail) system. It’s the 2nd such race in my East Coast division.
My top 3 are these: 1-10-4
Caren is undefeated in 3, winning stakes of 100 and 125k here, each against restricted and statebred. Each race earned him Brisnet between 85 and 89 figures. First time on the grass. Some risk of bounce with regard to her big stakes winning efforts, but she has best works of the field, 4 in all right here, 2 of them very fast.  Can she improve further at a route? My instinct says yes.
Miss Metropolitan won her maiden debut,then faltered to 7th in a 150k event,then 3rd first time on turf in a 74.5k allowance race. Nice pattern of Brisnet ratings, 75 to 81 in all 3 of her races. Only early-presser pace type in the field, so should contend sometime along the backstretch. Longshot and worth the price.
Gamble’s Ghost won her maiden debut with an 87 Brisnet and by 8.25 lengths.   Gained 1.5 lengths vs leader, and showed turn-time of 22:4, best of this field.
Suggested odds: Know Clouds 29-1; Paddy Point 29-1; Catch A Glimpse 7-1; Caren 3-2;Miss Metropolitan 4-1 (overlay); Pulled The Goalie 16-1; Gamble’s Ghost 7-1.
Good wagering race as I can eliminate the favorite out of the first 2 spots.

Next is the Happy Ticket at Louisiana Downs, a 75k event for 2YO fillies, going a mile on the turf.  My top 3: 3-12-4

Jazz Song has 2 3rds and 2 wins, breaking maiden in her 3rd start,which was her first on turf and a stretch to 7.5 furlongs. Back on dirt last time and shortening to 7, she won fairly easily in a 21k allowance race. Those last 2 races represented Brisnet scores of 75 and 78.  Best speed figures for the distance and the surface. Track bias is favoring early-pressers in turf routes at a rate of 38% wins, plus 14% in posts 1-3. With the increase in class and distance,plus the prior shipping win, and a return to turf, she’s worth the 5-1 morning line choice.
Saritta has one start, winning her maiden debut in July at Lone Star Park by 1.5 lengths and a 79 Brisnet, a score that’s best of the field. Has a number of workouts in prep, all very fast.
Flashy Appeal won the EvangelineDowns Starlet by 7 lengths with a 70 Brisnet last time out,first race other than maiden class. Pattern of Brisnets are 62-70.
Suggested odds: Theron 16-1(overlay); Jazz Song 2-1; Flashy Appeal 4-1; Dreamofhonor 11-1 (overlay); Saritta 4-1 (overlay); Sombree 8-1.
Very tasty wagering race here also; no faves in my top 3.  As it turns out, Sombree is the morning-line fave at a weak 4-1.
After this is the Sunday Silence Stakes at LaD, 75k ungraded event for top 2YOs, going 1 mile on the turf.  My choices here are 1-10-9.
Kid Creole broke maiden status in his 3rd try vs statebreds, peaking at 78 speed rating, that effort on turf. Faltered to 56 in the Evangeline Downs Starlet, returning to dirt. Best speed figures for distance and surface. I am willing to play the bounceback angle here.  He’s measured as top speed here based on pace.
Masterly has 1 win in 2 starts, graduating from maiden status last time out with a nice 79 Brisnet score, first time on a fast track,5.5 furlongs.  Yes he could bounce from that,but I like his turn time most among other variables.  Can’t see him bouncing here.
Better Than Magic was 3rd last time out in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile, impressed with a 73 Brisnet…this above his maiden win of 62 Brisnet, which was his only race on turf.  Possible bounce risk here. No Bute for this race; switch back to turf, where he’d won before, should be a positive. 3 works at Remington in prep.
Suggested odds: Hunsa’s Magic 29-1;Mimosa Morning 29-1; Kid Creole 2-1 (overlay); Masterly 3-1 (overlay); Aztec Lion 5-1 (overlay) Better Than Magic 5-1.
Another great race that promises a lot of value.

Next is the Summer Stakes at Woodbine, Grade 2 event for 2YOs, 1 mile on the turf.  My top 3 are 4-1-3
First time starter Conquest Enforcer a deserving morning-line pick.   I’m banking on the strength of his works; 6 of them here, 2 of them very fast, mainly at 5 furlongs.
Sky Marshal has 2 good runs on this turf course, with a 92 last time out in a 74.5k allowance. It was his first time with blinkers. That speed figure is best on this track of this field.  With a win increasing in class and in distance, plus a sharp work since last, he must be considered at a price.

Manhattan Dan (love the name) is a turf specialist with scores of 27, 81 and 95 running at the NY tracks.  Best turf speed of the field, best pace of the field overall. Turn time last time out was 22:4.
Suggested odds:  Hollywood Hideaway 11-1; Hammers Vision 29-1; Sky Marshal 9-2; Manhattan Dan 2-1 (overlay); The Zip Zip Man 6-1; Dragon Bay 19-1; Gigantic Breeze 10-1; Conquest Enforcer 8-1 (overlay).
Decent value here but favorite in my top slot.

Finally there is the Shakopee Juvenile at Canterbury Park, a 75k race,6 furlongs,for top 2YOs. My top 3 are 4-9-7

The highly regarded Stormation is my top choice. 3 wins in 3 races, 2 here, one at Prairie Meadows, Brisnet scores from 81 to 86.  Wire to wire victories in all 3 as well. He’s the absolute speed here. Track bias is favoring sprinters in posts 4 through 7 in 6 furlong dirt races. Gained 4/5 of a second of turn time in last race despite a lower speed figure.  I cannot see anyone defeating him..so here’s the best of the rest:
Bushrod has one start, a win in his maiden debut here on 6/7, 62 Brisnet.   Lots of works since the layoff, all at Canterbury, some of them rather fast.
Native Princess was 2nd in the Sorority at Prairie Meadows, prior to that a 3rd in the Prairie Gold Lassie. Brisnets range from 72 to 78.  Best Brisnet speed figures for the distance.
Suggested odds:  Cable Jet 29-1; Bushrod 3-1; Native Princess 8-1 (overlay); Amariah Grace 14-1; Rocket Joe Copper 24-1, Cashel Rock 24-1; Stormation 1-1.
Probably a race to pass up.