Enlightened Trails 2015-2016 (Mountaineer Park stakes analysis)

This week the Trails lead through West Virginia and Mountaineer Park for the Mountaineer Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies Stakes.   Both races offer points of 100-50-25-10 and are 100k.
I just have access to the past performances from the original nominations to the Juvenile, so my work there is actually somewhat incomplete. I feel more confident about the Juvenile Fillies where I do have the standard PPs.
We’ll look at the Juvenile first… 8  2YO colts going 6 furlongs
Here’s my 3 contenders:
BON VIVANT changed trainers after 3rd start, breaking maiden at 32k level t Indiana on 6/9. Strong series of workouts since that race including 2 bullet works.
TIA CHUY graduated in 4th lifetime start and was 4th in Churchill Downs’s Debutante on 6/27 last out. Her 68 figure in the maiden win on this track is best for track and off-track rating of this field. Debutante was 69 itself; wondering if a bounce is possible.  I like that she improved while gaining in distance.
SOMBREE won 3rd lifetime start, also 32k level with a sharp 72 rating, best score for the distance.
All 3 recently forged lifetime best starts tho all could bounce from their numbers too.
Here’s my suggested odds:
Fashion Starlet 5-1
Sombree 4-1
Paddy’s Flight 3-1
Tia Chuy 5-1
Bon Vivant 5-1
Polly Freeze 14-1
These 5 with the except of Paddy’s Flight appear to be overlay contenders,  a sizeable amount for a 12 race field.
Next is the Mountaineer Juvenile, also at 6 furlongs, 100k.
For this I had to rely on the nomination past performances, so a number of variables I depend on are lacking.
My contenders: (please note this info are my final choices since posting the podcast):
DAD’S DIVINE broke maiden in 3rd start at 14k level at Mountaineer, new top of 60 Brisnet, 4.5 furlongs. Best performance on track of this field. Does he bounce in this race?
BRAVURA won his debut vs statebred 20k maidens at Lone Star Park, 5 furlongs, 79 Brisnet.
KIOSK’S CAUSE is 2-for-2 lifetime, 17.3k maiden, and  the 75k Hoover Stakes (67 Brisnet). Received the most positive trainer changes of this field.
Suggested odds:
Allpride No Facts 29-1
Bravura 4-1
Blingitonagain 3-1 (overlay)
Dad’s Divine 5-2 (overlay)
Bullet Gone Astray 29-1
Kiosk’s Cause 5-1 (overlay)

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