Delaware Oaks/Stars & Stripes Stakes analysis

Briefly now, a look at 2 of the major stakes races taking place on July 11 2015
Delaware Oaks is for 3YO fillies, going 8.5 furlongs on the Delaware Park dirt track.  Being short on time, here’s my capsule look at my top 3 with greater focus on my projected winner:

MILAYA has 3 races here, more than her competitors. Broke maiden in her last effort winning by 5. 3 races back she started her 3YO campaign with a 93 Brisnet, big jump from her 2YO best. Followed up with 86 and 91 since. She seems to be taking to Delaware quite well. Best track figure for the field at 93. With that 93 score, she’s still in its influence to match that mark.   Lone early speed of the field.  Early runners for the distance during the meet are winning 35% of the races, with posts 1-3 at 17%. Owns fastest turn-time and turn time gain from last 2 races. Overlay compared to her 15-1 morning line price.

Also consider WHITE CLOVER (multiple positive trainer changes) and CALAMITY KATE (improving pace form at age 3 and an overlay)

Suggested odds: Bar Of Gold 14-1, Lovely Maria 7-2, Milaya 2-1, Calamity Kate 3-1, White Clover 5-1.

Arlington Park hosts the Stars & Stripes, a Grade 3 event for 3YO+ going the classic 12 furlongs on the AP turf course.
My top pick is the favored THE PIZZA MAN, winner of several ungraded event, and owns a stellar 11-8-1-1 record at AP.  Peaked with a 111 Brisnet best for the surface and distance, in October at Woodbine, in the Canadian Intl. Since then, scored a 98 and 96.  Top AP numbers too, with a 103, achieved last year in the American St. Leger.  Best overall speed figures for the field.  Prior wins after upgrade in class, stretchout in distance, worktab (last one was bullet), shipping win, and also prior win on the track during the summer. 22.6 turn time last time out, a gain of 1-4/5 seconds from the previous, and still set a speed figure a bit lower than prior.  Easy favorite pick at 2-1.
Others to consider:
MISTER MARTI GRAS (103 Brisnet on turf 3 races back, great workout tab based at AP, 2nd race under reclaim by Chris Brock)

XTRA LUCK (winner of the Louisville at Churchill last time out,prior winner off layoff, recent pattern of Brisnets 95, 95, 103)

Suggested odds: Calvados  30-1. The Pizza Man 3-2. Roman Approval 9-1. Xtra Luck 9-1 (overlay), Mister Marti Gras 2-1(overlay), Three Hearts 30-1.

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