2015 Queen’s Plate analysis

Had a rather successful day at Emerald yesterday, with no pick worse than 4. In the Juan Gonzalez, Stays In Vegas indeed won out, and ibelievewecanwin did find her way to 3rd.     Also, I wagered actual money on the big Belmont Oaks.  My plan was to identify the overlays and play them to win plus faves over them in exactas.  Depending on odds, I’d play the top 3 in exactas to each other. My bets were these:
1,4,12/2  2/1-3-4-12 exactas
win: 1,3,4,12
$15 total wagered.
#2, Lady Eli was the sole favorite  at 80 cents to 1 dollar. I love beating one favorite as it makes the other pools that much more attractive.   So I had my picks Pine Needles, Darling Duchess, Sharla Rae and Itsonlyactingdad involved in exactas and wins.  The result? 2-4! Itsonlyactingdad at 35-1 closed well in the stretch for 2nd behind the favorite, and the $1 exacta paid $39.75.

I hope to continue the trend with today’s big race north of the 48, the Queen’s Plate, worth $1 million tho is actually an ungraded stakes race for Canadian-foaled 3YOs.  With a 13-horse field, there are a number of options but here’s my top 3:
AMI’S FLATTER had placed in the Florida and the Tampa Bay Derbys. Only won her maiden debut here. Responded well when introduced to Lasix and blinkers in the Tampa Bay, but blinkers will be off this time.  Layoff should not be a problem as he did win that first lifetime race. Gained nicely in turn-time last time out by 2.8 seconds in the Marine here on 5/16. Registered a lower speed figure too,so maybe there’s something extra today.

On the other side of the starting gate, Shaman’s Ghost won the aforementioned Marine, 3rd straight win. Broke maiden status winning upon layoff. This deep closer has the best speed numbers per pace in the field. Best work tab too, with 4 works put in at Woodbine.  I like the pattern of speed figures in his last 3 races, 87, 88, 90. Shares in best turn time last race, at 23.6 seconds.
Breaking Lucky my 3rd pick is the best of 3 overlays I see here. Won his maiden debut first time on the poly at Woodbine, then a 2nd in an optional-claimer for 75k, then 7th in a 58.6k allowance race.  All four lifetime races with blinkers on, but they come off today.  Prior win stretching out, and owns a bullet work since last race.  Also, James McAleney returns to ride (he rode the horse’s lone lifetime win).
My suggested odds:
Shaman’s Ghost 7-2. Ault 9-1. Academic 7-1. Danish Dynaformer 29-1. Breaking Lucky 5-1. Easy Indigo 14-1.  Ami’s Flatter 3-1.
Overlays in this race based on morning line: Ault, Breaking Lucky, Easy Indigo.
Watch for updates on my Twitter feed at @idealisticstats
Will be turning shortly to Emerald Downs as I handicap and select horses for the last 6.

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