Enlightened Trails update: Oak Tree @ Pleasanton stakes analysis

And so it begins.  The first races in the 2015-16 Enlightened Trails (patent pending) begin this holiday weekend. The site for the debut, as it was last year, is the Oak Tree racing meet, held at the Pleasanton Fairgrounds, the oldest horse track in the US.
For the fillies, there is the Juan Gonzalez Memorial, 5.5 furlongs, 50k.  Point distribution to top 4: 100-50-25-10, all based in the Minor category.   I’ve no official past performances to go on, but I do have some numbers from Equibase that came from the nomination list.
Here’s the top 3:
STAYS IN VEGAS is a first-time starter, with nothing but great works at Golden Gate coming in. Only filly running without Lasix, and is carrying 2 lbs less than the others.   On board is Ricardo Gonzalez, winning at 18%.
MARQUEE CAT won her 2nd race, stretching to 5 furlongs, and stretches here again.  Best turn time and turn time gain of the field.
IBELIEVEWEWILLWIN won her maiden debut in sparkling fashion, a 5.5 length victory on 5/15 on  Golden Gate’s all-weather surface, 4.5 furlongs.  Considering the layoff, she should not show any rust here.
And for the colts there is the Everett Nevin Memorial, 5.5 furlongs, at 50k.   This race is also one I have no EquibJuaase PPs for but I do have info from the nominations.  EOT points: 100-50-25-10
MARQULA enters as a first-timer, and 4 works, last 2 were at OTP and very fast.
SMOKEY IMAGE gathered the best turn-time of this 7-horse field, 22.68,in his maiden debut here on 6/21
QUORUM OF JOY comes in with the best Equibase speed figure, a 94, winning at 4.5 furlongs here on 6/20.
Please stay in touch on Twitter at @idealisticstats
For more about the Enlightened Trails, see this page

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