Belmont Oaks analysis

Having noticed the Million Dollar Finish contest is involving the Belmont Oaks Invitational, I decided to try my virtual luck at this event. This is a race for 3YO fillies going 12 furlongs on Belmont Park’s turf course
Top 3 are each of my overlays for the race.
DARING DUCHESS makes big move in class after 2 filly allowance races. She had an 87 Brisnet score in her 3YO debut, later surpassed in her last start with an 89. She might bounce, as the score is a spike up from 78. Already a winner following a stretchout and owns 2 good workouts coming in. Also has a shipping victory, and is waiting the longest of this field to stretch.  Love the 20-1 morning line odds.

PINE NEEDLES moves up after a 3rd in a 200k stake event. 4 of 4 lifetime in the money. Best average-winning-distance numbers of the field (Giant’s Causeway-Meridiana, Lomitas) Best turn time gain in the field while also having a lower speed figure. Set 2 small tops last 2 races in the 80s. Also intriguing at 20-1.

ITSONLYACTINGDAD has 2 wins and a 2nd in 4 lifetime. Bounced to a 82 after posting a lifetime best 91 prior to that; I’m playing the bounceback angle here. Fastest turn time of the field, 22.8.

My suggested odds:  Pine Needles 5/1.  Lady Eli, Spanish Queen, Sentiero Italia 22-1. Sharla Rae 29-1. Daring Duchess 1-1. Itsonlyactingbad 7-1.
I’d watch for these overlays to play as win and under public favorites in exactas but probably not exactas to each other unless 2 of them are better than 10-1 nearing post time

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s