Garcia/Malignaggi analysis

Danny Garcia and Paul Malignaggi fight at Brooklyn NY’s Barclays Center in a major welterweight contest, 12 rounds.

Garcia is the #2 world ranked boxer by  Undefeated in 30 fights, with 17 KOs.  Philly born and raised, he makes his 3rd straight appearance (and 5th overall) in the Borough Of Churches.  This is just his 9th fight set for 12. In those fights,he’s scored just 2 KOs, both in the early rounds (before the 5th).  He owns (for now) the WBC world super lightweight title along with the WBA super world super lightweight title.

Tough cycles here….only his intuition is in good form. The vital cycles just not in place.

Magic Man Malignaggi fights in front of his hometown crowd for the 5th time.   33-6-0 with 7 wins and 3 losses by KO.   2-2 in last 4.  14 fights t 12 rounds, going 27-6, recording 1 midfight KO win, and 1 early KO and 2 late KO losses.  First non-title fight since 2011.

Actually has very similar cycles going on..emotionally is doing fine but concerned a bit. Intuition is is solid.
Common opponents:
Zab Judah:
Malignaggi won via decision in 12
Garcia won a 12-round  decision in 12
Amir Kahn:
Christopher Fernandez:
Malignaggi won via decision in 8.
Garcia won via TKO, 7th of 10 rounds.
Very hard to choose between both fighters but I’m going with Garcia considering his win over Kahn.
Cycles courtesy of
Other stats:

Enlightened Trails 2015-2016 (Mountaineer Park stakes analysis)

This week the Trails lead through West Virginia and Mountaineer Park for the Mountaineer Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies Stakes.   Both races offer points of 100-50-25-10 and are 100k.
I just have access to the past performances from the original nominations to the Juvenile, so my work there is actually somewhat incomplete. I feel more confident about the Juvenile Fillies where I do have the standard PPs.
We’ll look at the Juvenile first… 8  2YO colts going 6 furlongs
Here’s my 3 contenders:
BON VIVANT changed trainers after 3rd start, breaking maiden at 32k level t Indiana on 6/9. Strong series of workouts since that race including 2 bullet works.
TIA CHUY graduated in 4th lifetime start and was 4th in Churchill Downs’s Debutante on 6/27 last out. Her 68 figure in the maiden win on this track is best for track and off-track rating of this field. Debutante was 69 itself; wondering if a bounce is possible.  I like that she improved while gaining in distance.
SOMBREE won 3rd lifetime start, also 32k level with a sharp 72 rating, best score for the distance.
All 3 recently forged lifetime best starts tho all could bounce from their numbers too.
Here’s my suggested odds:
Fashion Starlet 5-1
Sombree 4-1
Paddy’s Flight 3-1
Tia Chuy 5-1
Bon Vivant 5-1
Polly Freeze 14-1
These 5 with the except of Paddy’s Flight appear to be overlay contenders,  a sizeable amount for a 12 race field.
Next is the Mountaineer Juvenile, also at 6 furlongs, 100k.
For this I had to rely on the nomination past performances, so a number of variables I depend on are lacking.
My contenders: (please note this info are my final choices since posting the podcast):
DAD’S DIVINE broke maiden in 3rd start at 14k level at Mountaineer, new top of 60 Brisnet, 4.5 furlongs. Best performance on track of this field. Does he bounce in this race?
BRAVURA won his debut vs statebred 20k maidens at Lone Star Park, 5 furlongs, 79 Brisnet.
KIOSK’S CAUSE is 2-for-2 lifetime, 17.3k maiden, and  the 75k Hoover Stakes (67 Brisnet). Received the most positive trainer changes of this field.
Suggested odds:
Allpride No Facts 29-1
Bravura 4-1
Blingitonagain 3-1 (overlay)
Dad’s Divine 5-2 (overlay)
Bullet Gone Astray 29-1
Kiosk’s Cause 5-1 (overlay)

PGA Quickens National 2015 analysis

Quickens National Invitational is one of a handful such tournaments on the PGA Tour, and is being held at the Robert Trent Jones Golf Club, site of prior Presidents Cups, tho I haven’t located any specific invitational or open tournaments that have taken place at the RTC course itself.
Here are my fearless foursome for the week:

WILL WILCOX  is #135 in the world.   6/2/86.  4th year on tour, 2nd full.   9 of 13 cuts made, 3 top 10s, one second.   Lifetime: 19 of 31 cuts made, 5 top 10s, 1 second.
top 10s: Greens in regulation, holes per hole, sand save %, scoring average, total driving, all-around, approaches 175-200,all over 200 from rough, putting over 25’, round 1 and 4 scoring plus final, par 3 and 4,

Mixed bag of cycles; emotional critical day for round 4 and very poor decision making, yet will feel upbeat and passionate.

JOHN PETERSON  ranks as #252. 4th year on tour, 2nd full year. This year, 18 of 22 cuts made, 6 top 25s.   Lifetime: 36 of 62 cuts 11 top 25s, and 2 top 10s.
Top 10 stats:  None

Terrible cycles, with physical critical in round 3. Won’t survive the cut.
DANIEL BERGER    #79 in the world.  First full year on the tour.   Lifetime 15 cuts in 25, 5 top 10s.
Top 10s: Approaches 200-225, all over 200, longest hole outs in yards, back 9 scoring, par 5s.
Challenging cycles, facing a double critical day for the latter rounds re his mental and intuitive cycles; will need to rely on overall power.

JASON BOHN    Ranks #103. 13th year on the tour. This year: 17 of 22 cuts made, 4 top 10s. Lifetime: 189 of 289, 25 top 10s, 2 wins.
Here are the stats he ranks in the top 10 with: Driving accuracy percentage, approaches 225-250, 175-200, 225-250 (rough), 125-150 (rough), putting average, 3-putt avoidance, putts from 3 and 8’. Front 9, late scoring, par 4.

Great cycles here, good sense of passion here as well as pure power and liveliness, tho will make more of his share of errors.
I generally like all 4 golfers but Bohn is my pick of these to win.

Saratoga stakes analysis 7/25/15

2 big stakes races for the first Saturday of the Spa meet:

The Grade 3 Sanford Stakes is for top 2YOs going 6 furlongs.
Top choice:  Cocked & Loaded is the morning-line favorite.Winner of the 250k Tremont at Belmont last out,undefeated in 2, layoff before Tremont and today. Gained sharply from 81 to 89, so mind the bounce possibility.  Won while stretching from 4.5 to 5.5 furlongs. 4 works at AP since the Tremont, last 2 virtual bullets. Shipper win last time as well. Waiting since June to stretch, so he should be raring to go.
I also like Uncle Vinny and Percolator here to fill out the top 3, upon the scratch of my original 2nd choice.
Suggested odds:  Awesome Slew 14-1. Magna Light 7-1 and the lone overlay thus far. How so? He has best pace numbers of the field (103 at first call in his maiden debut) and must be considered should there be off track conditions.   He’s Comin In Hot: 7-1. Cocked And Loaded 2-1.We turn then to the TVG Diana Stakes, Grade 1 race on turf for fillies/mares going 9 furlongs on the turf.

Top 3:
Kitten’s Queen is one of 2 that I like as an overlay. Winner of the Jersey Lilly at Sam Houston in February, she’s been in the money for her last 10 races, and is 20-5-3-7 lifetime. Prior win from cutback in distance, she is the only prior winner from last year’s Spa meet of the field, and owns several shipping victories. Very good worktab compared to the others.
Stephane’s Kitten, like Kitten’s Queen, is out of dam Kitten’s Joy.  Best turf speed and shares in top distance speed of the field.  Also shares in fastest turn time at :23 in last race while running lower speed figure.

Lady Lara  forged a lifetime best speed figure this year and gained sharply in speed last out in the Just A Game Stakes at Belmont on 6/6. Waiting the longest of these to stretch out.  I’m willing to forgive her wide trip in that race, as she did make up for lost time in closing. Has a good close pattern of Brisnet scores, and also :23 turn time from last race.

Suggested odds:
Stephanie’s Kitten: 3-1.  Kitten’s Queen: 2-1 My Miss Sophia 7-1.  Lady Lara: 3-1.

2015 RBC Canadian Open selections

RBC Canadian Open, an early claimant to ‘5th major’ status in PGA history, returns to Glen Abbey Golf Course in Oakville, Ontario, a Nicklaus design.
For this week, I have 3 golfers who fit in the top 50 of both Ball Striking and Scrambling

11/12/87  #9 in the world. 10th year on the tour.  11 of 13 cuts made this year, 6 top 10s, 1 win. Lifetime: 127 of 164 with 42 top 10s, 3 wins.
Top 10s: Driving distance, birdie average, all around, going for the green, approaches from 200-225, 100-125, +-50-125, putting average (never missed under 3’ this year),putting over 20’, low round, scoring average, round 1 scoring, back 9, early, par 4, final round, bounce back

Glen Abbey history:
2008: 65-75-69-73, tied for 48th. Best holes: 4, 5, 15, 18. Worst: 14, 16.
2009: 70-70-72-71, 52nd. Best holes: 11, 16, 17, 18. Worst: 4, 6, 12
Very weak physically but is attuned to his surroundings, and should have his short game developed well to succeed.
#3 in the world. 10th full year on tour. This year: 10 of 12 cuts made, 5 top 10s 2 wins.  Lifetime: 158 of 225, 92 top 25s, 43 top 10s, 8 wins.
Top 10s: driving distance, strokes gained, holes per eagle, scoring average, club head speed, going for green, approaches 225-250, 125-150, round 1 scoring, front 9, par 5, bounce back.
2008 69-73, missed cut. Best: 13. Worst: 9.
2009 75-68, missed cut Best holes: 2, 15, 16. Worst: 4
2013  68-67-72-73,21st Best holes: 2, 12, 18. Worst: 8
Here’s an example of what Bubba can do, and did…
Physical critical day for round 1 will not help his chances right off, nor his low emo and intuitive cycles.  Mentally he’s rather strong.  He should invest more into his short game.  The good news is that his overall athletic ability is good as well as focus  Not one to throw out.
Ranks #248 in the world.  4th year on tour.  This year, made 18 of 21 cuts, 6 top 25s. Lifetime: 36 of 60 cuts, 11 top 25s, just 2 top 10s.   No top 10 stats.   First appearance at Glen Abbey.
Mixed bag  but on the negative side. Physically and intuitively is fine but a real negative outlook, not connecting well to the surroundings.  Wisdom levels very low; cannot make crucial decisions well. Intuition will fail him if he makes it to the weekend.   Likely not to make the cut.

Kovalev/Mohammedi fight analysis (7/25/15)

Sergey Kovalev defends his WBA, IBF and WBO light-heavyweight titles vs Nadjib Mohammedi, 7/25/15 at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino in Las Vegas.   It’s the first big fight at the resort in 15 months.   Kovalev owns a 6 inch height advantage, and 2 inches more in reach.   The Ring Magazine ranks Kovalev as the top contender for the title in the class, and Mohammedi 9th.
Common opponent:
Kovalev dispatched Nathan Cleverly 8/13,TKO in 4th round of 12. Nathan’s record coming in was 26-0-0. You can watch that here:
Mohammedi lost to Cleverly, 12/10,decision in 12. It was his 2nd lifetime loss, and first via decision.  Here’s coverage of this one in 2 parts:
Krusher Kovalev has owned the WBO  since 11/2013 and added the other two in a decision over Bernard Hopkins a year later.  27-0-1, 24 wins by KO, for a strong 86% KO rate. ranks him best in the class worldwide.   Just 9 12-round fights in his career, he’s won each, with 4 KOs in early rounds, 3 middle.  It will be his 2nd fight in NV.
Good looking cycles here, the only negative being his mental state, tho it is on the rise. Power is at its peak, and passion is quite strong as well, good overall outlook for a KO I’d say.
Mohammedi has 13 straight wins since his last loss in 2011.   It’s his first title fight in 2011, and his first time attempting to win the IBF and WBA belts (2nd time for the
WBO belt).  In 10 fights scheduled for 12, he is 8-2, with 3 early KOs, 3 middle KOs.  Ranked as best in class in his native France, 12th worldwide.    Lost last 2 fights going against fighters with 0 or 1 loss.   This will be his 3rd fight in the US, 1st on the West Coast.
As good as Krusher’s is, Mohammedi’s is even better.  3 main cycles are very strong, with his intuition not nearly where it should be.   Athletic ability, his motivation to continue into the fight and decision-making process are all rather strong.  Kovalev can hope to match him in heart.

This will be one exciting fight. Both fighters have the ability to KO but it will be Kovalev who will duck the wrong way and walk into Mohammedi’s punches sometime late.

Idealistic Stats podcast 7/23/15

8th edition of the Idealistic Stats podcast is now available.
Also accessible permanently at the Internet Archive:
In this edition:
Recap of prior week’s coverage and selections
Analysis of the 7/25 fight for the light-heavyweight title in 3 organizations, Kovalev/Mohammedi
Analysis of this week’s RBC Canadian Open on the PGA Tour
Selections for stakes races at Saratoga Race Track, 7/25
Main website:
Music used in this program:
Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride The Sky
Revel 9 “San Jose” – The Razorblade Diaries EP
Matt Ellis “On The Horizon”- The Greatest Escape CD
DJ Flowerdove “Distant Project Gate (Remix)”
Thanks for listening!
Dan Herman
Twitter: @idealisticstats