Thoughts on 2015 UAE Derby & Dubai World Cup

I want to get this post out of the way as there’s a lot to type about. For this post specifically you’ll see my approach in picking horses in the UAE Derby and Dubai World Cup.
Honestly this was very difficult because the non-North American horses do not get Brisnet numbers.  What I decided was to approximate the winning time with the distance, then subtract a bit based on lengths back. It was painstaking, to go over every PP for 2 races, but I got it done. I was able to create this makeshift pace form to determine what appear to be fast/slow trends.
Here’s my top 3 for the UAE Derby, a race for 10 3YOs going 9.5 furlongs.
#7 Kentucky-bred GOLDEN BAROWS has 4 lifetime races, all at 1 mile, in Tokyo. Won the Hyacinth, 287k ungraded race, last time.  3 wins and a 2nd lifetime, all wins as the top choice by the public.  The best I can guess is that he’s reached small new tops to start his 3YO campaign, and seems to have the fastest pace overall. 2 wins from a middle post.
#9 MAFTOOL has 7 lifetime races, 3 wins, 2 secons, 1 3rd. At Meydan: 1 win and 1 3rd, coming during this meet. Seems to have the best connections coming in (Saaed bin Suroor, Paul Hanagan). Winner of Graded stakes events on grass and turf. First 5 races in England, last 2 here at Meydan, with a win in the UAE 2000 Guineas.
#10 DEAR DOMUS, like Golden Barows, has Asian connections. All races in Japan, with 2 ungraded stakes wins. Only reason I consider him is a noticeable gain in pace in his last few races.
The world’s richest race, the Dubai World Cup involves 9 of the best thoroughbreds anywhere, going 10 furlongs.
#5 LEA, racing in Gulfstream for the last 4 races, has 2 Graded victories. Can win right off layoff. Reported 4 works since his last race (Donn Handicap, 2/7), all very fast, including one bullet.  Slight bounce risk. Previously won after gaining a handful of pounds as he does here.
#9 CALIFORNIA CHROME, since his Triple Crown attempt, has mixed results, though does have a win in the Hollywood Derby on 11/29, then 2nd in the Santa Anita Invitational. Only horse in the field who appears to have forward pace progression
The oddsmakers seems to agree on Lea and Chrome are the top 2 for certain.  My 3rd choice might not be as popular: #1 PRINCE BISHOP arrives with multiple wins on the Meydan course, and was 9th in the World Cup last year. Best connections here (Saaed bin Suroor, William Buick). Several wins from an inner post.
2 races, probably not very exciting in terms of turning a profit, but the competition is worth watching. Go
Next post, as soon as I’m able to publish it, will focus on this weekend’s Derby Future Wager, Pool 4.  Beyond that, I should have to post about Saturday’s major stakes races, including the Enlightened Trails events.

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