Enlightened Trails update: Sunland Park

So much to catch up on from Saturday! I won The Racing Biz’s monthly contest, thanks to Balto More’s 30-1 score in the final race, and 5 placings out of 6 in Remington’s High Q Test.  Here was the announcement:

This morning I wake up rather late to do much analysis for the RP selections for today’s part of the contest.   But I do have thoughts about the big races at Sunland, with both races in focus for the Enlightened Trails.
With yesterday’s races I have updated the standings tho I will print the latest chart after Sunday’s action.  Essentially, the Minor division for the colts has closed.  Bridget’s Big Luvy (Private Terms winner), Why Two (Turf Paradise Derby) , A Day In Paradise (Texas Heritage Stakes), with 500 points are locked into my Derby field, along with Bodhisattva with his 250 points, finishing 2nd in the Private Terms.  From the Heartland division, with Dubai Sky’s win in the Spiral, he leads with 1000 points. Conquest Typhoon (2nd in the Spiral) is 2nd with 500. El Kabeir and Firespike (3rd in the Spiral) have 250. These 4 are in but not locked in as there is one race left in that division, the Blue Grass Stakes.    Top two in the Bourbonette Oaks, Don’t Leave Me and Sweet Success, have the lead in their Heartland division with 1000 and 500 respectively. West Coast Belle is 3rd with 250 points.   Then in the filly Minor division, By The Moon now assumes the lead in tiebreakers with 500 points, over SUM Racer and Sharla Rae.   I’ll update the charts and outline who is in and out by Sunday evening.

SUNLAND OAKS involves leading 3YO fillies going 8.5 furlongs, 200k purse.  Top 4 earn 1000-500-250-125. Essentially the winner gets locked into my mythical KY Oaks field, and the 2nd place finisher should be in that mix as well. Only room for the top 2 in the Minor division to get into that one.
Top 3 :
(2) CALLBACK makes her EDT debut in this race. Winner of the Las Virgiennes last time out at Santa Anita in January, 2nd in the Santa Ynez there as well. 4 works at SA during the layoff, so you know she’s been thoroughly prepared for this particular race.  This sprinter has the best early fractions of the field, a race with no closers to be found in.  With 4 lifetime races, only her maiden debut was uneventful.  Deserving pre-race favorite.
(7)ROUSANNE seems best of the rest. Already with 8 lifetime starts, placed in several ungraded stakes here at good prices. Only win came in her maiden debut last May. She has the best connections in the field (Ry Eikleberry riding 27% wins, trainer Justin Evans 26%). She was laid off from October to January, responding well and improved from initial 2015 race with a new top of 79 in the Island Fashion here last time. Probably not fast enough to defeat Callback tho.
(3) FANCY & FLASHY after being claimed from poor maiden debut, shipped to Sunland, turned in some good works, and broke maiden 2 starts later. Big stretch out here from 5.5 furlongs. I like the paired tops of 77 and the fact that she comes out of a good trip compared to others.
A good race to have value horses under the big fave in exactas, which is how I would play this, maybe even 2 or 3 to win outright between these 3 sprinters.
The SUNLAND DERBY is a Grade 3 event for top 3YO colts, 800k purse. This race is part of the Southern division of the EDT. Points are 1000-500-250-125.  Top 2 will be major players for the KY Derby within the EDT, tho there still 3 more races in that division to determine who will belong.    Lord Nelson, whom I liked in the Pool 3 future wager, is an early scratch. Reports are he will head to Aqueduct for the Bay Shore Stakes next month.
Top 3:
(1) FIRING LINE finished first or 2nd in all four lifetime races. 2nd in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita last month, 2nd in the Los Alamitos Futurity prior to that. All 4 races saw small increases in his Brisnet speed ratings from 92 to 100.  He is clearly the speed of the field. 4 very fast works at SA in prep for today. Also deserving his morning-line favorite status.
(4) WHY TWO is very easy to like: 4th in his maiden debut at 56k, then won at the same level 22 days later with lifetime best of 96, then wired the Turf Paradise Derby field last month at a slower 85.  Switches back to Victor Espinoza for this. 3 works at SA, all fast, include a bullet work. I like that he won shipping to Turf Paradise as well. Best of the rest. Already in my EDT KY Derby field.
(3)  WHERE’S THE MOON after claim by Henry Dominguez posted new tops of 77 and a big 94 last time out here, winning the 100k Mine That Bird Derby. Horse-for-course; 2 wins in 3 starts at Sunland. Stretch to 9 furlongs should not be an issue.
SImilar to the Sunload Oaks, we have a clear favorite, and equally clear contending value underneath.

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