Enlightened Trails update: Laurel Park, Turfway Park

An insanely busy day here, as I have had to prepare for 3 contests:
The weekly Public Handicapper contest, which includes stakes races
Derby Dollars Contest, with one major race
The Racing Biz monthly contest, with action at Laurel and Gulfstream.
14 races got covered.   Let’s get the latter contest out of the way.  My single selections in each race are these:
Laurel Park
Race 2: 5
Race 3: 2
Race 4: 3
Race 5: 4
Race 6: 5
Race 7: 1
Race 8: 8
Race 9: 6
Race 7: 2
Race 8: 5

The Derby Dollars race this week is the Spiral Stakes
Public Handicapper has The Pasadena, the San Luis Rey, the Bourbonette Oaks and the Spiral.

Also it’s a prime weekend for the Enlightened Trails. 5 races this weekend will further shape my mythical fields for the Kentucky Derby and Oaks.
With so much to offer here, I’ll just do analysis of my top choice, and present my top 3 selections in the EOT and EDT events. We’ll start with the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel, 9 furlongs, 100k purse. It’s the last race in the Minor track division. Top 4 from this division are locked into my EDT field. Those 4 have at least 250 points.  The point scheme for this race is 500-250-100-50. Based on the field for this race, with all new shooters for the EDT, this locks in the top two spots from the division, going to Why Two and A Day In Paradise. Winner of this race also gets in, with the 2nd place finisher getting in via tiebreak, and knocking out Academy Bay.
Top 3 here are 3: Now We Are Free, 1, Boddhisattva, and 4, Slick William
Now We Are Free is the big longshot in a small field of 6. Here’s why I like him: Bounced terribly in pace in the Jerome Stakes last time out at Aqueduct in January.  He had posted a 91 prior to that race, in an optional claimer at the 40k level here at Laurel. Appears to have best back class. 2 wins in 2 starts at LP. Also has a win first off layoff. No other horse here has been off this long while stretching out. Won her maiden race shipping here from Saratoga.
Next is the Spiral, in the Heartland division. 9 furlongs, 550k purse for this Grade 3 race.   Points are 1000-500-250-125 to the top four. Entering this race, several horses have EDT points but none in this division.   Imperia was a late scratch here.   My top 3 are 3, Watchyourownbobber, 12, Dubai Sky, and 1, Royal Son, comprising the 2 sprinters and more early speed of this field.     Watchyourownbobber won his first 2 starts. a 50k maiden claimer, and a 75k optional claimer, both turf routes at Gulfstream. Enters with a strong work tab, including a bullet work last time. Runs best with an inner post. Won last effort with an 85, still considerably slower than maiden winner with nice sprinting trip at 92. Has the prior wins with regard to class and distance, and should have no problem shipping from warmer climes.

On the filly side, we look first to Laurel Park and the Ceasar’s Wish, 8 furlongs, 100k race, next-to-last race in the Minors for fillies.  Top 3 selections: 5 By The Moon, 6 Hot City Girl, and 3 Country Mamma.  By The Moon won the Grade 1 Frizette in her 3rd lifetime start.  Poor showings since then in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and Forward Gal.  Already the top East Coast division filly for the EOT list. Owns best pace for the distance, has prior win just off layoff. Has worked frequently and well in the meanwhile and deserves to be the favorite.

Finally there is the Bourbonette Oaks, a mile event  at Turfway Park’s all-weather course, Grade 3, 150k purse.  Top 3: 3 Don’t Leave Me, 6 Harlan’s Destiny, 5 Back Flip.  Don’t Leave Me ships from Woodbine, winner of his first 2 of 3 starts, then went on layoff since September. Top average-winning-distance scores from pedigree, thanks to sire Lemon Drop Kid. Great works during layoff. Posted scores of 81, 82 and 75 in lifetime races.

That’s about it from here. I’d type more but I’m working off a big headache. See if I recover well enough later through my Twitter handle, @idealisticstats.

EDT/EOT charts are current through the 3/7 races.

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