I’ve enclosed an updated list of my mythical Derby and Oaks fields. Looking at the Derby field first, I’ve updated this with 3 new names to replace last week. International Star and Stanford each get a spot thanks to their 1-2 finish in the Louisiana Derby. Materiality’s win in the Florida Derby all but punches his ticket to the Run for those Roses. With 3 wild-card spots to fill because of multiple winners in divisions and the removal of Texas Red from the trail, the top 3 of the best of the rest are these: Ami’s Flatter (2nd, Tampa Bay Derby; 3rd, Florida Derby) Stanford, and American Pharoah, who broke a tie with 7 horses. I simply had to go as far as as his Grade 1 victory at age 2 in the Del Mar Futurity.
In the Oaks Trail, 2 new entries replace the older. The winners of the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Oaks, I’m A Chatterbox and Birdatthewire, take the top 2 positions in the South for the time being. No changes until 4/4, as we witness the running of the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn. A top 3 finish here will seal a place in my Oaks field.
Honeyfox Stakes: I did nail Coffee Clique’s 3rd place finish.
Orchid Stakes: Kitten’s Point was 3rd instead of my predicted 2nd.
Fair Grounds Oaks: Shook Up finished 2nd, not 3rd.
Louisiana Derby: War Story finished 3nd instead of my predicted 2rd; likewise International Star won instead of being 3rd. So this was a somewhat more accurate read.
Florida Derby: Upstart was in the mixing, finishing 2nd but I had him to win.
Derby: Top 4 horses already with 1000, the equivalent of a win. I do not have info on Arkansas Derby nominations yet. This race will run on 4/11. www.horseracingnation.com suggests 4 horses that are probable for that race, but only Far Right has any points in the division and just 50 at that. If it’s all horses from outside the division, that horse would have to win outright for any chance to be in my mythical field.
Heartland: Blue Grass Stakes has a lot of possibilities. Top 4 bottom out with 250 points, so a win or 2nd will make an impact, and maybe 3rd or 4th from those with points already. Those to watch who have points: International Star (25), El Kabeir (250), Firespike (250).
South: Top 3 already have 1000, so a win by someone with no points in the Fantasy Stakes could be enough. If not for the top 4 then perhaps a wild-card entry, as I’d take the horse with the most points outside of a top 4 position, compensating for those who are off the actual Trail, or who have high scores in more than 1 division. Forever Unbridled is the one filly from the noms with EOT points, 250 at that. Not listed by HRN as probable.
Heartland: Top 3 bottom out with 250 points. Look for these from the nominations to the Ashland: Sweet Success (500), West Coast Belle (250), Sarah Sis (100).
Cali: Top 3 have as little as 125 and really goes lower with Take Charge Brandi being off the trail yet leading with 500. So possibly even a 4th place finish can get a horse into my mythical Oaks field. I’ve not seen noms for this race yet, but HRN doesn’t list any fillies that have EOT points.
I did some last minute research to figure out if several of my top choices might still be on the actual Derby Trail. I got fixated on my eventual top 3 and forgot to place another series of exacta wagers. That mistake I hope will not come back to haunt me.
To remind you, I had conditional wagers on my top 3: International Star, Daredevil, Dortmund. International Star predictable took more $ in the pool after his win and so I eliminated him. Daredevil is not getting any love and he was an easy 1st choice. I have to hope he scores well in the Blue Grass or Wood, whichever he gets eligible to. Dortmund also took more $ and I skipped him. So I had to find 2 more to put win bets on. Mr Z was next in my rankings, but his poor effort Saturday steered me away from taking a chance on him again, despite very low odds. Upstart was next, and he was easy to snap up as a 2nd choice. I then ranked Bold Conquest below him. Bold Conquest needs points, and he’s in better shape than Mr. Z, next likely running in the Blue Grass Stakes. I think he’ll need a top 3 finish to have a chance. I had to go 7-deep to pick 3 available horses for a win bet.
Win $2 on Daredevil, Upstart, Bold Conquest.
Exacta ($1) between these horses, and also field above and below these. Total wagered: $18.