2015 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager analysis/selections

The big future wager weekend is here. You’ve’ seen my prior post announcing who is getting bet on from me for the 3rd Derby pool. Now you’re about to find out my top 4 for this year’s Oaks.
In studying the available selections, they bear no resemblance to my mythical Oaks field. Just 6 horses from my current projected field made it to either part of the Oaks future wager.    The variables I use are the same as with the Derby wager; you may refer to my /Derby future wager post for more on this.
Cutting to the chase, I had a photo for win and show in picking the top 4. There was room for more horses but decided to set the bar high.
#4 ANGELA RENEE just misses getting into my top 3 but certainly is worthy of selection. Entered in Graded company since her maiden debut win steadily progressing in distance. Winner of the 8.5 furlong Chandler at Santa Anita, top 3 overall in 4 Graded events. Her 91 in the Chandler was exceeded last out in the Rachel Alexandra, scoring a 93, despite finishing fourth.  One of the better average winning distance totals(Bernardini/Pilfer, by Deputy Minister).  Respective to run style, she’s truly one of the faster fillies. Last 3 2nd-call numbers: 97, 102, 95.  Odds at start of the wager: 30-1   Next race: Unsure
#3 CRISTINA’S JOURNEY gets edge here. She won her maiden debut followed by a win in the Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill. 2nd best CD Brisnet score of the 23 horses.  Did not look great in her last 2 races, also against Graded…it may have been attributed to a pace quicker than her own sprinting form. Similar numbers in speed to Angela Renee but has advantage in 2 areas: a run at Churchill, and a slow, but positive, 2YO campaign progression.  Hasn’t run since November.  Maybe that explains the 30-1 odds coming in.
Next race: Unsure.
TAKE CHARGE BRANDI is not the lock I figured she’s be. She does have a 4 race win streak, and races mainly in Graded company. She managed just a 74 in the aforementioned, matched with a 78 in her maiden debut, also under the twin spires.  For a sprinter, her pace numbers are actually lower than they should be.  A lot is expected of her, hoping she can keep the magic going, the same stuff that saw her win last year’s BC Juvenile Fillies with a 101 Brisnet.  Next race will be the Honeybee Stakes on 3/7
My top selection is BIRDATTHEWIRE  Racing at Gulfstream instead of her native Heartland tracks, she had some traffic trouble at the start (constant them her races) but was able to stay competitive with both. Not out of the top 4 in 6 races.   Winner of the Grade 2 Forward Gal, 2nd in the Grade 2 Davona Dale.  93 Brisnet to break maiden at Churchill in November was the higlight.  Progressed steadily pace from 75 in debut to 104 in the Davona Dale. Love the opening odds of 20-1.  Next race: Gulfstream Park Oaks, 3/28.
The wager scheme: Wins on each, exactas to each, top 2 public choices plus field in wins and exactas under and over each.

Stakes analysis/selections (Fair Grounds, Sam Houston, Santa Anita) 2/28/15

4 big stakes races today in focus as part of the Public Handicapper online contest.  There is also the Enlightened Derby Trail, the Texas Heritage Stakes at Turf Paradise. This is the one race I have not secured free past performances, therefore I cannot offer stats or analysis on this race for the series.  I can only tell you that all entrants in the race are new to the EDT, and the top 4 will receive points in the Minor division.  On Monday I’ll post an update to that division re who is still in my mythical Derby field.

I owe you a post re the Kentucky Oaks. The work is nearly done, focusing mainly on the 23 main body and not so much the field.  Post re this group will come later Saturday.

In the name of saving time, I’m posting my top 3 picks for the stakes races today, and short analysis of my overall pick in each.

DIXIE POKER ACE STAKES is a mile on the Fair Grounds turf for 4YO+, 60k purse, ungraded.

11 HOPEFUL NOTION
3 BEAUTY’S PIONEER
9 BENWILL
Probably the most competitive of the 4 races.   Hopeful Notion with 3 wins in 5 races at the distance, with top speed of 92, achieved in June 2014. Followed up that race with a 98 in an ungraded race, then bounced last time out with a 77, that one as he made his 5YO debut. It was his first race finishing out of the money in about a year.  Since that race he turned in a bullet work He’s already proven to win with a raise in class, along with being last year’s winner of this race, and switching from turf to dirt, a move which has worked in the past.  5-1 is good value here, as I think the faves will finish outside the money.

BLACK GOLD STAKES at Fair Grounds is 7.5 furlongs on turf for 3YOs. 60k, ungraded.

9 ANOTHER LEMON DROP
5 FLY FRIENDLY SKY
3 TUBA
Another Lemon Drop returns to turf after 3 dirt starts. Top score on the turf for him is 87, his maiden win last October.   Switches from Calvin Borel to top jockey James Graham, a 21% winner. After winning a 50k allowance race in December with a 96 Brisnet, he bounced to an 88, finishing 4th in the LeComte last month.  He’s since worked 4 times at Fair Grounds, alternating 4 and 5 furlongs, one work being very fast. I consider him among the best of the rest in the Derby Trail, and this race should prove his further worthiness.

Turning to Sam Houston Race Park there is the Jersey Lilly Stakes, 50k event for fillies/mares 4YO+.
6 I DAZZLE
7 KITTEN’S QUEEN
1 SATIN GOLD
I Dazzle is a 7YO mare who won a 125k optional claimer last September before shutting it down for 2014.  10-for-19 in the money on turf, with a high speed lifetime of 99, best of this field on turf.  Has won previously on class drop (comes  out of a 62.5k optional claimer) as well as stretch out (up half-furlong). Shipping from Fair Grounds will not be an issue. She’s experiencing more positive change than the others here, and the 7/2 morning line suits her.

Finally there is the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita for 3YO fillies, 8.5 furlongs, 100k.
9 GLORY
7 RATTATAPTAP
3 ENCHANTING LADY

Glory, the lone speed here, is yet another with the Sadler’s Wells DNA (Tapit/Ki Maniere) 2nd in her maiden debut at the 42k level, stretched a furlong and won vs 56k maidens.  Debuted last out on the all-weather at Golden Gate just 3 weeks ago, first time at a route in the California Oaks, nearly wiring the field, finishing 2nd. Her score of 86 was a bounce from 95 in her prior race. Drayden Van Dyke, aboard for her first 2 starts, returns for this race. Considering the strong effort in the route for this sprinter (an angle I admittedly love), she appears much the best here.

Watch for the Kentucky Oaks post later on today.  Follow me at @idealisticstats as I track these races, plus keep an eye on both future wagers.

Kentucky Derby 2015 future wager Pool 3 selections/thoughts

All of a sudden, the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, Pool 3 version, is upon us, along with the single Kentucky Oaks future wager pool.  Lots to digest, so I’ll give you the Derby selections as I see them. Refer to my prior post for how I’ve constructed the Derby field, based on my EDT system.
Here’s the spreadsheet reflecting my picks out of Pool 3.
Here are the benchmarks that were set based on the strength of the 23 individual horses:
Average winning distance of combined pedigree of at least 14.9
Class: At least one Grade 2 win.
CD Brisnet: A speed of at least an 86 rating at Churchill Downs.
Pace per runstyle: A projected score of at least 99, based on the horse’s run style.
Distance: A win at 8.5 furlongs
2YO progression: 2YO runs better from Labor Day to end of year than beforehand. Lowest peak score: 89
Pace progression: At least 3 marks here is enough for consideration.
As I refer to the system, myself, I see 9 horses with no EDT points that made the pool list.  Among those of the field selections, here’s who got the big snubs:
ANOTHER LEMON DROP is a deep closer who broke maiden in 2nd try at 9 furlongs, then finished 3rd in his dirt debut right at Churchill. Won his 2nd dirt effort going down from 75k level to 50k, tho that was his first try on a sloppy track. He set a new top and 2YO best of 96. Last time out he stretched to 1 mile 70 yards continuing to work hard at Fair Grounds. He would bounce and finish 4th in his 3YO debut, the Grade 3 LeComte. Strong pedigree compared to others (Lemon Drop Kid-Shytoe Lafeet, by King Of Kings). His 87 Brisnet at Churchill in his 3rd lifetime start is right at the benchmark for horses racing there.  Next race: Unknown.
FRAMMENTO has been entered in routes outside of maiden debut. 2nd race was his first win vs 56k maidens at 8.5 furlongs, and has alternated placings in last 4 races. 3rd in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes last time out. Pace progression is positive: fInished 2014 with 97 Brisnet vs optional claimers at 75k level. 3 bullet works in his history. 89 Brisnet in his first non-maiden race at Churchill is competitive enough for the field.  Next: Blue Grass Stakes, 4/4.
FROSTED was 2nd in 4 races, won his 3rd try at the maiden level, then 4th last time out in the Fountain Of Youth. Started to apply Lasix, then was 2nd in the Remsen and Holy Bull, both at Grade 2, both with scores of 98 Brisnet. The 98 score represent good 2YO pace progression.  Pedigree is competitive (Tapit-Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister). Last 3 2nd-call numbers for this stalking-type horse are 111, 93, 98. Next race:  Unsure. Didn’t look too good last time out. Possibly FL Derby?
IMPERIA, one of my Pool 2 choices, drops here. 2nd vs 98k maidens in debut, then won the G3 Pilgrim, then bounced in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Switching from turf to dirt, he bounced back to win with small new top of 96 in the KY Jockey Club at Churchill, then another bounce in the Risen Star last time out, that after layoff.  The score of 96 represents a good 2YO campaign wind-down, not to mention the requisite 8.5 furlong win.  Next race: Spiral Stakes 3/21.
SOUPER COLOSSAL may arguably be the biggest snub of all. 4 wins in 5 races, include the Tyro, the Sapling and the Texas Glitter in his turf debut (first race without regular rider Paco Lopez) Only blemish was his lone race against Graded company in the  BC Juvenile.  Good-looking pedigree (War Front-Soaring Emotions, by Kingmambo). Last 3 2nd-call numbers are 97, 108, 91.  Peaked at 89 Brisnet, yet to improve on this. Next race: Swale Stakes, tomorrow, 2/28
Now for my top 5 for consideration, presented Letterman-style:
#5 UPSTART starts with good breeding (Flatter-Party Silks, by Belmont winner Touch Gold). Off layoff, he won the Holy Bull and Fountain Of Youth Stakes in last 2, both at  Grade 2 and at 8.5 furlongs. Last 3 2nd-call numbers are 106,98,105.  Yet to surpass his 2nd race success, a 106 Brisnet win in the Funny Cide at Saratoga tho came close 2 races ago in the Holy Bull. 4 wins, never out of the money in 6.  Starts the future wager at 15-1. Next race:   Either the Wood Memorial on 4/4/ or the FL Derby on 3/28.
#4: DORTMUND moves up from my #5 spot in the 2nd pool.  Now undefeated in 4 races, won the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity at 8.5 furlongs, then the Robert B. Lewis after layoff, peaking with a 101 Brisnet and capping a triple pairing of Brisnet scores. Gotta love the 98 score at Churchill in 2nd lifetime race, first chance at a route. Forged small new top of 101 last time out, a good sign for the immediate future.  8-1.  Next: San Felipe Stakes on 3/7, then the Santa Anita Derby on 4/4.
#3 INTERNATIONAL STAR won the Grey at Woodbine, and comes off wins in the LeComte and the Grade 2 Risen Star, those seeing him with new tops of 94 and 97. Great way to start his 3YO campaign.   Achieved an 89 Brisnet score in his only Churchill appearance, 4th in the KY Jockey Club. The 89 represents good 2YO progression. Surprising to see him at 20-1 at the beginning of the wager. Next race: Louisiana Derby, 3/28.
#2 is TEXAS RED, who drops from the #1 position in Pool 2. Winner of the BC Juvenile, then took 3 months off, and would cut back to 7 furlongs, winning the Grade 2 San Vincente. Those 2 races represent a pair up of new tops (101, 98). Strong AWD numbers from pedigree (Afleet Alex-Ramatuelle, out of Jeune Homme). Last 3 stretch run numbers for this deep closer: 113, 99, 107. Very good pace progression at 2YO, capped by the BC win.  12-1 to start. Next race: Either the Santa Anita Derby or the Arkansas Derby on 4/11.
Top pick in this pool is LORD NELSON who ranked in 6 of the possible 8 variables. Alternating hits and misses in races, with wins in the  Grade 2 San Vincente and ungraded Speakeasy, both at Santa Anita. 5th in the KY Jockey Club, with a competitive 88 Brisnet.  Very good pedigree in place: Pulpit-African Jade, out of multiple stakes winner (none being Triple Crown races) Seeking The Gold. These also give him competitive AWD numbers. Only things to be concerned with: No wins beyond 7 furlongs. Pace is currently rather slow for his run style compared to others. But he has shown exploding and forging pace structure with a slight bounce risk for future. It’s understandable why he might be 30-1 to begin the wager but my hopes are very high for future success.  Next race is the San Felipe on 3/7
The wager structure:
Win bets on Lord Nelson, Texas Red, International Star.   Should Texas Red be worse than 9-1 in the wagering during Pool 3, I’ll make that 2nd wager on him here. If he’s close to 9-1 or better, which is certainly expected, I’ll ignore him and replace with Dortmund. Then again, if Dortmund should take more money than the 10-1 he showed in Pool 2, I’ll drop him for Upstart.
I’ll also take my top 3 and place above and below the ‘field’ selections in exactas, and include exactas to each other between the same top 3 (in this instance, I’ll keep Texas Red in).
This should be an $18 wager overall, doing $1 exacta and $2 win bets.
Here’s how I wagered Pool 2:
$2 win bets on Dortmund (10-1) Mr. Z (44-1), Imperia (24-1), El Kabeir (39-1), Texas Red (9-1)
Time to breathe.  Next post will focus on the Kentucky Oaks future wager. Beyond that, I’ll have thoughts on 4 stakes races for Saturday and a word on the next Enlightened Trail race.

Southwest Stakes selections, analysis

I scored as well as could be in one of 2 handicapping contests early on: the Derby Dollars Contest, presented by West Coast Thoroughbreds, and organized by the same folks that bring you 123bet, put up 2 contest races on Saturday. The task was to play a mythical $2 WPS wager in both races.   I scored on both, with International Star in the Risen Star (finishing 2nd but winning via DQ vs Upstart), and Itsaknockout in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes. I tied with a number of folks for getting both wins.  There are 17 races in the contest, with the first 8 being $2 wagers, the next 8 at $4, then the Derby at $6.
I’m doing the midwinter contest at www.publichandicapper.com  Scored 2 wins in 8 races thus far, for a manageable loss of 1.60. Could be worse.
Now to the non-enlightened but certanly star-worthy Southwest Stakes, a Grade 3 event at Oaklawn Park, 8.5 furlongs.  7 of the 11 horses are nominated to the Triple Crown.   7 horses also have some EDT points.
My top 3:
3 HILLBILLY ROYALTY faces stakes competition for first time after winning first 2 lifetime. Maiden win at 28k, then a 62500 optional claimer here at OP, with a 92 Brisnet for the pure sprinter.  Great average winning distance from pedigree (Langfuhr/Aptiseno, by Aptitude). Has the fast OP win and at this distance as well. He also is the lone speed, along with having the best trip coming in.  Will be one of the faves and deservedly so.
1 BAYERD won the Springboard Mile, then was 2nd in the Smarty Jones at a mile here last month.  In the money all 6 lifetime. He is a strong choice at slight value with the off-track conditions; he won the Springboard in the mud and broke maiden in good conditions. Seems to favor the rail as well.
6 FAR RIGHT won the Smarty Jones here with a 92 Brisnet, which was paired with a lifetime best 96 prior to that in the Delta Downs Jackpot. Track bias in his favor: Deep closers are winning at this distance 32% of the time. Posts 4 through 7 are winning 11% at the meet, 13% this past week.
Not a race to wager unless Bayerd takes less $ than expectedd.

Enlightened Trail and mythical Derby/Oaks fields (2/22/15)

Here’s an updated link for the Enlightened Trails in chart form:
And here’s my updated mythical Derby Field, reflecting the Turf Paradise Derby

California division:
Metaboss 1000
Cross The Line 500
Dortmund 250
Texas Red 250

East Coast:
Competitive Edge 250

Conquest Typhoon 250
Daredevil 250

South:
Ocho Ocho Ocho 200
Mr. Z 100
Far Right 50

Saratoga Healer 25

Heartland:
Recount 250
El Kabeir 250
Private Prospect 100
Imperia 100

Minor:
Why Too 1000 (new)

Ride Hard Kowboy 250 (new)
Blue Dancer 200
Highway Boss 150
Next EDT race is the Texas Heritage Stakes, 2/28, 2nd-to-last race in the Minor division.
Mythical Oaks field, updated for the Arizona Oaks results:
California:
Take Charge Brandi 500
Sunset Glow 250
Top Decile 100

East Coast
By The Moon 350

Condo Commando 275
Conquest Harlanate 250

Heartland
Quality Rocks 250

West Coast Belle 250
No Fault Of Mine 100

South
Take Charge Brandi 250
Skipalute 100

Majestic Presence 50
Danessa Deluxe 25
Minor:
S U M Racer 500 (new)
Sharla Rae 500
Next EOT race is the Florida Oaks on 3/7, South division
Next post touches upon today’s Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

Selections for Graded stakes action 2/21/15

It’s a rather busy Saturday on tap, with 7 stakes races to blog about! Here are the significances of the races for me:  4 are included in the  www.publichandicapper.com free online contest. 2 are part of the new contest by www.derbydollarscontest.com  2 races have a presence in my Enlightened Derby/Oaks Trails.  And that’s not included one other race, the Southwest Stakes, which will be the marquee race for Sunday.
I’ll present my top 3 selections for each race, and go in depth on just the top selection for each, along with a few overlays that should cash in.
We’ll start with the RISEN STAR STAKES, 8.5 furlongs at Fair Grounds, a Grade 2 event for 3YO hopefuls. All but 1 of the 10 are nominated for the TC races.
10  INTERNATIONAL STAR
6: WAR STORY
7: HERO OF HUMOR
International Star won the LeComte last out here last month, and the Grey in Woodbine last year. One of 2 classy horses in the field, he scored a lifetime and track best 94 on FG dirt of this field in the LeComte. It represented a slight increase from his 2YO best of 89 as well. The trip for this deep closer was very good, being near the pace much of the 1mile-70 yard run, even overcoming a lack of room for part of it. Through 2/19, deep closers have won 4 of 11 dirt routes during the meet; 25% wins have come from the 8 hole and later as well.
Possibly overlay with the big longshot, Hero Of Humor at 30-1. Noticing paired-up lifetime best scores last 2 races 5 races after layoff, and a nice trip besides for the sprinter, he must be considered a threat.
This is not an EDT race but it’s worth noting who has points coming in:  Imperia, one of my big favorites out of Future Wager Pool 2, has 100.  I’d love to see him score here but he may be heading for a bounce here despite layoff over 2 months, and that gap of time means his numbers are not reflective of how he can run now.   I’m very skeptical of the morning line 7-2 edge.

Next is the Turf Paradise Derby, an EDT race, allocating points to the top 4 finishers.  This race is 8.5 furlongs on TP’s dirt course and will impact the Minor division of the EDT.

Top 3:
5 Highway Boss
6 General Dixie
1 Permit to Carry
Highway Boss already has 100 points from winning the Everett Nevin Alameda County race at Pleasanton last summer. He’s burned a fair amount of money since, tho he comes out of an allowance win here from last month.  Jake Barton & Molly Pearson have 6 races together, with 4 wins and 5 placings, for an ROI of 2.57+. One of several who have won from similar class and distance moves prior to a win. This late closer finished well at a mile, being very close to the action. 2 of his 3 wins are from a middle post.
The others in my top 3 are overlay possibilities: General Dixie has improved in pace last 2 races, peaking at 75 last time out just 2 weeks ago.  Permit To Carry is freshest of those stretching out, rocketing out last time to an 81 Brisnet best for his maiden victory.
Grand Full Moon with 100 points is the only horse to score in prior EDT races (winner of the Shakopee Juvenile), and does measure up for the class and track, but overall scores rather low.
ARIZONA OAKS is the EOT race for the week, also one of the final Minor division races.  Each of the 11 horses, including 1 also-eligible, have 0 points toward the Trail.
7 FREAKIN AMAZING
10 HIP NINETY THREE
9 S U M RACER
Very close on paper between the top 3.
Freaking Amazing won a 50k maiden claimer, then a 35k juvenile fillies stakes event in December here after layoff with an 88 Brisnet. After bouncing to a 68 last time out, I expect this stalker to bounce back rather well with all his stalking speed.
Hip Ninety Three is the lone deep closer in this field of fillies, and is 3rd choice at 9/2. Winner of a 25k race last out 3 weeks ago with an 82 Brisnet, for distance of this field. Outstanding connections: Geovanni Franco has 30% win rate, and FC Frazier is at 18%. Progressed with faster paces in each of last 4 races.

We go to Gulfstream Park for 3 of the remaining 4 races:
FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES is a Grade 2 race, 8.5 furlongs. Upstart is the 8/5 favorite and has 150 points in the EDT.
5 ITSAKNOCKOUT
8 DANNY BOY
7 UPSTART

Itsaknockout won both lifetime starts here (40k maiden, 75k optional claimer), and a 7 week layoff should not deter him. Brisnet scores for this closer were 86, then 102. Gets 3rd straight middle post here.  Danny Boy is the possible overlay; making just 2nd start on dirt out of 5, stretches out from mile after 3 month layoff, steadily working out at GP. Calling for the upset over the heavily favored Upstart.

The DAVONA DALE STAKES is a mile on the GP track for 3YO fillies Grade 2.
12 CAVORTING
1 LASSOFTHEMOHICANS

6 PUCA
Here’s a race I’m seeing value in each slot. Cavorting won the Grade 2 Adirondack at Saratoga , then finished 7th in the Frizette last fall at Belmont. She is the speed of the field, with 2nd call pace numbers in her 3 races ranging from 97 to 103.  Also comes in with an excellent work tab.  Lassofthemohicans stretches a furlong, and is one of a bunch coming in from the Forward Gal Stakes last month.  1st and 2nd in 2 lifetime races here with 98 best Brisnet. 89 in last race was a bounce; should bounce back here. Track bias is favoring early runners on the rail.

The RACHEL ALEXANDRA STAKES is 8.5 furlongs at Fair Grounds, a Grade 3 event.

7 FREUDIE ANNE
5 LOVELY MARIA
1 SHOOK UP
Another race we may well see value ahead of short prices.  Freudie Anne to me is ready to win now.  3 wins in 4 races, including a near-10-length victory in a 100k stakes race at Aqueduct in December. All 4 races were against NY bred fillies.  Winning off layoff will not be an issue. Last 3 races see her in triple-digit 2nd call numbers. Also with excellent works coming in.  As close to a lock between these 7 races as I’ve guessed.
Finally, back to Gulfstream for the Canadian Turf Stakes, Grade 3, for 4YOs+ going 1 mile.
3 MR. ONLINE
5 BEST PLAN YET
13 ADIRONDACK KING
Another race with 3 value horses that should light up the toteboard.   First 2 look like overlays.  Mr. Online stretches from a 5 furlong race in December, placing 2nd in a restricted stakes race with a 95Brisnet. Was 2nd in the 2014 edition of this race. 8 for 27 lifetime on turf, with top score a 106, best of this field. Trainer Michael Pino has 7 placings in 12 Graded stakes over the last 12 months. Seems to run his best with the inner post.  Best Plan Yet is 30-1 morning-line. Not scoring well but continues to run frequently here at GP. 2 races back he set small new top of 94, then bounced to 78 last time out.

Enlightened Derby Trail divisional recap for 2/16

I’d like to provide something of a divisional recap re the Enlightened Derby and Oaks Trails as both series are down to the last dozen races.  I’m sending 4 horses per geographical division to the Derby, and 3 each for the Oaks (plus 2 from the minors). The point system is outlined in the charts, giving greater weight to 3YO races and Graded events. Ties are broken between class, purse size and then distance.

Here’s the Derby field right now by division:
California:
Metaboss 1000
Cross The Line 500

Dortmund 250
Texas Red 250
others: American Pharaoh 250
Conquest Typhoon 250
1 race remains, that being April 4th’s Santa Anita Derby. The points are 1000-500-250-125 Certainly the top 3 will have a strong say as to whom gets in the Derby.

Metaboss appears pointed to the Spiral Stakes, one of the 2 remaining Heartland division races.  No word yet on Cross The Line’s next race.  Dortmund and Texas Red may be laid off until the Santa Anita Derby.  As for others: American Pharaoh will be in the San Felipe, a non-EDT race, on 3/7, so his place on my list is questioned.  Conquest Typhoon’s next race has not been determined yet, but having 250 in this and the East Coast divisions gives him more options.
And speaking of…
EAST COAST

In:
Competitive Edge 250
Conquest Typhoon 250
Daredevil 250
Others:
Upstart 100
Samuel Deschamplain 100
I Spent It 100
One race left here, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on 4/4 .
No word yet on Competitive Edge.  Daredevil will be in the Swale Stakes on 2/28 (non-EDT). Upstart will be in this weekend’s Fountain Of Youth Stakes (non-EDT). Samuel is probably off the trail.I Spent It seems to be on but no word of his path.
SOUTH:
Ocho Ocho Ocho 200
Mr. Z  100
Far Right 50
Saratoga Healer 25
This division is just underway with 5 races still to decide who will be in.  Next such race is the Tampa Bay Derby on 3/7.     My top 4 was based on the top 4 finishers of the Delta Downs Jackpot.
Ocho will be in the San Felipe. The others? No definite plans yet.

HEARTLAND:
Recount 250

Private Prospect 100
El Kabeir 250
Imperia 100
2 races remain in this division, the Spiral on 3/21 and the Blue Grass on 4/11.
Recount and Private Prospect appear off the trail. El Kabeir will be in the Gotham on 3/7 (non EDT). Imperia will be in the Risen Star (non EDT) this weekend.  Very undecided division this one is.

Finally the Minor division has 3 races remaining: This weekend’s Turf Paradise Derby,  the Texas Heritage on 2/28 and the Private Terms on 3/14.
Blue Dancer 200
Then a whole bunch at 100 follow, with these 5 in the leading group:

Bayerd gets the edge for winning the 250k Springboard Mile. Then:
Hashtag Bourbon
Passed Due
Waha Wild
Less Than Perfect
All 4 won sprints under 7 furlongs, so the jury is out as yet. Not only that, no news on their next races.

So you’re up to date now with the EDT divisions.  Next races:  Turf Paradise Derby and Arizona Oaks, both at TP, on 2/21.  I’ll return Friday night for a preview of that race.