A year since my first ever contest cashing, in last year’s ThoroEnduro
at Remington Park, it’s been a somewhat bumpy ride attempting to repeat glory. Looking at my stats, it seems that I did very well early on…then had a run of terrible days with barely anything to cash. November 14 was my best day, picking 2 of 3 horses for strong value, close to $100 in earnings. I am finishing this year’s tournament near the back of the pack. Entering today’s 6 race finale, I am actually nearly dead-last out of 1321 survivors, and accrued earnings of $754.60. 1200 more players were eliminated. With 186 races wrapped up, that means I averaged a $4 return, out of a mythical $6 investment. The top 10 players have averaged $6.66 to $7.27 per race. Barely profitable meet if compared to actual win-place-show wagers, but fun nevertheless. The fun is over for me, as I have to look forward to paying taxes on the $1000 check I earned for last year’s 2nd place finish.
The final 2 races of the meet are involved in my Enlightened Derby and Oaks Trials. Before looking at those races, I must say that Take Charge Brandi is, well, tremendous. As I’ve stated before, I love sprinters who dominate or at least show heart in route races. She did just that, and now has the overall lead in either EOT or EDT series, with 750 points, 3 wins in the EOT itself. Feathered and Majestic Presence added to their point totals in the process.
Remington Park’s Trapeze Stakes for top 2YO fillies is the last of the EOT races for the 2YO portion of the series. Coming into the race, here are the points that have already been earned by the entrants: Lil Super Bear, 100; Strawberry Baby, 100; Donna’s Royal Slot, 10. The points for the top 4 in this ungraded stakes event are 100-50-25-10.
Just 5 horses overall outside of Take Charge Brandi have at least 200: By The Moon, Conquest Harlanate, Condo Commando, Sunset Glow, and West Coast Belle.
10 of the 11 horses here have any real shot. Here’s my top 3:
DANCING DIVA is 1st or 2nd in 3 lifetime, winning the OK Stallion Stakes here last time out with an 87 Brisnet. Previous races were run at 79 and 77. Along with that good trip last time out, both of her lifetime wins came in middle posts. Value is good at 8-1. I think she’s much better. Overlay
PERFECT FIT has 2 wins in 3 lifetime, winning a 75k optional claimer last time with a 78 Brisnet.This is paired with maiden winner at 82 Brisnet speed. Top jockey/trainer combo in the field (Berry 24%, Calhoun 25%). I measure this filly as being the speed of the field, and a nice value, as the morning-line suggests 12-1, likely because of the gain in class. Then again, winning 1st race since winning maiden does suggest the sky’s the limit. Overlay
The aforementioned STRAWBERRY BABY bounced last time out in the Clever Trevor here last month, 74 Brisnet. Coming off Bute, maybe the lack of the drug had its effect. Best average winning distance from pedigree in this field (Warrior’s Reward/Kendall Hill, by champion older horse on 2 continents, the Irish-bred horse Theatrical). Already having won gaining from maiden as well as stretching out from 7 furlongs, she should retain value in the public pools. Morning line says 8-1, which is about right.
Looks like an excellent betting race on tap.
Turning now to the Enlightened Derby Trail, and the last 2YO race for the year in the series, the Springboard Mile is worth 250k. Points here are allocated the same as in the Trapeze. Just one horse in the field has any EDT points coming in: It’ll Be Fine, 4th in the Sunday Silence, 10 points.
HIGH NOON RIDER, shipping from NY tracks, broke maiden in his 3rd effort with a dazzling 97 Brisnet, first time on dirt, on a race scheduled for turf. Best AWD numbers here (Distorted Humor/Modesty Blaise, by the legend AP Indy). I give high marks mainly because of this sprinter’s great route win last time, dueling much of the way. The 97 score was a big spike over his 76 score prior. 3-1 morning line is accurate. Great works alongsides.
PHENOMENAL PHOENIX broke maiden in 2nd lifetime start, both at Remington, both races in the early 80s. Berry in the irons is paired with trainer Donnie Von Hemel (15% wins). Track bias in favor: In 90 mile races on the dirt here, 29 of them, 32% have been won with a stalking trip. Morning line is 12-1. I think he’s an overlay, worth more like 5-1.
SHOTGUN KOWBOY is the pregame favorite, with wins in the Clever Trevor and the OK Juvenile, plus a 3rd in the Kip Devillle, plus a strong win in his maiden debut. Strong pace numbers, with an 89 last time out, which actually may present a bounce, having raced in the 90s prior to that. Proven to win from gain in class and stretch out, plus it being 5 weeks since last stretchout, must consider.
Both the EOT and EDT series go dark until January. In the next post after these races, I’ll give an update re the points.
*Woke up too late to do day 4 of the Festivus Challenge at Tampa Bay Downs, so I’m out of that contest.
*Will give you a look at the college bowl participants and predict the winners in a later post.
*Not pleased that no players got into the Baseball Hall Of Fame and Museum via the new Veterans Committee, tho I like that Dick Allen did come closest.