Hopkins/Kovalev, Sturm/Stieglitz boxing stat analysis

Well it’s about time I post about sports other than horse racing, right? Generally the sports I like outside of the ponies that get blog interest are baseball, boxing, tennis, golf and auto racing.   Tonight, 2 big boxing matches to cover for you.Bernard Hopkins v Sergey Kovalev duel for the WBA, IBF and WBO light heavyweight titles in Atlantic City’s Boardwalk Hall.

Hopkins is 55-6-2 with 32 wins and 0 losses by KO.  Ranked as the top light heavyweight boxer by Boxrec, and #1 (tho not champion) by The Ring magazine. It will be his 5th fight in this arena, site of one of his losses (Chad Dawson, 2012).  Won his last 3 fights, each by decision, these ahead of a loss and a no-decision.  Last KO win was vs Oscar de la Hoya in 2004. This will be his 8th consecutive fight vs opponent with either 0 or 1 loss.   Of note, judge Clark Sammartino was also present for “The Alien” ’s win vs Antonio Tarver in 2006.

Generally he’s on the upswing, with sharp punching power and will make the right punches at the right time.  Only drawback might be his willing to continue a long fight as he usually does.
As for Krusher Kovalev, it’s just his 7th fight scheduled for 12. Lifetime he’s 25-0-1, with 23 wins by KO. Ranked #1 in Russia and #2 in the world by Boxrec for the division, and also #2 by The Ring.
3rd consecutive fight in NJ, 2nd time at Boardwalk Hall. None of his fights since 2010 have gone to the late stages. This will be his 4th WBO light heavyweight title defense.
His cycles are rather opposite to Hopkins , with just slight delivery in punching power, tho seems have to more passion in the ring than his opponent. I’m not sure it will translate to a win. I figure he’s as weak as possible physically.If you’ve been waiting for a KO from Hopkins, tonight may be your night.

Felix Sturm vs Robert Stieglitz is the other main event, 12 rounds in the middleweight category. Referee Juergen Langos was once a judge for a prior Sturm victory.Sturm is 39-4-2, 18 wins and 1 loss each from KO. The German native has fought almost exclusively at home for all but a handful of fights. Top middleweight in the country according to Boxrec, #6 worldwide.  Tonight is his 4th fight at the Porsche Arena; previously he scored 2 TKO wins and one decision win.  Last 7 fights have a checkered record: 2 losses, 1 no-decision, 1 draw, 2 wins.

Sturm was in a triple low the other day, now in better shape physically and improving. Also having some trouble his decision making and psyche, so expectations for a win should be kept in check.
Stieglitz is #3 in The Ring Magazine’s list of super middleweights, and is #2 in Boxrec’s list, and #5 in the world.  The Russian native has also fought in Germany the great majority of this career.  It’s his first time fighting at Porsche Arena in Stuttgart. Won 6 of his last 7, 5 by KO. Most of his KO wins come in the late rounds of 12 round fights, most of the others in the middle rounds.
Steiglitz’s cycles were great a few days ago, but today he’s experiencing a double critical day, tough one for decision making and for handling his emotions. His power may be optimal but will not be consistent at all. Likely he will be prone to fouls or points lost for behavior.   Decision making is not to be relied on today.
With both fighters having trouble connecting with punches, this could end up going to decision. I’m giving it to Sturm as he’s not at least having to face a double critical day.

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