4 LOGAN’S LILY won his last 2 races. Trainer Ron Grieves has 11 wins and 20 placings this year with horses debuting at a route, for a 2.96 ROI. Continually forged lifetime bests in each of 5 races lifetime, peaking at 66 last out, with a nice stalking trip. Odds: 12/1. My odds: 20-1. Dark horse.
6 CENTREFIRE won a 50k province-bred stakes event here last time out, breaking maiden status in the process, with a Brisnet score of 82. He has also forged new best scores in each of 4 races. Best average winning distance scores from pedigree (North Light/Golden Made, by Allen’s Prospect). Odds: 6/1. My odds agree completely.
7 CAPATALISM has 2 wins and 1 2nd, convincingly winning his last 2 at the 50k stakes level. Brisnet scores of 82 and 83 in those 2 races are the best at the track of this field. He also benefits from having top jockey and trainer in the field (Rico Walcott, 32% wins, and Greg Tracy, 39%). He is the lone speed here. Class, distance, workout adjustment should be no issue. ML odds make him the 2/1 favorite. I think he’ll take even more money. Favorite.
11 REGAL ORCHID as also-eligible horse draws into the field with the scratch of 10 NEVER LOSE HOPE. REGAL ORCHID defeated state-bred maiden claimers last time. Paired up 2 Brisnet scores in the 60s in last 2 races. Odds: 15/1. My odds: 20/1. Dark horse.
My top 4 are
4 Logan’s Lily
Looking forward to next weekend which is Breeders Cup weekend. On the Saturday I am planning to cover events at Emerald Downs, as there will be something of a party there, plus simulcasting of the BC races. I am not sure I will be available on the Friday half of the weekend to cover the featured races that day.