Canadian Juvenile Stakes analysis

With today’s running of the Canadian Juvenile Stakes at Northlands Park, Edmonton, BC, we are now into the latter half of the Enlightened Derby Trail.  This race, the 20th of 39 on the trail is for 2YOs, going a miile, for a 50k purse. It’s the final race that takes place north of the 48 states. None of these horses have raced at a route before, and none have raced beyond this track.  Here are the contenders as I see them:
4 LOGAN’S LILY won his last 2 races. Trainer Ron Grieves has 11 wins and 20 placings this year with horses debuting at a route, for a 2.96 ROI. Continually forged lifetime bests in each of 5 races lifetime, peaking at 66 last out, with a nice stalking trip. Odds: 12/1. My odds: 20-1. Dark horse.
6 CENTREFIRE won a 50k province-bred stakes event here last time out, breaking maiden status in the process, with a Brisnet score of 82. He has also forged new best scores in each of 4 races. Best average winning distance scores from pedigree (North Light/Golden Made, by Allen’s Prospect). Odds: 6/1. My odds agree completely.
7 CAPATALISM has 2 wins and 1 2nd, convincingly winning his last 2 at the 50k stakes level. Brisnet scores of 82 and 83 in those 2 races are the best at the track of this field. He also benefits from having top jockey and trainer in the field (Rico Walcott, 32% wins, and Greg Tracy, 39%).  He is the lone speed here. Class, distance, workout adjustment should be no issue. ML odds make him the 2/1 favorite. I think he’ll take even more money. Favorite.
11 REGAL ORCHID as also-eligible horse draws into the field with the scratch of 10 NEVER LOSE HOPE. REGAL ORCHID defeated state-bred maiden claimers last time. Paired up 2 Brisnet scores in the 60s in last 2 races.  Odds: 15/1. My odds: 20/1. Dark horse.
My top 4 are
7 Capatalism
6 Centrefire
4 Logan’s Lily
11 Regal Orchid
This is looking like a true one-horse race.

Looking forward to next weekend which is Breeders Cup weekend. On the Saturday I am planning to cover events at Emerald Downs, as there will be something of a party there, plus simulcasting of the BC races. I am not sure I will be available on the Friday half of the weekend to cover the featured races that day.

Watch for a geographic divisional update of the EOT/EDT races after BC coverage as well.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s