Here I examine this week’s Enlightened Derby Trail races, and thoughts about adopting a trainer and horse as official favorites, and how it’s become rather necessary for me.
Taking you back to 2007, when I began the matter of attending the local tracks in NYC, I fondly recall the day as July 7, and there was certainly enough people wanting to bet on #7 in the 7th race. First race I ever wagered, I hit a few straight tickets, and I became hooked. In race 2, one of the horses I may or may not have wagered on was Charles Fipke’s Tale Of Ekati, making his fateful debut…which you can see here
Here is the page on Bloodhorse http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-register/stallions/136014/tale-of-ekati
Something about his workouts must have been attractive enough for the public to bet the first-time starter down to even money. I only recalled the horse later when he was entered in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, which he managed a 4th place finish. His career would continue to 2 of the Triple Crown races, and was entered in Graded races for his entire career outside of the maiden race I and 13,000-plus bore witness to. He showed some trouble in a number of trips but for the majority of those races managed to survive those, and even win some. How can one not love a classy horse who often finds his/her way into the money even if he, or she, doesn’t win, at the top level?
So why the adoption? I guess it’s because it’s a kinda personal connection, even though I have nothing but my first live race visit to go on. You tend to remember the first horses you see that win, and especially those that win by 7 lengths.
I’m tracking all the progeny of TOE, and will report on notable workouts and upcoming entries….maybe even fill you in with analysis of races his 2YOs are in. I’m happy because this is his first crop, and he’s ranked #13th by Bloodhorse in that category He’s got 6 winners, and one with 2 wins named Ekati’s Phaeton. 2 of TOE’s fillies are in action on the 25th, one on the 27th.
As for trainers, I’m going to adopt KIaran McLaughlin, who has a long history of racing winners in several countries. I believe he trains many horses for the NY tracks, as he’s based very close to NYC. I chose him for study in part because he helped to inspire the Enlightened Derby and Oaks Trails. You can read the quote that started it all in the EDT/EOT page of the website. I wanted to choose a NY-based trainer because I figure to access more free past performances from those running there.
I still have my copy of Dave Litfin’s book “Expert Handicapping: Winning Insights Into Betting”. He advocates clipping past performances of horses that were to win races of the trainers I’m tailing, and note certain variables besides. So this will be, from hereon in, my task…and we’ll see what tendencies present themselves!
4 of 42 horses who scored on my Trail were nominated for this week’s EDT race, the Fitz Dixon Jr. Memorial, run at Presque Isle Downs, 6.5 furlongs for 2YOs. 3 of the horses made the show, based on lifetime earnings:
Duff, 3rd in the Mountaineer Juvenile,
Bourbon Cowboy, 4th in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and
Less Than Perfect, 4th in the Summer Stakes
The one that didn’t make the cut was Gotta Get Paid, who was 2nd in the Evangeline Downs Star and likewise in the Mountaineer Juvenile.
For the next post I’ll give you my analysis of contender for the Fitz Dixon, and, if possible, the TOE fillies in their races for Thursday.