Arlington International selections 9/21/14

I’m back it with to provide some selections in their daily contest.    Yesterday at Belmont I had 3 winners to start the card, then matters trailed badly, as I finished somewhere back in the pack. I’m aiming for a stronger showing today.
The challenge with multicapper is that I have to be psychic…to get my top 3 in as exact order as possible.  I don’t know how some people manage to get pretty close race in and out.
Here are my top 3 for the 9 races at Arlington. I had factored in all-weather, rain, no also-eligibles, and all main track only selections in this mix as I am anticipating an off track, always dangerous to assume in advance when you can’t change picks later:
Race 1: 2-3-6. 5 was my third choice, but is scratched. I actually am not allowed to get the post-time favorite for a scratched horse, so only my top 2 count.
Race 2: 5-4-6
Race 3: 7-3-6  7 is a scratch. I’d play 1 after 3 and 6.
Race 4: 6-3-2 2 is a scratch. 7 should replace.
Race 5: 4-9-6  With 9 as the scratch, make it 4-6-3
Race 6: 6-5-7
Race 7: 2-1-8
Race 8: 3-1-6  3 is a scratch, so I’d go with 1-6 -4. This might keep Scat N’ Go, the 1, as a value pick on top, the only I have on this card.
Race 9: 3-11-9

Follow me at @idealisticstats on that Twitter thing as I have picks later for Emerald and Remington.  There are just 4 more days at Emerald for me to reach the cash position but I’m $100 away from that mark. Here’s hoping I can score a few bombs, which have  been absent from me a while.  At Remington, I’m just happy to survive in their contest.

1 Comment

  1. “I don’t know how some people manage to get pretty close race in and out.”

    Tell me about it! It’s uncanny the way some of them perform be it a chalky day or lots of bombs. I have seen some of those ‘stars’ really crap out on occasion, so I’ll reserve the tin-foil-hat for now. (-;

    I did want to disagree with your position(from an earlier post) about the scoring system. While an odds based system might mimic what the player experiences at the windows, their system is more like the daily newspaper columnist picks. Since our input is being aggregated into a ‘most likely winners’ tip sheet, it is a different animal from most of the contests we are used to playing. I’m looking at it as an exercise that will help in developing a better ability at constructing efficient, low priced horizontal tickets. Picking up some cash along the way will help justify the time spent on them.

    The Del Mar contest seemed to reward the exact opposite approach. I started with very conservative bets, not wanting to lose ground, at the expense of any big returns. About halfway through the contest I shifted tactics because of the seeming insurmountable lead of some of the players. I still looked for horses that I could make a realistic case for, but they had to have at least some price to them. There was no way to catch up getting 2/1, even if that was every day. I caught a couple of bombs, one was a first turf route for a filly who’s breeding suggested she would stay, and I got 28/1. She was ignored since there were experienced, successful routers in a large field. Another was a filly who had been a disappointment for quite a while, but as a two year old had a win and a second on the poly. Again, a nice hit in the 29/1 range. Had I gone all in on those two, I would have done better than the 99th place(that I was pretty happy with), but still only got the same hat that I’m expecting in the mail any day now. To have been in contention for the top prizes, I would have had to have used that approach from the beginning and had some racing luck.

    Elimination contests are a real pain in balancing the two different approaches to be successful.

    Good luck at Emerald, I’m pulling for You find those bombs on this last weekend coming up!

    Stokes State

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