Enlightened Derby/Oaks Trail: Stakes analysis part 2

Before we continue, I stumbled upon a handicapping contest at multicapper.com  They have contests at various tracks. Signing up as a handicapper, I get points and ‘reputation’ based on my accuracy of picking the top 3. The rub? I have to pick them by midnight Central Daylight Time…so I’m at the mercy of changes.   There’s one prize of $100 for Belmont, and one prize of either $25 or $50 for the others. I wish there were more prizes.  Here’s my top 3 on today’s Belmont Park card:
Race 1  7-4-6
Race 2 3-9-1
Race 3 6-3-5
Race 4 9-1-4
Race 5 1-9-7
Race 6 6-8-3
Race 7 4-8-6
Race 8 4-1-2
Race 9 6-5-2
Race 10 2-1-6

Back to the standard action:

Returning to Arlington Park, there is the Arlington-Washington Futurity, 7 furlongs for 2YOs. This Grade 3 race will offer bonus points for the top 4.
2 ONE GO ALL GO, I have no real input on. He won his debut at 6 furlongs rather convincingly, despite some bumping.  He since put up a bullet work.   ML odds :5/1. My odds: 20-1. Avoid.

4 RECOUNT was 3rd in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile, a prior EDT race. That race was an 85 Brisnet, first route race. He was more impressive in his maiden debut, with a 91, going 5.5 furlongs on AP’s all-weather surface. That score is best of this field for the track and surface. Returning to a middle post which can only help.  ML odds: 3/1. My odds: 7/2. Contender.

5 PRIVATE PROSPECT is undefeated in 3, winning at 4.5, 5.5 and 8 furlongs with increasing speeds (79 to 87). Winner of the Prairie Meadows Juvenile and a 75k stakes race before that. I like the pace progression in the stakes races. ML odds: 7/2. My odds: 9/2. Contender
6 BOURBON COWBOY ran dueling 83s in 5.5 furlong sprints here this summer, breaking maiden in 2nd. Trainer Richard Scherer has 8 wins and 11 placings with horses who broke maiden last time out, for an ROI of 6.30. ML odds: 4/1. My odds: 20-1. Avoid. 
7 IKE WALKER graduated in 2nd race with an 82 above a 73, winning a 31k maiden by 7.25. furlongs. Best AWD numbers (Bellamy Road/Quite Familiar, by Hold That Tiger). Channing Hill has 18% winners, and trainer Michael Stidham with 25%. This sprinter is the true speed of the field, and has 3 works since last race, 2 are bullets. Easily had the best trip of the field coming in. Morning line: 9/2. My odds: 9//5. Favorite, contender, maybe overlay.  
Top 4:
1 7 Ike Walker
2 4 Recount
3 5 Private Prospect
4 2 One Go All Go
Overlays: Possibly 7  
Not much value but this is no lock cinch for favorites unless the public bet it the way I call it.
Not on the EDT, but involved in a fantasy handicapping contest is the Grade 2 Super Derby, back at Louisiana Downs. It’s 9 furlongs for 3YOs, 400k at stake.
1 JESSICA’S STAR is 1st or 2nd in all 7 lifetime starts, with his best finish in the Grade 3 Iowa Derby 2 starts back, 95 Brisnet, then paired with a 97 2nd place finish in the Ohio Derby, a smalll new top score for him. 4 works at AP since then, last 2 were quite fast.  ML odds: 3/1. My odds: 51.
3 IDE BE COOL won his first 7 races, then nearly wired the field last out, finishing 2nd in the 100k Prelude. His run of 104 in the LA Juvenile last year is the best on this trak of this field, as well as best for an ‘off’ surface. I’ve rated the sprinter the fastest of the field. Should be able to bounce back after running scores of 84, then 96 then 86 last time. Impressed by the sprinting effort in the 8.5 furlong Prelude.  ML odds: 15-1. My odds: 6-5. Favorite, contender, and big overlay.
4 VICAR’S IN TROUBLE is the talk of the card here, consistently running in Graded company. Wins in the LA Derby and the LeComte. 3 wins, 7 placings, the one blemish being his last-place finish in the Run For The Roses. His 104 in the LA Derby is best of the distance. Going from 92 to 103 in the WV Derby could suggest a bounce, despite the very good trip over 9 furlongs.  Inherently he has the opportunity to win, but does not have the numbers to win today. ML odds: 9/5. My odds: 20-1.  Avoid.
5 LOUISIANA FLYBOY was reclaimed by Patrick Mouton, and promptly won in 2 ungraded stakes. He’s 24% wins here, along with jockey Richard Eramia with 29%. 1st or 2nd in all but one race, the Grade 2 Nashua.  ML odds: 10/1. My odds: 6-1. Contender overlay.
6 VICTORY NOR DEFEAT won maiden debut, and also a 16k optional claimer last out. Last 2 Brisnet scores are a big pair up, 95  and 97. Best AWD numbers from pedigree (Unbridled’s Song/Daisyago, by Affirmed). ML odds: 8-1. My odds: 10-1.  Outside contender.
7 ALAMO HEIGHTS won the aforementioned Prelude last time out, spiking to new top of 88 Brisnet.  3 wins, 4 placings in 6 starts, middle post is helpful.  ML odds: 12/1. My odds: 20-1.  Avoid.
10 EAST HALL won the Ohio Derby last out moving from a 90 to 97 Brisnet. It was his first race won in over a year. ML odds: 5/1. My odds: 20-1. Avoid.
Top 4:
1 3 Ide Be Cool
2 1 Jessica’s Star
3 5 Louisiana Flyboy
4 6 Victory Nor Defeat
Overlays: 3,5
Another good race that should produce nice prices.  Speed just ahead of the deep closers.

Finally, we go north of the 48 to the Winnipeg Futurity at Assiniboia Downs. This race is part of the EDT as well. 50k on the line for 2YOs going 6 furlongs. Just 5 going at it.
1 SLY GOLD won the Osiris in last start with a nice 84 Brisnet. Prior to that, maiden debut in the Graduation, finishing 3rd with a 66. Best track and distance speed of this short field, and certainly is the class. Adolfo Morales has 27% wins, along with trainer Blair Miller’s 14% wins. Rail post will help his chances.  ML odds: 2/1. My odds agree, and he’s a virtual lock.
2 BLUE DANCER won his maiden debut, then was 2nd in the Edmonton Juvenile. Best AWD numbers (Bluegrass Cat/Two Halos, by Saint Ballado). Great stalking speed, and will be the speed of the field.  ML odds: 3/1. My odds: 5/1.  Contender.
3 I’M A FLASHY GIRL, the filly, was 2nd in the Debutante filly stakes here 2 weeks ago. Moved up from 56 to 68 Brisnet, tho behind her maiden debut of 82. Pretty good closing trip last time.  ML odds: 9/2. My odds: 10-1. Outsider.
4 TOTAL GOLD is a first-time starter. Trainer Jodi Radul has 2 wins and 4 placings this year with horses not in Graded Stakes, for return of 4.69. Also has 2 wins and 5 placings with 8 2YOs, for return of 6.36.  Mixed works but last one was local and a bullet. ML odds: 6/1. My odds: 9/2.
Top 4:
1 1 Sly Gold

2 4 Total Gold
3 2 Blue Dancer
4 3 I’m A Flashy Girl
No overlays here.

There you have it. My radio life is calling but I’ll monitor my selections and update here when necessary plus on Twitter at @idealisticstats   Also I have Remington and Emerald contest picks later on.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s