Enlightened Derby Trail: Del Mar Futurity

Final day of the Del Mar summer meet is upon us. It’s also the end of the road for the Polytrack, which will be replaced with a dirt track after 2014.  I can’t wait.  If you’re running horses in top company compared to other tracks, leading to Graded stakes and top races, you have to have a dirt surface. Otherwise you have all-weather/Tapeta/Poly specialists who then have to race the Triple Crown series and suddenly back out because the dirt course is somewhat unfamiliar to that horse.  And this year I decried the use of Poly at Keeneland, with pivotal races on the Triple Crown trail, tho they are now switching to a dirt track for next year. 
I’ve taken a look at 3 the 5 races that are part of the EFT and EDT series on Saturday.  The races at Louisiana Downs haven’t revealed their starters as of this typing.  In the Arlington-Washington Futurity at Arlington International, 3 horses from 2 prior EDT races battle again.
 
One race in the Enlightened Derby Trial today, the Del Mar Futurity, in focus. 7 furlongs for 2YO colts.  This Grade 1 race grants extra points than the minor tracks to the top 4 finishers. All 9 starters are new to my EDT races.
2 OH NEWMAN was 3rd in maiden debut here last month.   Trainer Phil D’Amato has 4 wins and 5 placings in 7 Graded stakes this year, for a 5.23 ROI. Also a 2.47 ROI with horses in 2nd career race.    ML odds: 8-1. My odds: 20-1.  Dark horse.
3 INEXCESS TIME won a 75 maiden race in 2nd attempt last month. Trainer  Walter Solis has 2 wins, 4 placings in 7 Graded stakes this year, 5.63 ROI. ML odds: 15-1. My odds: 20-1.  Dark horse. 
5 IRON FIST with Mike Smith aboard (23% wins) and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer (22%). Forged best race after a 2nd place maiden finish here last month, an 87 Brisnet score.   ML odds: 5-1.  My odds: 20-1. Dark horse.
6 HENRY’S HOLIDAY has best average winning distance numbers from pedigree (Harlan’s Holiday/Ford Gallop, by Victory Gallop). 2nd in the Best Pal last month, 4th in the Santa Anita Juvenile before that. Maiden debut his best effort still. Deep closer looked good in the Best Pal, close throughout the 6.5 furlong race. ML odds: 6-1. My odds: 8-1. Contender at a price.
7 RED BUTTON won a 75k maiden race in 2nd start, in July, forged an 83 Brisnet.  ML odds: 8-1. My odds: 13-1.
8 HOLIDAY CAMP was last of 6 in the SA Juvenile with a tough trip at the start. He was laid off since that race then was given 8 workouts, the majority of them here at Del Mar, and very fast; last one was a bullet work.  Respective of post position he might fire well again as the speed on the outside.  ML odds: 9/2. My odds agree completely. Contender.
9 SKYWAY won the Grade 2 Best Pal, was 3rd in the Bashford Manor before that. His 91 in the Best Pal is best of all figures of this field on this track, and he’s certainly the class of the field, along with the speed. That speed is most generated by him on the backstretch. ML odds: 7/2. My odds: Even-money.
My top 4:
1 9 Skyway
2 8 Holiday Camp
3 6 Henry’s Holiday
4 7 Red Button
Ultimately this shapes up as a 1-horse race, with little to no value attached.
 
On Saturday I am to cover the other EDT/EFT races, along with the Super Derby at Louisiana Downs.

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