Western and Southern Open men/women finals analysis

The Western & Southern Open concludes with the men’s and women’s singles a bit later on today. Here’s how I see each final.
Top seed Serena Williams takes on #9 Serbian native Ana Ivanovic for the women’s title.
Serena is pursuing her 4th title of the year, winning at Brisbane, Miami, and Rome. She had already lost to Ivanovic in the Australian Open. Ivanovic  is also pursuing her 4th title of 2014, with wins in Auckland, Monterrey and Birmingham.
 
Comparing lifetime stats, here’s who has the edge:
1st serve in goes to Ivanovic, 61% to Serena’s 58%
2nd serve return points won also goes to Ivanovic 57.6% to 56.2.
All other stats are in Serena’s favor.
 
Head to head, it’s all Serena, a 6-1 edge, and 12-5 in sets.  The last 3 matches went the distance. It’s their first meeting in a final.
Here are the benchmarks for Ana to win:
1st service points won: 73%
2nd service points won: 57%
Return points won: 40%
Net approaches: 74%

And here come the cycles, Ana first:

Here’s Serena:
Surely the fans will get their money’s worth and see a 4th straight 3-setter between these ladies.
I have Serena winning this one in 3 sets.
 
******
Roger Federer and David Ferrer duel for the men’s title in the late afternoon.  Roger has but 2 titles this year, at Halle and Dubai.  Ferrer has but one title, winning on his favored clay surface at Buenos Aires. Roger is a 5-time champion in Cincinnatti
In the comparison of lifetime stats, it’s no contest; Roger has the edge on every stat, tho it’s a virtual in terms of deciding sets. Ferrer has a slight 64% to 63.9% edge in those instances.
 
Focusing the stats on 2014 here’s another look: Ferrer only has edge here:
1st serve return points won, 35% to 32%
2nd serve return points won, 56% to 50%
Break points converted: 45% to 41%
Return games won: 35% to 26%
Return points won: 44% to 40%
All other stats go Roger’s way.
Head to head, Roger has won every battle, 16 of 16, with a 32-5 set record.
Naturally I’ve had to figure out how Ferrer can actually get on the scoreboard based on the stats.
Comparing each of Ferrer’s losses, he has to surpass these marks to have a real chance
1st serve: 72%
Aces-to double faults +/-: +2
1st service points: 70%
2nd service points: 64%
Return points won: 41% 
 
   
Here’s how Ferrer looks on the graph:
 
And now for Roger:
 

Could this be the day Ferrer end the string of losses against Roger? I dare say yes, in 3 sets.

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