Happy to be back providing analysis in advance. If you’ve followed me on Twitter, I’ve given you instant analysis and picks of races. Here with the notebook, I can give a little more time and thoughtfulness without the pesky internal keyboard to work with.
Also if you look at the page devoted to the Enlightened Derby/Oaks Trails, you’ll see a much-needed update to the results.
I’ve sunk to 12th place thus far in the Emerald Downs online contest with about 6 weeks left to go. I’ve also been playing the daily contest race for Del Mar, and am somewhere in the top 15%. I am playing 3 across the board bets plus a few more $ with overlays on each of the contest races. Remington Park comes back into focus later this month too, the site of my biggest contest win to date, $1000.
The Adirondack Stakes involves outstanding 2YO fillies, 7 in all, going 6 furlongs on the dirt. Here are my contenders:
WONDER GAL is easy to root for after a 14 length victory in her debut. I actually don’t have the lone closer ranked well at all compared to these, but nevertheless has the classy win, the $125k effort earned at Belmont last month. Morning line: 3-1. My odds: 20-1. Dark horse.
PHOENIX PARK broke maiden at first asking with a head-length victory at 4.5 furlongs at Parx. Only horse off layoff in the field. Also, note that all horses except this one are running in the generally same posts as prior races. Phoenix Park gets 2nd shot with an inside port, after winning from rail last time. I think this a big sneaky advantage. Morning line 15-1. My odds: 8-5. Contender, and overlay.
ANGELA RENEE has John Velazquez (17% wins) and Todd Pletcher (28% wins). Unlike the others entered, had to endure a wide trip last out. But she has the best work tab of the field, with 4 Saratoga workout, 1 recent fast. Morning line 5-2. My odds: 9-2. Contender.
TAKE CHARGE BRANDI has best average winning distances from pedigree (Giant’s Causeway/Charming, Seeking The Gold). 2nd place finish here on July 18th, in the Grade 3 Schuylerville, 85 Brisnet. Improved on 78 Brisnet in her maiden debut. Morning line 10-1. My odds: 9-2, contender and overlay.
CAVORTING has best early speed figures of the field, a 103 first-call number in debut. Won that race by 11 going 6 furlongs at Belmont last month. Might burn out tho with this type of field. Morning line 7-2. My odds: 8-1. Outsider.
EMPRESSIVE HUMOR has this ROI angle: Joel Rosario has worked with Steve Assmussen 6 races in the last 60 days, earning 2 wins, 3 in money, for decent ROI of 2.43. Earned her debut win at 5 furlongs by a neck, right here last month. Morning line: 8-1. My odds: 13-1. Outsider, best stay away from.
I rank the horses this way:
2 Phoenix Park
4 Take Charge Brandi
3 Angela Renee
The Saratoga Special is a Grade 2 sprint for 2YOs. Here’s how I see it:
I SPENT IT has something of an edge having Javier Castellano (24%) and Anthony Dutrow (25%) involved. Doesn’t rank in any other variable for me. Morning line 7-2. My odds: 28-1. No chance.
MR. Z was 2nd in the Sanford Stakes (grade 3) last month here, with a troubled trip and a 92 Brisnet. That score was well past his debut of an 81. I’m suspecting a bounce here. Morning line 5-1. My odds: 20-1. No chance.
NONNA’S BOY has best average winning distance from pedigree (Distorted Humor/Nonna Mia, Empire Maker). 4th in the Sanford. Also outranked in other variables. Morning line 4-1. My odds: 20-1. No chance
CINCO CHARLIE is the experienced of these, with 3 races. 3rd in the Sanford, and winner of another Grade 3 race at Churchill. The win there was 94 Brisnet, later paired with a 90 in the Sanford. I’ve rated him fastest among the sprinters. Looked good in the Sanford, no trouble. Morning line 9-2. My odds: 9-5. Contender, maybe overlay.
STANFORD won debut race, 40k maiden race at Monmouth. 4 works since that race, last 2 at Saratoga, and fast ones at that. Morning line 12-1. My odds: 8-1. Outside contender, possible overlay.
CLEVELAND SOUND won debut race at Delaware. Borderline ROI of 2.05 in recent races with Irad Ortiz and Graham Motion involved, including 4 wins and 10 in the money for the last 60 days. Morning line: 15-1. My odds: 28-1 No chance.
MAJESTIC AFFAIR won convincingly in debut at Canterbury. ROI of 2.73, 2 wins and 5 in the money out of 7 races in the last 60 days for Jose Lezcano and Chad Brown. Morning line: 8-1. My odds: 28-1. No chance.
WV JETSETTER ships from Lone Star Park, with 3 races there, 2 wins and 1 show. Pair of 87s in the latter 2 races. Good trip going 5 furlongs last time in a 100k stakes race victory. Morning line: 10-1. My odds: 7-1, best of the rest of these, maybe overlay.
I rank my top 4 as:
7 Cinco Charlie
11 WV Jetsetter
3 Mr. Z.
As usual, I play win bets on any horse in my top 3 worse than 5-1, plus any overlays, and exactas within my top 3, along with exactas involving favorites over overlays